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News
Before opening: PPI-FD within consensus range but higher than expected.
No more important news today.
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral ( -0,31%)
Asia: up/neutral (-0.1% - +0,07%)
Oil: down (-1,67%)
Gold: neutral (-0,11%)
Bonds: up (-0,0% - +0.0%)
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after ATH and it's a H1 so far. We are back in the major trend channel after a TCL overshoot. YD was an inside day so we may have BO today.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR and possible LH MTR after last weeks bear channel or if we go lower we can have a LL MTR. Also possible DB Bull flag with Friday LoD.
S/R
Major Support:
2351,00 (Low of prior Week + Low of Month)
2346.75 (Prior TR low + LVN)
Minor Support:
2360.00
2355,75
Major Resistance:
2376,25 (Prior Session High + weekly PP)
2380.25 (Weekly R1+ LVN)
2401,00 (ATH)
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Minor Resistance:
2372.50
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have another TR day.
Typ Of Day Bias: TR Day Directional Bias: Down
/P
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Context Log
Sideways TR day. Two legs down in channel, minor reversal, 2 legs up, bear BO, sideways up.
Trade 1 (long, TR rev): -2 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down on a TR day
- minor support
- Target hit (100% fib.ext of friday bear spike on 30 min ETH chart)
- bottom formation + failed L2
Comment: Target hit but not filled, so BE trade. Once again, should not enter on a BO on a TR day.
Trade 3 (short, BP): -2 points
Reason for taking the trade:
- Strong bear BO, so AIS
- PB, L2 at resistance + VWAP
- I thought we would have second bear leg, A MM of the opening session leg
Hindsight Thoughts
Two things that I will remember from today are:
- I must not wait for to much confirmation on a TR day. Enter at the S/R level before the BO.
- If I enter on a BO, the SL has to be at least 2 ticks below the BO point, since this is usually tested.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after ATH and market is forming a possible H2. We are back in the major trend channel after a TCL overshoot.
60 min. chart (ETH): TR. Possible HL MTR after last weeks bear channel.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR and possible HL MTR after last weeks bear channel or if we go lower we can have a LL MTR.
S/R
Major Support:
2351,00 (Low of prior Week + Low of Month)
2346.75 (Prior TR low + LVN)
Minor Support:
2366.25
2364.75
2360.00
2354.75
Major Resistance:
2376,25 (Friday High + weekly PP)
2380.25 (Weekly R1+ LVN)
2401,00 (ATH)
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Minor Resistance:
2372.0
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have another TR day and trade sideways until the FOMC meeting.
Typ Of Day Bias: TR Day
Directional Bias: Sideways
Context Log
Small Opening gap, tight bull channel until FOMC news. Big bull BO and MM.
Trade 1 (long, BO PB): + 9 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- H2 PB after big bull spike
- Support
- bullish context (premarket, channel and spike were all bullish)
- Very favorable Reward-Risk-Ratio
Comment: I'm happy with this trade. I enterd on a limit order at the low of the bull flag to reduce risk and with the idea to reverse my position if my stop would be hit, in case this would be some kind of climax top.
Hindsight Thoughts
I considered to short the bull TCL overshoot (at 18:00 GMT +1) since this looked like a climax spike, a good wedge and ended with a micro DT. But with VWAP as target the Reward-Risk-Ratio would have been < 2. Besides there was no obvious resistance.
Context Log
TR day. Two legs down, sideways, DB bull flag (with YD bull move) before last hour.
Trade 1 (long, TR Rev.): -2.25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Two legs down, below VWAP-2SD on a TR day
- support
Comment: Unfortunately I made three basic misstakes:
1. Entered before the second leg hit the MM target (100% fib.ext.). The resaon for this was that I focused to much on my support level.
2. Didn't wait for a good bottom formation. I thought I bought a HL because I included a bar that hadn't closed yet in my price action reading. The open bar turned into a bear bar. Big misstake.
3. My biggest misstake was that I didn't try to get out after I realized that my setup was invalid. On the next bar there was a chance to get out at BE, but I kept hoping.
Hindsight Thoughts
I think that one of my problems is that my rules are too loose and that I'm using to much discretion. Therefore I will go back and make a manual backtest on the trades in this journal and see if I can come up with somewhat more detailed rules.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after ATH and market is forming a HL. We are retesting the major TCL .
60 min. chart (ETH): Bull BO of TR. Yesterday ended with a DB bull flag at monthly VWAP and overnight made a HL.
30 min. chart (ETH): Bull BO of TR. Possible new higher TR.
Overnight: Overnight traded inside YD session on relative low volume.
S/R
Major Support:
2375,50 (ON Low)
2351,00 (Low of prior Week + Low of Month)
2346.75 (Prior TR low + LVN)
Minor Support
2733,50
Major Resistance:
2388,75 (HoYD)
2401,00 (ATH)
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Minor Resistance
2784,50
Targets:
2370,50 (Wednesday bull spike low)
2367,75 (Open of Week)
Inital Bias
My inital bias is:
1) that we will continue up after the DB bull flag (60 min. ETH) that was confirmed by a LH during ON on the 60 min chart.
2) that we will trade down and test the targets below before we contimue up.
Context Log
TR day. Bear channel to EMA20 (60 min), LL minor trend reversal + wedge bottom, bull leg up to HoD, bear channel
Trade 1 (long, TR Rev): +6.75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down, 100% fib ext.
- Support at EMA20 (60 min)
- "Tripple bottom bull flag" (60 min ETH chart)
- Bottom formation in tight bear channel:
a) TCL overshot + LL MTR
b) wedge bottom + DB
Trade Plan:
SL: 2.0 points
Target (MM based on first bull leg): 6,75 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 3,4
Comment: I belive that I did most things right today. My price action reading was ok, I did wait for a strong bottom formation before entry since this was a bear channel and I entered on a stop order above the reversal bar since it was a bear body after a bear BO bar. So no FOMO misstakes today.
