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Reasons for taking the trade:
- DT (tripple top) at reistance
- PB to Weekly + Monthly VWAP on ETH chart (= resistance)
- bear reversal bar after failed bull BO
Comment: OK entry. Price had not yet hit the VWAP + 2 SD band, but the tripple top at resistance looked strong enough.
Hindsight Thoughts
I did miss the entry setup at LOD at 16.30 GMT +1 (11.30 CT). It was a MDB at support after two legs down and the outside signal bar was strong. But I didn't enter since this was a tight channel and the MM projection of the first leg wasn't hit. But that was maybe not required since the second leg was a failed bear BO bar?
Nice trade. I was also staring heavily at my screen around this time - 2429.50 was a super interesting price point today (RTH open, the sharp pullback, and then the region you have here). None of my usual tools were conclusive for a long or short so frustratingly sat on the sidelines while it bounced around here.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. PB and bull channel TL test. We are trading sideways inside June 29 big bear bar.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Consecutive LH:s after ATH. Bear flag (triangle) after June 29 big bear spike. ON has broken out to the downside of the triangle. But this was a 2nd leg down and a MM target was hit and it is also at the low of the sideways TR, so we may have a reversal up.
30 min. chart (ETH): Low of TR. DB + Bear wedge.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new low on relative high volume. The pre-opening bear move below the weekly VWAP may be reversed at opening.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down to support and MM target hit
- HL (= 2nd entry)
- Low of TR, Low of Week, VWAP- 2 SD RTH, weekly and monthly VWAP -2 SD on ETH 30 min chart
- bear TCL overshoot ( possible wedge) on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: OK entry plan but bad execution. I did enter too early on a limit order on the first pullback bar. Market looked oversold on the HTF charts and the wedge bottom (or at least a TCL overshoot ) made me think that this reversal may not require much of a second entry. But I was wrong. My misstake here was twofolded. First I bought too high since I entered on a limit order. I should av entered no higher than the low of the prior bar. Second I used a too tight SL. It was obvious that the correct price action SL should have been 1 tick below the big bull BO bar at 16.15 GMT+1 (9.15 CT).
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bear BO attempt of major Bull channel TL. Likely leg in TR and no FT today. We are still trading sideways inside June 29 big bear bar. Today is Friday so open of week may be a magnet.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Consecutive LH:s after ATH. Yesterday was BO from triangle after June 29 big bear spike. MM target below at 2394 based on June 29 big bear spike.
30 min. chart (ETH): L2 PB and LH after bear wedge bottom.
Overnight:Overnight has traded sideways within prior session range on relative low volume. The pre-opening bull spike may be reversed at opening.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs up to resistance on 30 min ETH chart and MM target (based on first leg) hit
- Open of week hit (= target)
- Weekly VWAP (= resistance)
- VWAP + 2 SD
- TICK divergence
- DT (=2nd entry)
Comment: Reasonable entry arguments. But the bull spike up was strong so the small DT was not a reliable 2nd entry. Besides I did enter on a limit order and the DT never triggered. In hindsight I realize that this was a trade on the 30 min ETH chart and thus a 2nd entry on the 30 min chart was required for a reliable entry.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs up to resistance on 30 min ETH chart and MM target (based on first leg) hit
- Open of week hit (= target)
- failed BO after big BO bar (= possible exhastion gap)
- VWAP + 2 SD
- LH (= 2nd entry)
Comment: Still no 2nd entry on the 30 min ETH chart.
Hindsight Thoughts
I missed the H2 PB at VWAP + support at 17.05 GMT +1 (10.05 CT) because I decided not to enter in the mid of the range on a TR day. But the range at this time was only 5,25 points so a BO was expected. And in my preparation post I did comment that a bull day was likely since yesterday was bear BO day. In hindsight I see that I had the pieces required to take this trade, but I didn't put them together.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Thursday big bear BO bar failed. Possible DB bull flag. We are in a sideways TTR and still trading inside June 29 big bear bar.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Consecutive LH:s after ATH. Possible trinagle. MM target below at 2394 based on June 29 big bear spike.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high and reversed back into Fridays range on relative low volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Small PB bull trend
- H2 PB at support
- signal bar (= 2 bar reversal)
- Enough room to ADR high
- MM target above based on bull spike on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: OK entry. This looked like a small PB bull trend at the time and the TTR could be expected around the current S/R level. Maybe the entry location was a bit too far above VWAP?
Hindsight Thoughts
There was a good loking BO PB setup at 16.20 GMT +1. It was a PB to VWAP and support after a big bull BO bar with a strong close. AI (always in) was likely long at this time despite the lack of follow through since the BO bar was strong enough. This was also a HL after a opening reversal and a DB. But since it was in the middle of the TR price action I passed this entry. Nevertheless more range expansion was expected and a long looked like a good bet to me at this time.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: TR inside June 29 big bear bar. Yesterday was weak follow through after bull 2 bar reversal. Possible triangle.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Consecutive LH:s after ATH. Possible triangle. MM target below at 2394 based on June 29 big bear spike. H2 PB at monthly VWAP.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR
Overnight:Overnight has traded inside yesterdays range on relative low volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for takning the trade:
- 2 legs up to resistance and VWAP + 2 SD
- Double Top at resistance (= 2nd entry)
- signal bar (bear reversal bar)
- Range expansion expected since only 5,5 points range so far
