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David Halsey, EminiAddict
Free daily video, released at 6:30 am ET. https://eminiaddict.com/?cat=5
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The Secret Mindset Academy YouTube Channel
-->Especially: "Elite Renko Trading Strategy"
Exactly @jubjub. I fell into the same trap. Before my disastrous (almost account blowing) day, there were several times that I had been down on a trade then averaged down only to end up making a lot of profits in the end. But as @sstheo mentioned in an earlier post it only takes that one time that it doesn't come back into profit and keeps going against you that wipes you out. It was a very hard lesson for me to learn but I definitely know that I can't do that anymore. I hope others will learn from my (our) mistakes and not fall into the same trap. I was also trading way too many contracts so that was another lesson learned.
I previously mentioned super-fast scalping. Get ready to have your mind blown!
This is NOT how I trade, but is awesome to watch. Perhaps you want to learn to trade this fast?
(click "Watch on You Tube" when it comes up)
But the main reason I posted the video is because of the wisdom near the end:
Good traders ARE allowed to have opinions. I, for example, think the stock market is irrationally high.
But as he says in the video, my job is to "be the price"
My job is to "react to what is happening in the moment."
After 15 years of trading with some strong opinions, I have finally determined that the only truly irrational one in this new-paradigm of a market is ME.
I have to stop using words like "insane" and "crazy" and "irrational" to describe the prices. It does not help, and actually hurts.
Who moves the markets? The deep pockets. They are, arguably, the smartest ones.
The deep pockets are showing the "true value" of all the assets in the market.
Who am I to argue with them????????
My job is to shadow the deep pockets as closely as possible.
Yes, I can have an opinion, but my job is to quickly change my mind when the market tells me I am wrong.
-------------------
Remember this show?
Million Dollar Traders. (3 parts) (again, click "Watch on YouTube")
Out of 8 novice traders, who came out on top? A single mom, a great college student, and an ex-solder.
And the other 5 actually quit from the pressure. Those who failed included a shop keeper, an environment scientist, and an engineer.
Perhaps those who quit were too rigid in their thinking....
Whereas the three who won didn't quit (of course) and demonstrated an ability to adapt to an ever-changing market.
--> The single mom has to manage lots of inputs each day.
--> The college student has to navigate each class and figure out how to get the best outcome (the elusive "A" grade).
--> The soldier must adapt, adapt, adapt on the battlefield.
------------------
However we decide to trade, we need to be smart and stay flexible, letting go of our opinions and go with the price at all times.
It doesn't matter what the market does, it only matters what YOU do.
I'm sure like anything that took years and most people would blow their account in minutes. Lol.
But yes some very good lessons... I remember reading an article by Mike Reed and he recommended that you practice with a one or two tick target and a 2 point stop and practice NEVER letting your hard stop get hit. Always exit first.
At first this sounds kinds silly. How can you make money like that. We'll you can't, you sim and practice. And like Reed said do it so when your live you can take a small loss almost automatically.
Like that guy probably has.
Lastly I agree with the adaptability thing I think its huge.
Even in nature the number one survival mechanism IS adaptability.
Thanks so much. I thought the scalping video would get someone's attention. Wild!
Mike Reed was actually my first mentor. Love that guy. He has been through so much physically, but kept on teaching for so many years.
Taking ANY loss is hard, but the smaller they are the easier they are to take. I have to admit, once I started trading with the micros I let my normal 8-tick stop on the ES/MES get wider. So it is good to be reminded of Mike's method-- because as the number of contracts (even micros!) grows, I have to be prudent. Thanks.
Thanks to @Sandpaddict for reminding me about Mike Reed, who does not coach traders any longer, but was so helpful to me when I got started.
I actually saved an email exchange we had from 13 years ago, in March of 2008:
Of course it is embarrassing to publicly post my "Confessions of a Wayward Trader."
... especially since I haven't 100% cured my problems!
But I am finally willing to see my failings as stepping stones,
and feel that a "SuperTrader" is finally about to emerge from the phone booth...
"Helpless and Hopeless" a.k.a. yours truly:
Perhaps some of you reading can relate????
MIKE probably had over 200 active subscribers, but within just two hours, he sent me this helpful reply:
What a gentleman, a gentle nudge, and gems of wisdom.
Always stop any bleeding immediately or you may get taken out in a body bag, LOL
If you are not in sync with the market step back for up to 30 minutes, then things should be clear again.
Remember when you were trading well, and repeat the process.
Don't force any trades
Obey your stops
You need to feel positive to do well
Great stuff.
And I just found a gold mine for you to absorb some of Mike's wisdom yourself:
Even though Mike's service at TradeStalker.com is no longer up and running, Mike had previously posted some training videos and many of his daily summary videos on his YouTube channel.
