2.11.2022, AM, riding big waves

Overnight the market pushed down to the S1 pivot in a move that I wonder was meant as a trap, but for me the real story here is the subsequent move back onto that 4560-70 range that I am looking at this week support. it hasn't been broken for 7 days now, which makes it seem like this is where market makers are gathering up contracts. I don't know what the motivation is for the other participants, but I can tell we haven't pushed lower than this. This seems like the bottom to me.



Right now, we are starting to move off this level and I see that we most likely will test the daily pivot. This all has me feeling quite bullish at the moment, but I have to ask myself- Is this another trap? I really don't think so, but I'm now waiting on the next low to confirm my bias, and perhaps I'll trade there. My gut reaction right now is to get into the market, move my stop loss to the low of the day, and see how high we get, which my gut is telling me is now R1 at 4560, but my guts have been wrong before, so I am taking a trust but verify approach to listening to them when it comes to trading.



On the daily and weekly time frames, I can see that the over context of the market is that we are still in a range- that is huge. With all the indecision in all areas, politically, socially, economically, I feel like this market is really searching for its over phase, and in the process is offering up some really good trading days in the process, but to profit from these market conditions you have to trade smart, because these big moves will wipe you out if you're wrong.

Big wave riding isn't for me-

I blew up my account today. The reason that I consider this latest effort a bust is because I would have hit the max trailing drawdown for the funded account that I am looking at. I'm not mad, it had to happen so that I could grow. I tried to read the market, but read it wrong, and because I was hoping to catch big waves, I had big stops, that got triggered because I was wrong. That's frustrating. Around noon I blew up the account. So I went back to my journal, looked once again to see what I was doing that seemed to work, which was scalping, so I asked myself, if that's what I'm doing, how can I do it better. from 12 to 1 was kind of a rocky start, but around 1 I made additional changes, and the results were far different than anything that I have traded before.



-but maybe small wave riding is.

This is NinjaTrader renko blocks size 4, with the NinjaTrader swing indicator. I am using an ATM strategy that fires off 2 contracts, both with a stop-loss off 12 ticks. The first contract scalps out for 8 ticks, and if successful the second contract moves to break even and follows behind the price by 12 ticks. Its profit target is 40 ticks.



What this means is that on any given trade I could lose as much as 6 points. I'm ok with that. I can recover from that in the market and have found that my ego can handle it. What I can't handle is big loss. This is what I really like about this strategy, I get in, if it works, it usually quick, if it runs its fun, and if I lose, the damage is contained. I'm excited to see how this is going to work on a day-to-day basis, it may not, but I am hopeful, because I feel that this suits me, is logical, and actually, kind of fun! I think the special sauce in this set-up is the no-brainer stop-loss, and that renko isn't constrained by time. the chart moves when it moves and not on a metronome. For me this gives me a feeling of fast or slow the market is really moving, and who is more eager to move the price. The addition of the swing indicator really shows me how big those moves are, and how they are structured. I'm still looking at the 1 hour and the 5-minute charts, but mostly for context and over-all range, but I this renko chart is where I plan on doing my business for the time being.



Next week should be really interesting. Is this the start of a recession? The market did put in a new low, but today's range was huge, the market is still moving, and that means profits can still me made.

Done for the day

Tremendous opportunity in the market today for the brave at heart, but the market is throwing a ton of shade, I'm in profit, so I'm calling it a day. I want to keep trading, but the fear of giving back what I just fought so hard for has compelled me to stop for the day. The trade numbers are pretty good today, and different from my last attempt. I went netted 16 points today. I started down for the day on 2 bad trades that had my account down about $500.00, but I pushed through the loss and ended on a high note with 2 really good trades that brought my account balance back into the green for a net profit of $847.40.





I still have some questions regarding when I want to enter a trade that revolve around buying low, selling high, or waiting for the level break. I see an argument for both. I think this is something that I am just going to have to practice figure it out. Other than that. My strategy does seem to be working. I'm not marrying losers anymore, so that's good. I'm also not holding too long and have found a way to go for those extra points that I was leaving on the table when I was only scalping out for 2 points on 1 contract.



Trading like this is really, really fast and requires focus and quick decision making. Today the market chopped around as it made its way to S1 @ 4387 where its currently found some support. In the price acttion from my renko trigger chart it appears like sellers are really fighting back, winning battles, but losing the war. What this looks like to me is a lot of back and forth, some really good trade opportunities, as well as some battles that will chop you into pieces if you get in at the wrong time.



In the near term I'm feeling pretty bearish. I think that we'll settle out today lower than where we started possibly at 4387, but I wouldn't trade on it. Good luck out there.

