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ON: There was a big BO above ATH during the Asian session which had a little bit of FT before pulling back during the European session. We will gap up to a new ATH on the open. We may get another test up before pulling back.
Bars:
1 Strong bear trend bar closing on it's low for failed BO above the ATH. If it goes like recent days, price will fill lower gap and then rotate around ATH and then slowly grind up.
2 Bull doji FT. Not good FT for bears if looking for strong rejection of the BO. This is more TR PA similar to prior days.
3 Strong bull trend bar reversing bar 1. Poss opening reversal, but bars mostly overlap making a TTR, lowers prob.
6 Bear doji. Prob BB after strong 2-5. I just got filled on buy.
7 Small bear inside bar. Still prob BB, but bad SB for H1 buy above.
8 Micro DT with 6. Rev bar but bull body.
9 Another strong bull BO.
10 Small bear inside bar. Poss a little more up to fill 4 point targets on BTC bar 4 bulls.
11 Small doji iii. 2414.00 target above.
12 Another small doji iiii. If no more up soon, bulls may exit, and we could get a deeper PB or reversal.
13 Just hit through 4 point profit target for me. This is a third push up. We may get a PB here or soon. BO's are still forming gaps so no signs of bear strength yet.
15 Bear rev bar. Wedge with 6 and 9. May try PB to EMA.
Daily: The TR over the past month now looks like an expanding triangle. We are at new highs now and the move up was pretty strong so we may get a blow off move to MM targets above. May have a little consolidation first. If we go SW and then form a DT, that would set up a possible strong reversal back down. Let's see what happens.
60 min: We moved up strongly to new ATH's. The gap up last Thu was late in a strong bull move so possible exhaustion gap. If we are topping, we may close that gap, then test back up, then reverse down strongly to close gaps below.
1 Doji in the middle of last Thu's range. First PB to 60 min EMA in almost 2 weeks. May have buyers for retest up. But prob lots of TR PA in last week's horizontal area here.
2 Strong bull bar but tail and lots of TR PA in this area last week. Likely more here again.
3 Bull inside bar, may have buyers above to close gap above.
4 Bull bar went up just short of Fri's close and EMA. Prob BB and more up to EMA and gap close.
5 H1 buy above, but doji SB. May get at least to around 2415.50 for 4 point move from bar 2 close. Looking at it again, bar 2 was a decent BTC bar for failed BO/washout below last week's horizontal TR area and test of the 60 min EMA. But since the TR was pretty narrow, it was not as high a probability.
6 50% PB with strong bear bar. Retesting 60 min EMA and low of last week's range.
7 Bear FT. Not good for bulls. Target below is open. If we get another bear bar, we will have BUBD.
8 Another bear bar. Found some buyers at the open. BUBD=BC=TR PA.
9 4 CC bear bars. AIS now. May try to close gap from last week. Let's see the quality of the BO and FT here.
10 Bear BO was bought forming a bull rev bar and DB with 1. May rotate around last Thu's bar 33 low of 2410.25 for a while if TR PA continues.
11 L1 short below, but doji and after BUBD.
12 Small bear inside bar for L1 short below. Better SB but I still don't feel good about it after the BUBD.
13 Bull BO attempt instead of bear BO. Looks like we are in a TTR around that 2410.25 level.
14 Strong bull FT, but right at EMA.
15 Another good bull bar so now we have BUBD and BU again. Swings so far have just been abruptly reversing rather than having a second leg.
16 DT with 4 at EMA, but bear doji SB. May have more up after strong 13-15, but risk of abrupt reversal after BUBDBU.
Daily: A buy above Y's high is a 2nd entry BO PB buy, but we are in a 4 day TTR and yesterday was a doji TR bar which lowers the probability of the buy above. More likely sellers above and above the ATH. Today is the last day of the month. So far we have a strong bull entry bar on the buy above last month's high. Bulls want a strong close near it's high to show strength. Bears want to put a tail on top and a pullback to at least the high of March or April to show that the BO failed. Those highs may be magnets on a PB.
60 min: We are in a 4 day TTR. Yesterday tested the EMA on a failed BO below the range. We will likely get a test to the top of the range where the BO attempt will likely fail. This TTR may be forming a final flag. In that case, a BO would fail within a few bars and rev back down to at least the bottom of the flag.
ON: We traded in a very TTR most of the night, then broke out to the upside later in the morning. We are opening right at Y's high and look to be forming a 2nd leg up in the 4 day TTR. The top of the range is not far above. Volume is light again.
Bars:
1 Bear reversal bar for failed BO above Y's high, but middle of 4 day TTR. Bad location. More likely more TR PA even though good signal bar.
2 Weak downside FT forming rev bar but still bear body. May try to fill gap below a couple points down or rev up to ATH a couple points above. Not a lot of room here.
3 There were sellers above 2. 3 is a 2nd entry short for failed BO above Y's high. Y's close is the target. But we are in a TTR in the middle of a multi-day TTR so prob is lowered.
4 Since around 7:00 AM, we have now gone BUBD. We closed the gap below. Most likely TR PA and poor FT. Let's see if something changes.
5 Good FT for the bears. This is a change in behavior. We are still above Y's low though.
6 More strong bear FT. We are now working on closing gaps below.
7 Now bear bar has a big tail forming rev bar, but likely sellers above after strong push down.
8 Micro DB, rev bar but bear body. Still prob SA after strong down move.
9 Strong bull rev bar after microDB. I sold above 8, but fair rev signal with DB's and strong rev bar here. Let's see FT.
10 Bear doji entry bar is weak entry on buy above 9 but not strong rejection either. Not good SB for L1 short below.
11 Doji entry bar for L1 short below 10. Not good for the bears. We are forming a TTR here. 2nd entry buy above 11 but doji SB and TTR. May get PB to Y's low and EMA.
12 Fair entry bar for buy above 11. Not good for bears, but still in TTR for now.
13 Strong outside up bull bar. Good for bulls. Just below Y's low and EMA. May set up BO PB for retest down.
14 I thought price may PB to test BO point at least so I moved my target to a couple points above the 10 high and exited with a 2 point loss. Price may pull back down here, but I didn't want to risk another BDBU move so I took the loss. 14 is an ok bear rev bar at Y's low and just below the EMA for a BO PB short. But may have BB after strong 13. May need a 2nd entry if we do get a short here.
15 There were BB 14 and we got a bull outside bar but with a weak close (right at Y's low, not above).
16 Small bear doji inside bar for ioi, 2nd entry sell at EMA and Y's low, also wedge with 10 and 14. Weak signal bar though with tail at bottom.
17 More bull FT. Would have hit my 4 point stop on this bar if I held. 2 point loss did turn out to be better move. Lots of BDBU lately so looks like it happened again.
Daily: We are in a 2 week TTR after the BO to the new ATH. Likely more TR PA to continue until we get a BO.
60 Min: There were 3 pushes up from the 5/18 low followed by a steep PB last Friday that was bought. We got a lower high and are pushing down again. But we are in a TTR since the 3rd push up so we may bounce up and down for a while before a BO occurs.
Feeling a little out of touch with the market after couple weeks off. Took time rolling over my charts and marking things up again so late start to trading today.
ON: Traded down near low of 2 week TR. Good location for bulls. Gap down on open.
Bars: Coming in after bar 7
7 DT with bar 3. So far BUBD followed by BU again. This is TR PA. Bars are big so risk is higher. Watch out.
8 Short below 7 triggered but tail on entry bar.
9 Found buyers at open creating tail again. But 3 consecutive bear bars. Prob AIS.