My progress is pretty slow since I started the new journal. But it's okay; I am NOT trying to get 1% or 2% per day any longer.
Today the market was in a tight range, near all time highs again. And in fact, we were just a few ticks away from making a new record somewhere above 4186.75 ATH.
I was being extra cautious because I realized that we could potentially explode up and out of the big range at any moment.
"Capital Preservation" should be the #1 goal of all traders.
Here is my daily summary:
16 trades, 81% winners, $11 biggest win, $22 biggest loss, with $3.22 average trade using all winners and losers.
$11 win and $22 loss gives an inverted risk/reward ratio, but it works just fine for me because of the 80%+ win rate.
And to those who may hear me talk about my short bias, note that I took 12 longs and just 4 shorts today up near new highs. Old dogs CAN learn new tricks!
I have to remind myself that $50 on the micros is like $500 on the Emini's as long as I change nothing but the contract size. I will get there. $300 > $500 > $800+ per day.
I am looking forward to another trading day tomorrow.
Morning prep and then multiple updates in real time during the day
Levels posted ("open" is estimated, and will be adjusted at open)
ETH High = Extended Trading Hours = Globex session = Overnight High
YRTH High = Yesterday's Regular Trading Hours high VAH = RTH Value Area High from yesterday POC = Point of Control, price with highest volume yesterday VAL = RTH Value Area Low from yesterday
Close = yesterday's closing price
ETH Low = Overnight Low
YRTH Low = Yesterday's low
The overnight session created a small range doji = indecision.
Trend is still UP on the daily chart, using the 20 EMA
(Daily chart with volume delta turned on. Gray bars are neutral regarding internal buying/selling pressure.)
Price is balanced within the value area = no strong pressure either way. We are between the VAH and VAL.
News for the day:
Let's see how the market responds today, but it looks like a rotational day, with the VWAP (currently at 4183) being the central magnet of the day.
The FOMC meeting begins today, and could have a big impact.
Of course we just got a new All Time High last night at 4192.50. 4200 is such a big number and we are so close. It would be a shame for the bulls to miss out on that landmark.
The RTH session highs often take out the ETH highs, so I think 4200 is easily achievable today.
The fib levels show we have retraced to near the 61.80% from the overnight highs to lows, and the target is down at the -23.60% fib near 4173. Of course the market is bullish to the max and we may never get there.
----------
UPDATE: (45 min after open) 4170 just reached. The fib target at -23.6% (see chart above) was hit.
UPDATE: (1 hour 15 after open) The flattening 20 EMA here with the rising OBV (blue squiggly) says longs might work now. (see chart below)
10:50 ET. I took a long M2K trade. The overall trend is up. And the 20 EMA on my fast chart is up. I am posting this chart because I failed to notice the prior high. Notice that the immediate reaction at the Resistance was fast rejection. As I was about to exit, it recovered and went on to a 6-tick winner:
(3 tick renko bars, VWAP SD bands, 20 ema, plus OBV overlay)
12:45 ET The bullish call was correct, but now we have a stall on the ES. These 5 bars are all overlapping, and this says "WAIT." Will it break up or break down? Notice that the OBV is still pointing up strongly. But as I type this it appears the break is to the downside.
(10 tick Range Bar ES chart, 20 EMA, OBV in blue, support and resistance lines drawn using the Open of the candles, times are Mountain Time)
1:10 ET Indeed the ES dropped out of the range, but it appears to be setting up a pullback in a new trend. Here is a classic "Buy the Dip" situation. Notice that the 50% Half Way Back level appears to be holding. The targets are the high anchor at 4181, and then the -23.60% fib at 4184.50.
(15 min ES chart. 50 EMA in red.)
Based on the fibs here, as long as the 61.80% fib area holds, then the upside is in play. If it breaks below about 66%, then I will start looking for shorts.
3:30 ET. 30 min to Close. Profit Target 1 at 4181 was hit. PT2 at 4184 is still within reach.
(ES 10 tick Range Bar, 20 ema)
CLOSE. PT2 was hit about 45 min ago. 4185.25 was the high on that leg up. The fibs worked great today.
I had another small day, just under $100. This is 100% okay with me because we had another very tight range day, and we are mostly unchanged from yesterday.
At the beginning of the day (right here in this post) I said we would probably have a rotational day that was mostly balanced. I got it right (today). Tomorrow is the FOMC announcement, and I knew that the day before a big event like that, the big traders don't want to get crazy.
In review, today I showed
My attempt at morning prep
A Fibonacci short setup that reached the PT2
Correct identification of the bottom for the day and rationale for going up
