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Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a possible H2 is forming. Market is trading below the small bear flag at the low of Tuesday, strong bear trend day.
60 min. chart (ETH): After Tuesday strong bear trend market has triggered a L2 PB. We may have a MM down to target at 2309,50.
S/R
Major Support:
2296,50 (January swing high + ON low)
2261,75 (Bull Trend Low + prior Month Low)
Major Resistance:
2332,50 (TR Low + bear flag low)
2356,00 (TR high + bear flag high)
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have a TR day and trade lower to test the MM target at 2309,50. We may start with a test up to the TR low at 2332,50.
Type Of Day Bias: TR Day Directional Bias: down
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Hindsight Thoughts
Of course I'm disapointed that I didn't manage to find a setup in todays strong trend. I tried to enter on the PB after the first BO spike (30 min after opening) but I wanted a retracement of at least 50% and that didnt' happen. A correct SL should be below the spike low and that woud have requierd 5 points risk today. Futhermore I thought the trend would stall at TR low but instead it moved on for 9 points up in the old TR.
S/R
Major Support:
2332,50 (TR Low + Weekly VWAP)
2296,50 (January swing high + ON low)
2261,75 (Bull Trend Low + prior Month Low)
Major Resistance:
2344,75 (ON high)
2356,00 (TR high + bear flag high)
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have a TR day.
1) We may test the high of the TR around 2356,00.
2) We may also make another bear BO attempt in YD range and maybe hit the MM target at 2309,50.
Trade 1 (BO PB, short): -2,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- strong bear BO (=AIS) after close of opening gap (target)
- Major Trend is down + high relative volume = possible bear trend day
- 50% retracement of BO spike
Comment: Bear spike after bull spike may increase chances for TR and it was a failed BO of the low of the day. Bad attempt to enter in possible bear trend day.
Trade 2 (BO, long): -2,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong bull spike and likely bull trend since high relative volume
- Strong BO above minor resistance level
- Possible measuring gap since largest bar in spike
Comment: This kind of setup is not part of my plan and there was a minor component of FOMO in this entry decisison, so this was a bad entry decision. Another misstake was that the SL was to small for this entry. I should have waited for the PB that came a few bars later.
Trade 3 (Reversal, short): -3,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Minor resistance and ADR range high
- Wedge
- TICK diveregence (tripple divergence)
- Strong bear reversal bar
Commnet: I have added the TICK index to my charts as a tool for confirmation , but since it's new to me I should only study it for now and not use it for decision making. This kind of setup is not part of my plan. On a trend day one should wait for a clear TL break before trading counter trend. Bad entry decision.
News Before opening:
International Trade in Goods, below consensus
After opening:
No important news.
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: up (+2,0%, +2,5%)
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and have triggered a H2 PB.
60 min. chart (ETH): We are at the high of the prior TR and have formed a H2 PB after YD bull spike. YD also hit the MM target of the Monday bull spike projection.
30 min. chart (ETH): We are at the high of the prior TR.
S/R
Major Support:
2350,00 (ON low + weekly PP)
2344,25
2332,50 (TR Low + Low of prior week)
Major Resistance:
2356,00 (TR high + bear flag high)
2360,50 (HoYD)
2365,50
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have a TR day (after two consecutive trend days) and retest the high of the TR around 2356,00 before we trade lower.
Comment: This was a slightly different TR Reversal setup than I usually look for but I think that the TICK divergence is rather reliable on TR days. I failed to recognize that the bear move I traded formed a wedge and missed to take profit. This was also a great long setup that I did miss.
Comment: Looked like a possible weak trend and the PB to TL looked like good value. I thought this day would start like yesterday, but yesterdays channel was much stronger than today. This is not a setup in my plan and i shouldn't have taken the trade.
Trade 2: (Short, MTR): -0,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- LH after HH MTR pattern
- 2nd entry LH
- bear reversal bar
Comment: Although this looked like a convincing reversal pattern it wasn't since this was a TR day and not a trend day. The market didn't reverse until the MM target of the first leg (=channel) was hit, as would be expected on a TR day.
