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The amount of speculators' bearish, or short, positions in
10-year Treasury futures exceeded bullish, or long, positions by
394,689 contracts on Jan. 10, according to the CFTC's latest
Commitments of Traders data.
A week earlier, speculators held 344,931 net short positions
in 10-year T-note futures.
Net shorts in five-year T-note futures and Eurodollar
futures among speculators also climbed to record highs in the
latest week, while speculative T-bond net shorts rose to their
highest level since March 2012, according to CFTC data.
Net shorts in federal funds futures among speculators rose
to their highest since August 2015.
The rise in net shorts among these futures contracts
suggested this group of market participants believes bond prices
will resume their fall despite their rebound since mid-Dec
Next Resistance Level is right around 151'25 so I mean it is good for a long up until that point. I honestly think we need a pullback after the blowoff top so I wouldnt be surprised to see ZB trade all the way back above 155 and possibly 160. I would take it one day at a time obviously because I have no idea if it will even make it past 152. For right now I think it gets their. If we get a close back above the 50 DMA then I think those higher targets can be achieved but it got rejected pretty easily on its first test of the 50 DMA, and on the fall we have not even made it back to the previous lows and we are starting to see buyers step in , so my guess we might have another test of the 50 DMA which is right at 150'30 so pretty close. IF we get rejected their i will be shocked and you can forget about 151'25 and the 153'20-154 area. I think we get through it for right now because I believe we need a retracement on the bonds possibly back up to 162'07 which is the 50% line from Hi to LO. Even at 162'07 this thing is a short trade all day , the higher it gets the better. The trend is down but I believe in its current phase it needs a dead cat bounce. Anyone that trades this one instrument alone for the next few years will become super filthy rich IMO. GL to ALL
SO just to update yesterday's action....we ran up the 50 DMA again and got rejected, we hit a high of 150'24 and reversed. It still has not made new lows, but this does not look good in terms of reaching higher levels. I am not sure if their is a fed meeting or something tomorrow but maybe we will get our answer then. GL. UPDATE 1-31-17, todays close looks pretty solid and it will be over the 50 DMA, so now 152 and higher targets are coming into play. GL YALL
