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Has anyone tested the new order flow tools from Ninja?
Well they say 95% of statistics are made up on the spot. The thing I'm pointing out is that trading is a relative advantage game. You cannot expect super normal results if you are not super normal among other traders. There are specific reasons you have to be get yourself in the very top. It goes back to the idea of futures as a zero or negative sum game and the implications of that. For example, I demonstrated by rational thought that equity index futures do not have to be a negative sum game because arbitrage traders can offload and make money from the equity side of the trade. I also argued that if something is very uncertain then it does not fit well with our normal perspective on competition.
But, as you move toward lower risk trading, i.e. day trading, scalping, etc. you move yourself into the "low risk" quadrant. As you move into the low risk quadrant the competition increases. So, it becomes more and more difficult. Right, if you are willing to take more risk then there is less competition but you will lose more just by random chance due to the lower certainty of the trades. At the lowest risk quadrant, highest certainty you find the highest competition among HFT traders. And, the competition isn't even always among retail traders: that is not driving the bar higher, it is other professionals, other automated traders, etc.
I agree with a larger account you do not need to be relatively as good to be profitable. However, what is lost when trading with the smaller account is that just by virtue of the multiplier, you are setting yourself up to where you must either make an super normal return or lose the account. So, it is not a choice on your part whether or not to join the top very best or blow out. If you were trading something with lower leverage or had a larger account, you are correct you could make a decision. I think it is better for traders to understand what they are up against versus fooling themselves.
As for how you can use this sort of information, if you can trade in a way that is not directly aligned or in competition with other traders you have a better chance. If you can identify something you are very good at and then develop it, you are have a better chance. All those things matter. For specific example, if you trade near the close but hold over the close. You might have a better chance then trading near the close and closing out before the close. As for trading directly from the order flow, I'd say to start look for the obvious. Depending on what you trade, it helps generally also if the volatility is higher for day trading to work.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
agree 100% with @DionysusToast OF is where the start of any move is spotted. Big or small. if that was not the case then average trade side becomes a BS theory. Ofcourse it is easier to spot smaller moves of few pts to ticks. but every large move also starts with OF. If one thinks the instituions are not looking at flow...that may be incorrect thinking. when they have a few Bill in the mrkt they are doing not only vwap stuff...but also looking at OF which is available with signatures etc. anyways the pt is if one is adept at OF....then one can see where the Buy or Sell Limits are being executed. It is the fundamental thing in OF. Yes if one just looks at charts one can still be highly successful. It's whatever one feels comfy with. however being able to spot the largest of trade volume with OF...... becomes handy to someone who is savy in that art.
well said @Silvester17 & if its coming from him....it will hold water
there is no right or wrong. only right is cut if wrong . i am in no camp...but i use OF to the hilt so there will be a bias
anyways...OF works....how one uses it and how they do will be totally different. if that was not the case....everyone would have rocked. anyways...was in the CL L...which got cut in the 71.44s or something....it ran after...but flow had already told it would....how you interpret and what analysis is done is different. am not cooking stuff up this was on my twtr feed which i just cut n pasted....not showing everything as i just cannot. but some rudimentary stuff
I use OF...and various other things...ofcourse vwap and SDs....but am always with the flow ....n if wrong cut faster than
lol...not to add fire....but just a healthy discussion. seriously. whatever works for one....one needs to follow.
but if u ask me....am a OF freak. so if you get me Vol Prof and other things...yupp i will see....but i need to see Flow in it.
okay if u ask me what i see in OF - just for sharing will let u know. I can see where instits r getting in / out....whats the affect of Aggresive Limits/Yup not just markets/where relevant sell / buy limits are (becomes S/R if u can read it). where and how Aggressive Limits are and work (yes thats also possible...& critical)......where the Tape increased - what are they doing with their Quotes/And pull of limits- yes again possible, slopes of book, etc etc. But again as i said i work with some very good traders & many dont use OF at all. It's all good...as we just compliment each other.
whatever works for one. if OF does not work ....then leave it. if one feels it could work, explore it. simple.
Order Flow is a fancy term....it however deals with whats traded / whats not being traded / where institutions come in / where institutions get out...yup now if one does not want to follow them....thats also fine. i have seen some good to great traders not needing this at all.
so its like this...someone wants cherry pie....and some love apple. just wrapping up a nq S.....with full credit to NQ. we also know where the puck will go.
these were just mho. for what its worth. hence pls ignore if it does not align
I don't really buy into the zero sum argument or having to be better than other traders. Might depend on which market you're trading of course.
Generally speaking, in order to successfully day trade, you need to buy low and sell higher. Vice versa for a short. This is best done at the start of an upmove or if it's a move of some significance, enter in the middle of the move on a pullback or similar.
If you're day trading the ES like I do, you can basically enter pretty much where you want and when you want during RTH provided you're not trading 100s of contracts.
So, you don't need to compete with other traders. You just need to know when and where to enter (and exit).
It goes without saying that if you can do this consistently, then yes, you are better than most traders. But you don't need to compete with them per se.
Definitely, it so pointless and I believe counter inituitive to have that mind set. But human bevaiour is very important. Understanding yourself most important
Volatility is good for the market and trading.
Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul. - Van Tharp
Of course, it's a bargain if it could provide useful/profitable, but I'm not convinced at this point, although the premise of VWAP makes a lot of sense considering it's institutional use.
Jigsaw DOM also plots VWAP, but what's lacking is the context you mention.