number as usual to force the imminent QE3 till right before the election I imagine. QE is the only thing holding markets together. The artificial level of say 14,500 pointed to just over the teleprompter would be a salve to fools, wouldn't it?

New poll on forum homepage. Is the next QE/Twist already priced in? Will markets move lower once announced? Or is it not yet completely priced in, and markets will move higher still once announced?

Please vote on homepage and discuss in this thread.

Mike

Big Mike 

New poll on forum homepage. Is the next QE/Twist already priced in? Will markets move lower once announced? Or is it not yet completely priced in, and markets will move higher still once announced? Please vote on homepage and discuss in this thread. Mike

imho there's a huge difference between qe and twist.

an announcement of qe 3 could mean higher prices (very short term) as traders would buy (or cover short), but investors would sell. and so would I.

an announcement of another twist is less emotional. some would be disappointed, some relieved and some confused. and at the end of the day, market would continue to climb higher to reach a more fair value.

that said, I don't think I can participate in the poll

My opinion which I shared here

Quoting 

Well we know markets continually evolve. So the latest pattern is front running The Fed. I guess it's a new twist on buy the rumor, sell the news. Once an official 'twist 2' or QE3 is announced, I believe the consensus is we will start moving lower. Which just blows my mind a bit... Market is forward looking, so we are looking for a (now expected) QE. Once it hits, we look forward some more --- which tells us there won't be another new QE for a while -- so that means turn lower/bearish. Mike

Mike

Silvester17 

an announcement of another twist is less emotional. .... and at the end of the day, market would continue to climb higher to reach a more fair value.

Can you expand on your thinking on this? I was using 'twist' as a general term fitting anything that is not "QE3" but some "twist" on what QE3 would be.

Fed already announced an extension thru December for the "phase 2" of the current Twist.

Fed Expands Operation Twist by $267 Billion Through 2012 - Bloomberg

Bloomberg Video

Mike

Big Mike 

Can you expand on your thinking on this? I was using 'twist' as a general term fitting anything that is not "QE3" but some "twist" on what QE3 would be. Fed already announced an extension thru December for the "phase 2" of the current Twist. Fed Expands Operation Twist by $267 Billion Through 2012 - Bloomberg Mike

I guess it's me who is confused.

my thinking is I would rather see another modification of operation twist than qe3.

Silvester17 

I guess it's me who is confused. my thinking is I would rather see another modification of operation twist than qe3.

In fact, I've thought for a while they would do a "Twist" instead of QE3. My thinking was that they need to keep renaming it, and slightly changing the rules of the game, in order to keep it fresh so the market is not continually frontrunning and adapting/expecting it (like what is happening now, in my opinion).

But what doesn't jive is all the rumors of QE3 coming in September. Since Twist is still running through the end of the year, I really don't feel like there will be a QE3 this year.

Market continues higher, and higher, in spite of all the bad economic news. So now lets say QE3 is not delivered as promised in September, to me that would mean a massive sell off. But lets say QE3 is in fact delivered as expected in September, that to me also signals a sell off. So I am just bearish overall, mainly because I think this entire upward thrust in the market is built entirely on QE. So whether it comes, or doesn't come, either way - we go lower.

The only way to go higher is to have some sort of unexpected QE.

My opinion anyway...

Mike

On The Mystery Rally Of Summer 2012 | ZeroHedge

Mike

QE what? We don't need no stink'in QE


Obama's Master Plan: Bailout Everyone | ZeroHedge

Obama's Master Plan: Bailout Everyone

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/09/2012 - 23:05 President Obama

A 40% loss of post-IPO market-cap, channel-stuffing largesse, contract-law destruction, and all with tax-payer backing. That is what the Bailout'er-in-chief has in mind for every manufacturing company in the US. As Politico reports this evening, President Obama gave a speech we think rivals his 'you didn’t build it' miasma as he alienated foreigners, encouraged socialized losses, and suggests bailouts for any and all. "I said, I believe in American workers, I believe in this American industry, and now the American auto industry has come roaring back," (cough - down 43% - cough) he said. "Now I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs, not just in the auto industry, but in every industry."

