News
Before opening:
No important news.

After opening:
No important news.


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Yesterday did BO of the TTR to a new ATH. Today will decide if the BO gets follow through or fails. Targets below and above.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel and wedge top. TCL a few points above ATH and also MM target.

30 min. chart (ETH): PB to weekly VWAP and sideways TL break of the bull channel, so possible MTR above.

Overnight: Overnight has traded inside yesterdays range on relative normal volume.

Pre-Session (60 min): PB at weekly VWAP.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

Trade 1, Setup: PB, Long, P/L: -1,25 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2444,00, SL: 2442,75 (1,25 points), Target: 2448 (4 points), RR-Ratio: 3,2
ENTRY: 2444,00 @ 16:44 GMT+1 (9:44 CT)
EXIT: 2442,75 @ 17:11 GMT+1 (10:11 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- HL at VWAP after Wedge PB to S/R
- failed baer BO
- signal bar (2 bar reversal + MDB)
- Higher TF context (30 min ETH chart) was a retest of bull trend high after a sideways TL break

Comment: OK entry. I had a long bias since I thought that an attempt to retest the new ATH was required before yesterdays bull channel would end. I did one misstake in my prep and that was that I didn't regard the S/R level based on the TR low of yesterdays RTH session. Then I would have considered the L2 PB setup short before going long.

News
Before opening:
No important news.

After opening:
16:00 GMT +1 / EST: 10:00 AM (Existing Home Sales)


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Yesterday was a BO failure and a strong 2-bar reversal at ATH. This is a sell signal. Targets below and above.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. Pb at monthly VWAP.

30 min. chart (ETH): Breakout up from bear channel so possible MTR after retest of the bear channel low

Overnight: Overnight has made new lowand then reversed up on relative high volume.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

Trade 1, Setup: Bo, Short, P/L: -2 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2435,25, SL: 2437,25 (2 points), Target: 2425,25 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 5
ENTRY: 2435,25 @ 15:45 GMT+1 (8:45 CT)
EXIT: 2437,25 @ 15:46 GMT+1 (8:46 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- Bear BO + FT
- PB to S/R

Comment: Not OK entry since mid of bear channel. The SL should either have been wider since the signal bar was 2,25 points or I should have tried to entered higher on a limit order instead of a stop order.


Trade 2, Setup: BoPB, Short, P/L: -2,25 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2437,25, SL: 2439,25 (2 points), Target: 2427,25 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 5
ENTRY: 2437,25 @ 16:30 GMT+1 (9:30 CT)
EXIT: 2439,50 @ 16:41 GMT+1 (9:41 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- Bear BO + FT
- PB to S/R
- TCL and 60 min EMA20 (=resistance)

Comment: OK entry


Trade 3, Setup: MTR, Long, P/L: 4 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2428,50, SL: 2426,5 (2 points), Target: 2438,5 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 5
ENTRY: 2428,50 @ 19:52 GMT+1 (12:52 CT)
EXIT: 2432,50 @ 21:02 GMT+1 (14:02 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- LL MTR
- support + MM target
- Wedge bottom
- LL MTR on 30 min ETH chart

Comment: OK entry, but maybe somewhat to risky. Probability would have been higher if I had waited for the HL 3 bars later, but that would have costed 1,5 points.

News
Before opening:
Jobless Claims (neutral)

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Bull channel and sideways TTR. Wedge top, so we may have a LH today. Targets below and above.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. DB at monthly VWAP.

30 min. chart (ETH): LL MTR + DB (=2nd entry long)

Overnight: Overnight has traded sideways within yesterdays range and tested the bottom of yesterday on relative normal volume.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

No trades today.

Hindsight Thoughts
There was only one trade that I considered today and it was the 2nd entry long at the bottom of the triangle at 16.40 GMT+1. This would have been a great entry. I passed this entry since it was above my S/R-level, mid of the TR of yesterdays last hour and just below VWAP.

News
Before opening:
Durable Goods Orders (neutral)

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral/up


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Bull channel. HL after bull BO of double inside day bar. Targets below and above.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. Bull BO.

30 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel, BO of 3 day TR

Overnight: Overnight has traded higher in a strong channel on relative normal volume.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

Trade 1, Setup: S/R-Rev, Long, P/L: 2,25 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2435,75, SL: 2433,75 (2 points), Target: 2443,5 (7,75 points), RR-Ratio: 3,9
ENTRY: 2435,75 @ 17:35 GMT+1 (10:35 CT)
EXIT: 2438,00 @ 20:10 GMT+1 (13:10 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down
- Support, 60min EMA20, ADR low, VWAP - 2SD
- HL (=2nd entry)

Comment: OK entry. Target for 7,75 points at resistance level was to optimistic. Should have been at VWAP instead.

News
Before opening:
No important news

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral/up


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Bull channel. TTR. Targets below and above.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. TR. Possible triangle.

30 min. chart (ETH): TR. 2428 is a MM target based on yesterdays bear spike as well as support level

Overnight: Overnight has traded within yesterdays range and on relative normal volume.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

Trade 1, Setup: S/R-Rev, Short, P/L: 8,25 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2436,25, SL: 2438,25 (2 points), Target: 2428 (8,25 points), RR-Ratio: 4,1
ENTRY: 2436,25 @ 17:40 GMT+1 (10:40 CT)
EXIT: 2428,00 @ 19:37 GMT+1 (12:37 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs up, MM target hit
- Resistance, weekly VWAP, 60 min EMA20, bear TL
- opening gap filled
- failed bull BO on 30 min ETH chart
- LH/DT ( = 2nd entry)

Comment: Ok plan. Exiting just before the big bear BO was of course a bit annoying, but I didn't see any signs that the market was going to breakout.


Trade 2, Setup: MTR, Long, P/L: -1,5 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2424,50, SL: 2421,5 (3 points), Target: 2434,5 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 3,3
ENTRY: 2424,50 @ 20:19 GMT+1 (13:19 CT)
EXIT: 2423,00 @ 21:06 GMT+1 (14:06 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- LL MTR
- support + ADR low
- biggest bear bar since start of bear trend (= likely exahaustion gap)
- VWAP - 2SD
- 2nd entry long
- strong signal bar

Comment: ok entry.