Hi All

I decided to move my pre-market prep over here.

I tend to push this out on a forum, the Topstep indices room and a Skype group I'm a member of.

I'd prefer this thread to be a place for anyone to post pre-market prep for any market.

Not much to say other than you'll pick it up as you go along..

DT

28th May, 2013

First a step back, to get this rolling.

Market has put in a fairly big move up without really consolidating.



As the market tends to spend more time in horizontal than vertical development, my expectation is that we should now settle into a range and the 1630-1690 range looks ideal in terms of size and in terms of a good place to 'hang out' based on what it's done since the 15th. Of course the range could extend downwards but I'll be biased short towards and past 1690 and I'll be biased long towards and past 1630.

In terms of last week:



A pretty big range with value spread quite wide but a noticable line in the sand just below 1660 (1659.50). That's an area to watch.

In terms of daily levels. Well yesterday doesn't really count in my opinion, so for want of anything else, I'll be watching Fridays value area and the range from both days.

Overall, based on the idea we are in a range, I'd rather be long than short for a potential trip back to 90 before moving back to the low of the range.

Note though - We hit the lows on Friday and then moved up. That move up was 'confirmed' on Monday - when the US markets were closes, so beware of the possibility of a swift drop based on Mondays action being misleading. We are long overnight and this in itself often triggers selling off the open.

This is day trading though, so I expect the ES to put in decent swings in both directions on most days and I trade both sides.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 1632.75 -> 1685.75
Value - 1647.00 -> 1685.50
R1 - 1679.50, S1 - 1628.00
Line in the sand 1659.50


Daily Numbers
Friday Range - 1634.50 -> 1651
Friday Value - 1639.25 -> 1647.25
Monday Range - 1644.00 -> 1655.50
Globex Range - 1651.25 -> ??

Still looking at 1634-1690 as the overall range.



Got into the low 70's yesterday before dropping back to a low of 52.75 - right trough that "line in the sand @ 59.50.


Based on yesterdays profile, I think that area is still significant but I'm now looking @ 61.50 based on yesterdays action.

Weekly levels (this week)
Range 1641.75 -> 1672.75
Value 1645.25 -> 1658.75
R1 - 1679.50, S1 - 1628.00

Daily Levels
Range 1651.25 (globex)/1652.75 (Pit) -> 1672.75
Overnight 1641.75 -> 1657.75

Also looking at 1634.25 (Thursday low as a line in the sand).

You can see from the volume profile on the MP above that the majority of the volume in globex was in the 43-> 48.75 range, so that's worth watching.

May 30th - Happy Birthday to me!

OK - So here's the daily & the 60 min. We didn't quite get down to the 1630 yesterday and we've turned up from 1638.



The 60 min on the right looks fairly appealing but the daily looks a bit of a mess. Levels aren't holding that well. We did get rejection of the Tuesday Low on Wednesday and then we later bounced up off the weekly VAL (this weeks) but we then moved through it to the downside.

Looking at the profile



We can see that yesterday was in the range of Thursday/Friday last week, at the bottom of our potential long term range of 1630-1690. Whilst we haven't broke thru last weeks low, we need to stop skirting around id if we are to push up. A test to the downside might be what we need to push up.

The wildcard is that it's the end of the month. The month opened at 1593.75. It's going to be interesting to see if they run this up into the end of the month. This could be triggered off the pending home sales @ 10:00am. Part of me says it's likely but part of me thinks they might not risk it as it's already a great month.

Most of globex was in yesterdays range with a little peek out the top. We look set to around yesterdays value area, so will be looking to test that off the open. If we do go down, I'll be looking at a break of last weeks lows to bring sellers in.

Still looking at 1661.75 as a potential pivot too.

Weekly Levels
Range 1638 -> 1672.75
Value 1642.25 -> 1655.75
R1 - 1679.50, S1 - 1628.00

Daily Levels
Range 1638 -> 1652.75 (Pit)/1657.75 (globex)
Value 1643.75 -> 1651.25
Overnight 1641 -> 1654.75

Happy birthday!

Happy birthday DT!

3rd June

OK - so last week was a bit ugly and choppy. We still have a case for a 1630->1690 range and as you can see on the daily that could be a 1620-1690 range:



And on the hourly



The key is that we could well be at the low extreme of the range. Might be. Could be. Possibly. Anyway - if we are, even though we are barely out of last weeks chop, we could well have some nice moves if longer term players come in here.



Weekly profile shows that we didn't really do much last week. Be looking to see what happens when we hit the Value low of the week.



Daily Profile just shows we came out the bottom of that chop.

Weekly Levels
Range 1626.25 -> 1672.75
Value 1644 -> 1656.50
R1 1659, S1 1612.50

Daily Levels
Range 1626.25 -> 1658.00
Value 1642 -> 1657
Globes - 1626.50 -> 1638.50
Other - 1634.25, 1640

News @ 10:00am but I'll be looking to get positioned before that if the open is lively.

June 5th

My case for a move back up to 1690 to continue a 60-70 point range for a while is looking weaker based on our inability to pick up from these lows or stay when it makes a bullish move. News this AM wasn't great. More news @ 10am to watch out for.



This weeks profile looks like this so far.



This weeks range overlaps last weeks but value is not overlapping. Volume is evenly spread but there is a case for saying this is price acceptance at lower prices.

Off the open, lots of people will be looking at the lows
Mondays pit low - 1620.75
Tuesdays pit low - 1621.50
Globexl low - 1621.75

So that's a bit of a line in the sand there!

Depth wise - we had less than 50% of normal depth on the DOM on Monday, accompanied with higher volume. That made for a tough day. Tuesday was also low on liquidity but also low on volume. Might be more of the same today and if it is, it could be another tough one.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1620.75 -> 1645.75
Value 1626.50 -> 1636.75
R1 1659, S1 1612.50
Also watch 1644 - last weeks VAL

Daily Numbers
Range 1621.50 -> 1645.75
Value 1626 -> 1639.50
Globex 1621.75 -> 1632.25
Settlement 1631.25

Volume slightly above average in the Globex - 58k above average at 8:55

June 6th

Always good to take a step back and consider the bigger picture...



We've been "one timeframing" up on a monthly basis for 7 months running. You can see that last month was a really big pop up. As yet, we haven't broken that monthly pattern and the low of May is not far away. Whilst I won't trade 1576, I'll be watching it to see what happens to see if we get a meaningful reaction.

Still - we do have a few levels to eat through on the way there. We have been getting bounces off the levels we made on the way up and there's no reason to think that will stop.




Weekly Profile is interesting - value is above us - so first order of the day - does value come down to price or price go back up to value?



Weekly Numbers
Range 1605.50 -> 1645.75
Value 1622.25 -> 1638.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1605.50 -> 1628.75 (pit)/1632.25
Value 1606 -> 1617.50
Globex 1606.75 -> 1616.75
Settlement - 1608

Also - 1620 (breakdown point yesterday)
1607.25, 1595, 1576

This week all buying has been met with a new drive down, so this could well continue. On the other hand we look set to open within yesterdays value and so we may balance here or go back to the weeks value range.