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Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after last Wednesday big bull BO bar to ATH. The PB has reached the major TCL, so this may be support.
Context Log
Opening reversal just below LoYD, two legged move up to YD upper TR (Resistance). Tr and Triangle, BO down to target at 2365,50 (March 1st, big bull spike low).
Trade 1 (short, BoPb): -1.5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- BoPb and L2
- Target below
- Good Reward-Risk-Ratio
Trading Plan:
SL (spike high): 1.5 points
Target (2365.50, March 1st, big bull spike low): 5 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 3.33
Comment: Limit order entry above bull BO bar and possible L2 PB, since the bear spike did look stronger to me. On the other hand was this also close to a TR low, in case of a TR day, and there was no obvious support for a PB entry.
Trade 2 (long, BoPb): -0.5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- BoPb and H2 at VWAP
- Possible LL MTR triggered on higher TF charts
Comment: Bull spike looked strong, but it was the second leg and a climax up to an obvious resistance level. Since we were still trading within YD range, a reversal at resistance was more likely than a BO PB at VWAP. OK exit with small loss after failed micro DB.
Hindsight Thoughts
Two losing trades and no winner today, so what went wrong? The main issue today was to figure out if it was a TR day or if it was going to be trend day. The BO:s looked strong so there was a fair chance for a trend day, but it was likely less than a 50% chance. I don't blame my self for trading BO PB setups today, BUT my misstake was that the PB:s were to strong and turned out to be reversals, since this proved to be a TR day. One must not take a PB setup if the PB looks strong on a TR day.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after last Wednesday big bull BO bar to ATH. Possible bear channel, but so far only 4 small bars.
30 min. chart (ETH): A possible 3 day bear channel.
Overninight:Overnight made a new LL and retested 2365.50 (March 1st, big bull spike low) on relative high volume, so we may not need to retest during RTH session.
S/R
Support:
2364,50 (LoYD)
2351.50 (Low of upper TR)
2336.25 (DB bull flag, 60 min ETH + Low of lower TR)
Resistance:
2370,75 (Weekly VWAP )
2374,75 (HoYD)
2401,00 (ATH)
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Inital bias
My inital bias is that we will have another TR day.
Typ Of Day Bias: TR Day
Directional Bias: Sideways
Context Log
TR Day that ended with a two legged bear BO.
Trade 1 (long, TrRev): +1 point
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 leggs down (100% fib.ext) below VWAP - 2 SD
- Possible LoD
- Possible DB bull flag after move up from LoYD
Trade Plan:
SL: 2.0 points
Target (60 min EMA20, just below HoD): 5.0 points
Reward-Risk-Ratio: 2.5
Comment: I did enter to early before any sign that a bottom was forming. Should have waited for the HL after the weak reversal bar. This was once again a FOMO misstake. This setup requires confirmation before entry.
The exit was an unattended SL order at the low of the spike. The big BO bar that didn't get follow through late in the channel was a sign that this was a climax and likely the end of the channel. So my exit management wasn't very good either.
Context Log
Opening Reversals just above LoYD, two legs up to bear channel TL (30 min ETH chart), weak leg down just below VWAP, sideways around VWAP, 2 legged bear BO below prior week low at 2354.50, reversal back up to bear channel TL. Volume was very low, only 20% of normal volume.
Trade 1 (long, TrRev): -1,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 leggs down, (100% fib. ext.)
- Support (DB at LoD and LoYD)
- HL (=bottom formation)
Comment: I belive this was an ok long entry, but I realize that this was a counter trend trade in the major bear channel. My misstake may have been that I should have waited for price to "trigger" the LH by 1 tick above the bull bar, before entry. The bear BO that stopped me out was a surprising event considering the low volume today and the TR price action, I guess.
Hindsight Thoughts
At first glance this day may appear as a day of lost opportunities. But the only entry that I did miss was the BO PB, L2 above 2364.25, after the first bear leg. Why didn't I enter? Because I thought (hoped) that price would go 1.5 points higher and make a DT with HoD. I thought there were targets (60 min EMA20, Weekly VWAP and retest of the bear channel TL) that had to be tested before price would go lower. An entry at 2364,25 would have required a 3 point SL and the Reward-Risk-Ratio with a target at LoD was 1.9. That would have been an OK entry. Was there some resistance level about 2364,25 that I didn't see? When I look at my charts I see that 2364,25 is just below a HVN and that there are several prior swing lows during the 3 prior days that tested that level. But I'm not sure if this is sufficient evidence of resistance for a short entry.
