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Sell: Am moving my sell zone posted earlier from 92s to 95-97.
Buy: No idea, nothing near current price. The next big level lower from prev days is around 30-36 which i like (as highlighted in my day preview charts).
If it breaks new day lows then I will wait for further PA to weigh up a long.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
i am calling it a day - a good day, i have not traded since this post....should i have done? that is the question.
i called 4 more good setup trades which all had less drawdown than my 2 winners, but rr was questionable on 2 of them, 3 of them would have reached TP.....these are the sort of stats i think cld be beneficial to my trading method, i need to get a stat sheet sorted.
heres the 'missed' trade of the day imo (hmm i need to set price alerts), i wld have entered on the first touch & though rr doesnt look great with potential supply just above the fact that the first retracement of the first swing down to the day lows (58s) was big (back to 99s / c75% rt) & quick the downtrend looked over, & this a reversal (in part).
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 108
Thanks Received: 126
It's not so much the issue of what market, I love trading STIRS, whether Euribor, Bund, Bobl or Shatz, they're all correlated anyway ( which is why it makes it very easy to spread). For me the main problem has been to get the initial start up capital in place which would allow me to trade it "live" in the first place. So that's what I'm currently working on,to get that together and go from there. I know there are more markets out there then I could possibly trade, however I would still have the same problem. Most brokers require at least $5k to open an account, or roughly £3.5k for us in the UK. In the meantime I could focus on FX, which is easily accessible and doesn't require such start up capital. I have traded both outrights and spreads, but prefer spreads. Spreading the Bund-Bobl is very nice indeed, although I quite like the slower paced futures, but it gives it less of a potential return (speculative). At the end of the day everything still comes down to how you trade, and how you manage your trades. If you can make a small profit everyday you trade then you're well on your way to make a decent living out of it.
yep sure, as you allude to though you can open a micro account at a spreadbetting firm with a couple of hundred pounds and trade outrights. this is enough to build your account, and enough to test yourself in a live environment. i guess you have tried signing up to prop firm training/grad courses.
i have not looked at a spread chart for ages, but iirc not long ago the bund rallied 80 ticks & the bobl didnt move, and a day later the bund dumped 50 ticks and the bobl was on its highs (8 ticks higher than its low). in effect you are trading outrights in this scenario even if you have a bund/bobl/schatz fly on. also the ecb will be buying across the curve (prob at different times) - which cld distort any correlation even more.
Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone (wow i am finding this a hard slog)
Elder Alexander - Trading For A Living
Jack D. Schwager - The New Market Wizards
but i may just reread this cos its a great book.....
Barbara T. Dreyfuss - Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster
i mentioned in an earlier post that i was concerned my trade logic/reasonings may come across as gibberish, & that i would work on coming up with a more concise summary of exactly what i was thinking & why........but that is too easy for anyone reading. so i thought i wld do a q & a session tmrw with some examples of price movements, participants etc (which may come across in others opinions as BS); this will hopefully provide some background to my decision making. i knew from the start this thread will generate little interest but as per the OP this exercise will help me a lot, and anything else is a bonus.
btw, re the earlier books post: i started reading The New Market Wizards & i was only a cpl of pages in when i came across these nuggets (my comments in italics):
"If your trading capital is too important, you will be doomed to a number of fatal errors" check
....
~"You will miss out on some of the best trading opportunities because these are often the most risky." i would like to stress, that imo there are plenty of good opportunities that are not that risky.....yet still i am over cautious.
~"You will jump out of perfectly good positions prematurely on the first sign of adverse price movement only to then see the market go in the anticipated direction." check
~"You will be too quick to take the first bit of profit because of concern that the market will take it away from you." check
apologies for the retarded drawings, but it kinda presses the point that trading is not a science....PA often looks this bad!
questions for now:
~what is happening to price & participants?
~what 'type' of traders are in control?
~who are the weaker hands in this scenario?
~what are high & low probability trade setups in this scenario?
~what are the dangers of trading in this sort of pattern?
~how may time influence trading decisions within this sort of pattern?
~what other factors could be key in this pattern?
these posts are not definitive, they are products of my research. please please let me know if i am talking crap, i am more than happy to reevaluate.