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Background:
I am a newbie trader and I am trading in SIM with ES. I can only trade for 1 hour after the ES open prior to leaving for work.
What am I doing?
I will be reading the prior night and previous days price on the ES before the 9:30 Eastern “open”. I will mark four Price Areas (PA), which is where I expect the market to go based on previous price action. There will be a potential daily high (PH) and a potential daily low (PL) based on one price reading method. There will be two other PA based on another price reading method. The high / low of the day can occur after market close until 24:00 I will log the predictions at futures.io (formerly BMT) before the open in this thread. There may not be predictions if I don’t see a confluence of price but I will state as such. If there is no entry I am not available to look at the market that day.
I will then log the actual results when I get home after work.
Times will be Easter Standard Time.
Why not a trading journal?
Why am I doing this?
As you can see by what I am doing that this not a trading journal. I’m not ready for that yet. I notice as I trade in SIM for the need to instill some discipline and this is my first step, similar to defensive drills in basketball practice. I’m not trying to simulate a game yet just one part of my skill set. The trading journal will be added to this later or in another thread.
This is Price Area Journal. I need to improve my discipline prior to the market open to review price movements from the prior 24 - 48 hours. I have a tendency to look at only what price is doing right now. Creating this journal will make this process a routine and provide a goal for reading the price movements. I don’t care if I’m right or wrong but that I go through the exercise.
I will be treating this like a journal / diary and it may have random thoughts, my feelings that day including emotions, etc. That’s why we have journals, right? As Big Mike says, we need to hold ourselves accountable and be honest with ourselves, hence the journal. By posting this journal I am hoping I will hold myself (peer pressure of the forum) to working on this skill.
How do I read price action?
This process will be ever evolving. I’m looking at support / resistance which we all read differently. I am not using any indicators for this exercise.
How will I use this information?
This is just a tool to make me look at the prior price action. I will not be using this to make specific trades.
What should you do / not do?
Read this journal for entertainment and fun. Provide encouragement. Do not use it to make trades.
Please do not make your own predictions in this thread. Create a journal of your own.
Hindsight for the week 2/8 - 2/12/10:
I marked some areas of my charts this week prior to the open. This week, now looking back, had a similar range each day and extremely close opens. When the market moves out of a ranged area I expect I will need to adjust my reading method. Here were the results:
2/8/10: Price opened around 1062.25
Area: Prediction Result
PA1: 1066.25 Price moved to this area at 11:00 and stayed within a 4 point range until 13:00
PA2: 1058.00 Price moved down to 1056 and reversed at 9:50
PH: 1070.50 High of the day 1068.50 at 11:15
PL: 1052.50 Low of the day 1053 at 16:00
2/9/10: Price opened around 1066.50
Area: Prediction Result
PA1: 1069.25 Price hit 1068.75 and reversed at 9:40. Price hit 1069.75 and reversed at 10:20
PA2: 1062.25 Price hit around 1063.25 and reversed at 10:00. Price hit 1063.50 and pulled back and moved lower at 10:50
PH: 1072 Price hit 1077 at 12:20
PL: 1056 Price hit 1058 at 11:12
2/10/10: Price opened around 1065.75
Area: Prediction Result
PA1: 1070.25 Price hit 1069.50 and reversed at 9:36
PA2: 1063.25 Price hit 1063.75 and reversed at 9:33
PH: 1077 Price high 1072 at 13:30
PL: 1058 Price low at 1056 at 10:30
2/11/10: Price opened around 1064.25
Area: Prediction Result
PA1: 1066.25 Price hit 1066.75 and reversed at 10:12
PA2: 1058.25 Price hit 1057.75 and reversed at 9:48
PH: 1076 Price hit 1079 at 17:00
PL: 1058 Price hit 1058 and reversed at 9:48
2/12/10: Price opened around 1065.25
Area: Prediction Result
PA1: 1074.00 Price hit 1075 at 12:24 and reversed
PA2: 1065.25 Price blew right through 1065.25 and went to 1060 and reversed at 9:45
PH: 1083 Price went to 1079 and closed for the week
PL: 1061 Price went to 1060 and reversed at 9:45
The ES market closed for a while today due to Presidents day.
Area:Prediction-Results
PA1:1079.75-Price high today at 1078.25
PA2:1074.75-Price moved down to 1075 at 10:51 and 11:30 and 1075.25 at 19:00
PH:1083-High of 1078
PL:1068-Low of 1075
Thanks for those AR01 , your levels are based on sound information . Im using pretty much the same approach to get the levels , keep up the good work .
Area:Prediction: Result
PA1:1087.50: Price moved up to 1087 at 10:45 and pulled back. Then price moved up to 1089 at 11:45 and consolidated in this area until a breakout at 15:30
PA2:1078: Price moved down to 1079.50 and double bottomed at 10:12 (also to the exact tick as pre-market at 7:39
PH:1091: Price broke 1091 at 15:33 and moved to the high of 1094.75 (as of the time of this post)
PL:1072: See PA2