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Premarket Analysis: Little late getting started, but market in UT and I want to be a buyer at the open.
8:00 Missed the buy trade!! Gun shy after having 4 days of losses. Finally got 1 on but waaaay late. Long 1 @ 53.42. Trade is very slow. Get a couple of ticks and move TS. DUH Trade finally takes off without me. I make 1 tick. No further trades in this half hour.
Mental and emotional state=good. 1 trade for 1 tick profit.
Still kind of an UT going into 8:30
8:30 Very slow. Was thinking of buying VWAP at 53.33. VWAP of this swing now taken out, so looking for shorts.
Short 2 @53.47. Breaking through MA resistance. First target is 53.32. I have a decision point at this swing and target is a tick or so above the VPOC. Market very slow...I move TS to BE. Really REALLY want to close this trade for 7-8 ticks profit!! but I hold on. Move stop down a bit more. This is a swing trade, not a scalp. I need this first target to fill. My R:R has been really screwed up, small wins and larger losses. Stop to 53.43 this thing needs to go...and finally it does. 1st target hit!! And then...I fat finger moving the stop for the second lot, and stop myself out at 53.25!! this is error, but I at least make money.
Mental and emotional state=good. 2 trades for $380 in profit.
9:00 Nice spike down, I think the market is done...Looking to buy at 53.14. This is major MA support. No fill. I cancel order. May be done for the day.
Tried to get cute with a limit order...finally get filled at 53.07. Basically OF short. I am late again!! Trade pauses, and something interesting happens. Large order to buy is at 38.05 with 381 contracts. This stays here as the market pauses, now it is up to 401. My thinking at this time is that the market will go and test this liquidity and I want to trail stop very tightly when this happens. This could be end of the road.
Price creeps up a bit, order moves up to 53.07, then moves up to 53.10...359 contracts. I stop out for -5 ticks.
On the video replay; however, I realize that that size did trade!! They just got ran over!! And I didn't get in immediately...I waited and got short at 53.02. I should have hit the market and been filled at like 53.08. This one could have run off without me. Made 29 ticks on the trade. And done. Glad to be GREEN
I did some things right and wrong this week. Started off with 2 losing days. In the past this has just led to a downward spiral and blowup. I am thankful I was able to "pull up"!! I did keep under my daily max loss this week, which I am also thankful for.
Thursday could have been a very strong day, but I had a fat finger mistake. I entered the day with quite a bit of fear and trepidation...this caused me to be late to first trade. Weird how fear actually increases your risk, not mitigate it!! If I had entered where I should have my risk would have been negligible and probably would have had some profit.
Goal 1 for this weekend is: Try and see if I can set T4 a little differently to eliminate these mistakes.
Goal 2 is: Investigate losing days for any kind of patterns.
Goal 3 is: Start keeping a log of my mental/emotional state at the end of each half hour. I am getting into the trap (again!!) of emotional overtrading, and I must eliminate that.
Hmm, a lot of my trades are "go with" trades, so the stop button is not working out. So I found what T4 calls the buy/sell bar. I add it to T4 with -1 setting. So now it gets me into the market immediately, but I am protected from inadvertent market order by leaving the STOP button on.
Another problem: entering trades via the buy/sell bar for some reason does not submit an OCO order! Not happy about that. Maybe I will try turning STOP button off, except for when I get into trade. Not the best solution.
Quick Summary: Down $768.88. I just got stubborn because I thought the uptrend was going to resume. Should not have ran over my personal loss limit of $500. I gotta learn when to say "when"!!
{For some reason T4 carried over my two trades from yesterday}
Too many trades again today. I will not bore everyone with the damage. Just pictures of the chart with entry. One thing is very true...I am not a good pullback trader!! I was thinking that I was staying with the trend, but on looking at this thing, you can see the high of the first 1 min candle of like 9K contracts was never taken out. Perhaps this was a better clue that the market had ran out of steam. Good news is I did not bust my combine. (Does anyone understand that <evil> voice that keeps saying add a couple more, and cancel your stop etc....!!!)
Premarket analysis: Market in obvious uptrend. The whole world is buying!!! Want to be long off the open.
8:00 Get one on and then the market runs away. I cant pull the trigger to add at the market. Wouldn't have made much difference...market immediately retraces and I stop out for a tick.