News:
Before opening: Employment Situation within consensus range but higher than expected.
No more important news today.
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral ( +0,71%)
Asia: up/neutral (-0.12% - +1,48%)
Oil: down (-1,45%)
Gold: neutral ( -0,40%)
Bonds: up (+0,63% - +1.16%)
Sentiment is neutral or mixed.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after ATH. YD was a reversal bar and ON has broken the bear channel TL and made a new high. So this is a H1 PB.
60 min. chart (ETH): BO of Bear channel and test of monthly VWAP and resistance at 2375.50
30 min. chart (ETH): BO of Bear channel and bull channel up to resistance at 2375.50. Possible HH reversal after bull channel.
Overninight: Overnight made a new HH and on relative low volume. This was a spike and channel trend up to resistance and a possible HH MTR.
S/R
Major Support:
2351,00 (Low of Week + Low of Month)
2346.75 (Prior TR low + LVN)
Minor Support:
2370,25
2366.25
2360.00
2355,75
Major Resistance:
2376,25 (ON High + weekly PP)
2401,00 (ATH)
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Minor Resistance:
2380.25
Inital bias
My inital bias is that we will have another TR day and a continuation of the ON session bull channel.
Context Log
Bull OG, bear BO followed by a Bull BO and DT with first bar. Two big bear legs down just below ADR, channel up.
Trade 1 (short, BO): -3.5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong bear BO
- Possible OG close and no obvious support below
- Possible MTR after ON bull channel
Comment: Resonable entry, but big risk. Correct SL would have been above spike high (6,25 points), but then Reward-Risk-Ratio would have been somewhat low.
Trade 2 (long, BO): -2.75 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong Opening reversal/ bull BO
- H2
Comment: Inferior price action reading. This was a misstake, partly due to frustration after my prior losing trade. First I did enter after a bear BO bar on a limit order. Secondly I didn't notice the DT and the small baer reversal bar at HoD.
Trade 3 (Short, PB): -1.5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- L2 after bear leg
- Resistance at 60 min EMA20
Commnet: This was also a misstake. The first misstake was to take a short trade when the market had flipped to AI Long after the 4 bar bull spike. The second misstake was my expectation that the market would make a third leg down, since this happened yesterday.
Hindsight Thoughts
This was my worst day since I strated this journal. The only good thing is that I acknoweledge my missatkes and that I'm aware of them so I can improve.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We have started a PB after ATH and it's a H1 so far. We are back in the major trend cahnnel after a TCL overshoot.
S/R
Major Support:
2351,00 (Low of prior Week + Low of Month)
2346.75 (Prior TR low + LVN)
Minor Support:
2360.00
2355,75
Major Resistance:
2376,25 (Prior Session High + weekly PP)
2380.25 (R1+ LVN)
2401,00 (ATH)
2416,75 (Target on daily chart. Measured move of the Feb. 6 day bull spike)
Minor Resistance:
2372.50
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have another TR day.
Typ Of Day Bias: TR Day Directional Bias: Sideways
Context Log
TR day and inside day. Channel with two legs down to support at 2366.25. Sideways and up until end of day.
No Trades today
Hindisigth Thoughts
The only setup that I did consider today was the a long entry at the micro DB at LoD. In hindisght that was a good entry, so why didn't I take it?
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Two legs down to support
- Tight cahnnel , but small TL break (clue for the end of the channel)
- Reversal bar at LoD
So why didn't I take it?
Since there were three consecutive bear bars before the small bull reversal bar I thought that momentum was too strong and wanted a more reliable bottom formation. It came and was the next outside bar that also was a micro DB with the reversal bar. But I didn't realize this in time since I waited for a HL.
The second problem for me was that the reward-risk-ratio was to low. This trade required an inital 2 point SL. With VWAP as target the Reward-Risk-Ratio = 1. The actual risk (=heat or MAE) was only 1 point so in hindsight it would have been ok.