Source: Goldman Pulls The Plug On More QE In 2012 | ZeroHedge

Quoting 

One of the most vocal advocates of a NEW QE announcement next month, at either the FOMC meeting or Jackson Hole - Goldman Sachs - has just pulled the plug. From Jan Hatzius: "The US economic data continue to look a bit stronger. Tuesday’s retail sales report for July beat expectations, while inventory accumulation showed a further slowdown in June. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate edged up to 2.3%. The recent news also has implications for Fed policy. While QE3 at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting remains possible, our best estimate is that it will take until late 2012/early 2013 before Fed officials return to balance sheet expansion." Just as we have been saying. Which means the Fed is now out of the picture until the end of 2012. And with corn prices where they are, so is the PBOC. As for the ECB - talk to Rajoy, who will do nothing as long as 10 Year yields are under 8%. Which means that, as explained previously, Spain and Italy, and in fact the entire world, must all be destroyed first, before they are saved. Full Goldman note: The US economic recovery remains sluggish, but we believe that it will pick up a bit in coming months. Tuesday’s data were generally in line with this expectation: 1. Stronger retail sales. The July retail sales report showed a clear upside surprise, with a 0.9% gain in sales excluding autos, building materials, and gasoline. The month-to-month strength was broad-based, with sizable gains in most core categories, although it mainly served to reverse some of the declines in the prior month. 2. Slower inventory accumulation. Inventory accumulation has slowed clearly in recent months, with book-value business inventories up just 0.1% in June, down from a peak of 0.8% in January. We believe that this slowdown has been partly responsible for the disappointing performance in manufacturing surveys such as the ISM and Philly Fed. If it is ending, that should help the manufacturing sector over the next few months. Our proprietary measures of US economic growth have also picked up a bit further. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate rose to 2.3% from 2.2%, our current activity indicator (CAI) now stands at 1.2% in July after 1.1% in June, and our US-MAP index of US economic data surprises is moving quickly further toward neutral readings on a 60-day exponential moving average basis. The recent news on the pace of the recovery also has implications for Federal Reserve policy. To be clear, our own view remains that there is a very solid case for additional accommodation under the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and 2% inflation. And we do believe that Fed officials will ultimately decide to ease policy further. However, in contrast to a number of other forecasters, we do not expect a move to QE3 at the September 12-13 FOMC meeting. Although Fed officials clearly adopted a strong easing bias at the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting, we do not think that this amounts to a pre-commitment to QE3. Instead, we believe that continued weakness is necessary to prompt a substantial easing move. And so far, that weakness is not showing up in the data. Among the top-tier indicators released since the meeting, only the July ISM manufacturing index was a (modest) disappointment. In contrast, the July employment report was at worst a split verdict, the July nonmanufacturing ISM was a bit better than expected, jobless claims have surprised on the low side over the past few weeks, the June trade deficit showed an unexpected decline, and the July retail sales report surprised on the upside. Other factors have also, at the margin, swung against the expectation of aggressive near-term easing. The inflation outlook has become a bit cloudier in the wake of the recent recovery in commodity prices; while Tuesday’s upside surprise on producer prices was largely driven by volatile sectors such as vehicles and tobacco, underlying price pressures were also a touch firmer than we had expected. Moreover, our GS financial conditions index has now fully unwound the tightening seen in the second quarter, and we have found previously that the meeting-by-meeting probability of Fed easing is quite sensitive to financial conditions. To be sure, the uncertainty around the near-term trajectory of Fed policy remains substantial. Several FOMC meeting participants, specifically Presidents Evans, Rosengren, and Williams, are making the case for additional easing via potentially open-ended balance sheet expansion. And it might well be that Chairman Bernanke will use his speech at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium to explain why the Fed’s mandate calls for further accommodation in the near term. We will be receptive to these messages and will review our monetary policy forecasts as needed. But our call remains that the return to QE will not happen until late 2012/early 2013, and at the margin the recent data have made us a bit more confident.

Mike