I think that this is a rejection of the high with momentum, so I get short. (not a bad idea, in hindsight but late). I am stopped for -5 ticks. No further trades this half hour. Mental/emotional state still good. 2 trades down about $150.
8:30 Thinking this is still uptrend looking for buy. Long at 54.77 stop needs to be waaaaay to far away. Lose 7 ticks.
Try again at 54.74. WRONG. lose 9 ticks. Finally get a couple small winners. Short trade just doesn't whoosh like it expect it too. I have no clue for 9:00.
9:30 Then the move just comes out of nowhere!! Short but I miss it. Don't want to chase. So I stand aside. High Volume on the 1 min. I buy 54.53. And toasted!
I buy again at 54.45. And toasted. These were catching a falling knife. I am upset with myself....I have for the most part quit taking these kind of trades. Just a real tough day. Felt like I didn't trade that badly, stuff just didn't work. The last two trades were off plan...but I was still stuck in my uptrend mentality.
This week has been very busy at work, only traded two days. Thursday took one trade that ended up BE, then I had to go to work.
Really not much to say. Good things are:
That after right at 2 months of trading, I have not blown up or broke the rules! Also, I am only down about $300. I am encouraged about that. Feel like I have made some progress in developing my plan too. I am really considering a '3 strikes and you're out addition' to my plan. Doesn't seem like I can usually recover from that point.
Not so good things are:
That I am down $300...was up almost $1500 at one point. I have to do a better job of holding on to these profits. I am overtrading, which is part of the reason I gave back so much profit. I have also been trading more emotionally, which is another source of my problems.
Just have to keep working on these issues. Trying to develop a long term, sustainable trading business. So I am in it for the long haul. I have also been considering funding an account (again!) If I can go another month with small profit/loss, and not break any rules, I may do that. I do think the combine is helping develop some discipline in me and highlighting the need for a real plan of action every day.
First some explanation is in order...I am only about $270 from hitting my Trailing Max Drawdown (TMD) which will result in a busted combine. Basically 2 losing trades in a row could finish me off. So, I if I go down, I will go down with all guns blazing!!! Unfortunately I am trading my P & L which is poor trading, also trading Waaaaay too large. I know that but don't see a lot of other options. So here goes.....
Premarket Analysis: Market somewhat in an uptrend but sloppy and a double top up here. Most of the Volume is up at the high. Volume overnight is 120K contracts...pretty weak. Very sideways on all the TFs. Looking to be a buyer at the open. Also, the market has been doing this thing where it runs for the high, just before the open. I will be looking for that.
Long at 54.52 a little early at 7:59. Market tries to take out high, but then pauses. I am nervous, and I move stop to -1 tick and get taken out!! DUMB!! Either leave the stop where it was or scratch the trade....aaarrrrgh.
8:00 Market finally breaks out. I am long at 54.59. Though the trade fails, I am ok with trade, it is per plan and executed properly.
I see this is a failed attempt higher and I get short at 54.52. I am thinking swing trade at this point. I am trailing stop but giving it some room. I usually look to take some profit at +20 ticks, but trade only makes it to +18. I end up with +8 ticks profit. Entry and management as per plan...<Shrug hate to give so much back>
8:30 Not much clarity. Finally get short at 54.41. Still thinking swing trade...just no movement in the market. A lot of orders on the DOM to buy. Just really thick. I make +3 ticks.
Still feel I have the direction right with short trades. Short again at 54.20. Huh I guess I should have held the 8:30 trade, would have been up 20 ticks...Market is very slow and hard to read. I lose my nerve and scratch this trade. I have been trading 5 lots and at this point I drop down to 2.
Short at 54.21 Should have been short higher. However, one thing I am finding is that when this trade works, you just have to jump aboard. There will always be a risk of a decent retracement, but with a limit order you just never get filled. I do try to add 1 higher, and end up scratching it. This may be one situation where it does make sense to add to a loser. If you were trading a larger combine/account, I think it might make sense to short the 2 lot with momentum, but be ready to add a 2 lot if the market retraces on you. I have found it helps to have more than one contract on...then you can take one off. That is, if we ever start getting decent moves again LOL.
Trade finally takes off without me. I make 1 tick. No further trades in this half hour.
Nice day! Happy for you! - Keep it going!
