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Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Yesterday did BO of the TTR to a new ATH. Today will decide if the BO gets follow through or fails. Targets below and above.
120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel and wedge top. TCL a few points above ATH and also MM target.
30 min. chart (ETH): PB to weekly VWAP and sideways TL break of the bull channel, so possible MTR above.
Overnight:Overnight has traded inside yesterdays range on relative normal volume.
Pre-Session (60 min): PB at weekly VWAP.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Reasons for taking the trade:
- HL at VWAP after Wedge PB to S/R
- failed baer BO
- signal bar (2 bar reversal + MDB)
- Higher TF context (30 min ETH chart) was a retest of bull trend high after a sideways TL break
Comment: OK entry. I had a long bias since I thought that an attempt to retest the new ATH was required before yesterdays bull channel would end. I did one misstake in my prep and that was that I didn't regard the S/R level based on the TR low of yesterdays RTH session. Then I would have considered the L2 PB setup short before going long.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Bear BO + FT
- PB to S/R
Comment: Not OK entry since mid of bear channel. The SL should either have been wider since the signal bar was 2,25 points or I should have tried to entered higher on a limit order instead of a stop order.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- LL MTR
- support + MM target
- Wedge bottom
- LL MTR on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: OK entry, but maybe somewhat to risky. Probability would have been higher if I had waited for the HL 3 bars later, but that would have costed 1,5 points.
Hindsight Thoughts
There was only one trade that I considered today and it was the 2nd entry long at the bottom of the triangle at 16.40 GMT+1. This would have been a great entry. I passed this entry since it was above my S/R-level, mid of the TR of yesterdays last hour and just below VWAP.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs up, MM target hit
- Resistance, weekly VWAP, 60 min EMA20, bear TL
- opening gap filled
- failed bull BO on 30 min ETH chart
- LH/DT ( = 2nd entry)
Comment: Ok plan. Exiting just before the big bear BO was of course a bit annoying, but I didn't see any signs that the market was going to breakout.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- LL MTR
- support + ADR low
- biggest bear bar since start of bear trend (= likely exahaustion gap)
- VWAP - 2SD
- 2nd entry long
- strong signal bar