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I've been going through my trading journal and my biggest issue is miss judging what i call market direction.
A little back ground info first:
Mainly trading the Emini, GC when there is a flood to "safehavens"
Each morning I looking at the NASDAQ economic news release and a few of my other favorite news sites.
Plot the ONH & ONL as well as a any major swing points that i see that the market might hit , try to keep from 3-4 lines on the screen. I trade a 900 tick chart and have a 4500 tick chart open for longer term trend. I use Bands and MACD mainly trading short term swings off the bands or major break outs. Use a systematic approach( can go into detail if anyone would like)
Now back to my question, Ill use today as an example ( 9/19/17) big drop at 9:30 then we mainly consolidate for the rest of the morning ( i turned my charts off at about 10:45 so if there are any big moves excuse me)
Now with my system I had one trade at open and that was it, does any one have any have any method for judging these days, or does everyone change the way they trade depending on the day, and if you do how do know before its already to late? i understanding fading tops and bottoms and maybe i need to look into changing my system but i am trying to avoid jumping around from system to system.
I understand that not everyday is going to be a +/- 10 point day but on these days is everyone staying out, is there some "indicator/method" you are using or are you changing up your style.
I am working on incorporating order flow and volume profile into my trading but even on days like today it, i am unsure if that would have even helped much.
Rant over with.. if anyone has any suggestions or "secret sauce" you can send my way let me know!
Well I do try to estimate the direction before the start of the day and also the range and the high & low (along with many other points and things).
I have not yet mastered this - otherwise I would be rich and on to other goals in my life.
As to secret sauce I don't really feel that you really understand the nature of the question you are asking, that aside I will offer :
About all things, not just trading, unless you believe something is possible you don't have a chance of do it.
Just try something see what happens adjust and modify.
Douglas Taylor offered a sample of this.
He wrote down the HOD and LOD each day in two columns and to the left of the HOD he wrote the change in the High and to the right of LOD he wrote the change in the low.
He studied how days moved:
eg. started close to yesterday's high move up a little and then falls
He made names for types of days and then he looked for pattern in day types
(this was for grain futures)
So to add clarity to the above, I would suggest something like Taylor (keeping your o/n H and L ) then before the day make a sketch of the day ahead (as in the eg above). Then at the end of the day make a sketch of the actual day - comparing the estimate to the actual and see if there was something that would have guided you to it.
I will admit i am not always the best at explaining my self, let me give this another shot..
99% of the time i am either buying/shorting a breakout or a pull back. I've tend to notice that i miss maybe a trade or two in the first 10-15 minutes ( sometimes ) when i am trying to gauge the market and that's fine i would rather sit out out for a few minutes then give my money away. I pay close attention to s/r levels and what we are rejection and that tends to help alot, that also shows me what i am going to be mainly trading for the day if we come out and a eating stop losses left and right then i'm going to be trading a lot of break outs but if it more of a slow grinding day ill be a pull back to the bands trader until we have a shift. I was really trying to see if anyone had maybe an early warning/signal of what the market is going to do for the day that i could incorporate into what i am currently doing.
I add to my journal if we open and double bottom and reverse or so on but i do like what you mentioned about adding the exact highs and lows, might have to add another column to my journal.
Using tick charts on the NQ/ES I've been successful in identifying areas where I expect a reversal or bounce. I haven't been successful in determining the direction of the market before the market open, so instead I identify where I expect the market to turn/pause/reverse and then day trade those areas.
Ive added the PriceActionSwing Indicator and that helps me see some patterns that it would normally miss if i was just looking at the ticks bounce of the bands.
And who knows what im searching for might not exist , ive looked into using the vix and never become to fond of that but i pay attention it at times.
I've used the NQ before with good results, but that seems to be more of a warning of what is about happen on the ES rather then a sentiment of the overall market/direction.
Like i said ^^^ i might be searching for a genie in a bottle lol
Hi Zoraver
Could you kindly tell us how do you determine the direction of the market successfully before the open. Let's start with that and help each other out. Thanks