Hey kids, 'wanna se something weird?

This is the chart that I'm currently watching. NinjaTrader let me put a renko and a 5-minute japanese candlestick chart together, this is the result. I think is hideous and beautiful at the same time.



It's obviously hideous because it's an abomination of disparate indicators and charting styles mashed together without regard for the purity of price action technical analysis, but at the same time, it seems to be telling me something new about how far, fast and in what direction this asset is moving.

Try plotting the 5 min as a box in panel 1 and use 300 sec for the time. You can set the 300 sec body colors to transparent to just get the 5 min outline and the 300 sec will help with the odd time closes on the Renko.

Pushing it

Finished early today. I took 2 trades close to the open for a net profit of $484.48, and while I am happy with the result, I feel like I can do better. The reason that I stopped today was I was scared to give it back. Don't get me wrong, 9.5 points is good, but as I watched the day go by, I saw so many other opportunities. I passed on those trades out of fear, and that I don't think is good. I think from here on out, I'm going to shoot for 10+ points. Anyway, here are the numbers for today.



Later on in the day I switched to another SIM account and practice traded. I was making good progress until I hit a loser and then revenge traded- like 6 times in a row. This exercise was good because I didn't care about the damage, I was free to experiment, to see how far I could push it. In doing so, I do think that I can push a little harder, but it also showed me the value of having a profit target, hence the 10+ points.



I messed around with this chart today, but returned to a more austere version by the end of the day. I think what I think is missing, is really just my own lack of focus. When I do pay enough attention, this chart is enough to get me into good trades. I'm pretty sure at this point I have everything that I need to turn a consistent profit, I just wish I had more time. Right now, I've made $1331.88 in 2 days. Thats 45% of the $3000.00 I need in order to justify proceeding with the funded account evaluation. I feel right now I'm in the early stages of 'learn on job' phase in my trading. For now, I am content with my progress.



Today was a range day that began with a giant freak show candle at midnight that set the tone for the rest of the trading day. That tone was 4440. The daily pivots gave us resistance around 4466. A 20-point range isn't a lot to play with, but it can be done. I think that we are going to stay in this range until it leaves overnight, which will set the tone for Tuesday.

Pushing it, an epilogue

Today I found just how far I can push it. The short answer is, not that much. Going a little deeper, I've now got a way to avoid catastrophic loss, but loss it still loss, and any loss hurts. If I am ever going to be consistently profitable, I am going to have to figure out a way to deal with taking loss after loss, until they pile up into catastrophic loss. I'm thinking I can probably accomplish this with a daily loss limit of $500. For this next set I will be "Trading to +/- 500".

I'm still looking for a better way to enter trades. Today was absolute shit for trading, I knew it would be, I knew there was news on the horizon, but I tried anyway, and I paid the price. Not sure if I learned anything from this, but I am looking for a way to make consistent gains in any market condition. Today I couldn't get it done, no matter how hard I tried. I think the final piece of this puzzle is for me to have a rock-solid understanding of why I am getting into a trade. I don't have this yet.

I've switched over to the NQ for a bit. The ES is great and all, but there may be other assets out there that better suit me. After adjusting for the difference in point values and accounting for the noise I've charted something akin to what I liked and was used to with the ES. What I am liking about the NQ is that its constantly moving, to me these signals greater potential. Sometimes the ES would just sit there and do nothing, which I think is frustrating, and may have caused me to take trades purely out of boredom.



This is set up a lot like the ES, chart. These bricks are 12 ticks big. I've added the 50 EMA to this chart. I might use this as bias confirmation. Other than that. I'm now looking more towards the 5-minute chart to give some context. Tonight, I plan on sitting down and really looking at where I should be entering trades, and why.

Dynamic Leveling

S-minute ES. Support at 4440, asset average at 4447.02 and dropping, derived from a 50 EMA



4 bar Renko is price. 50 EMA showing an average price dropping to 4440.



We have officially opened and are trading below 4440, a bear omen in my book.

Done for the day.

Here is the winning trade that I took that put me over my 500 for the day. Trading can be brutally quick- or slow.



I did take a couple of losers this morning, the max drawdown for the day was around -153. Yesterday really emphasized that not all market conditions are the same. In response to this I have developed a couple of different ATM strategies to address this. Today I switched between these strategies like a boss. When the market was ranging around support, I was only looking for a scalp with one contract as a way to stay in the market, engaged, but limiting my risk. As the price got ready to break out, I switched strategies go for that runner with a second contract. When it broke out, I was ready.



If I do anything else in the market today, it will be from a different practice SIM account, but I'll most likely be done for the day. I love trading, when I'm winning, which I am, for now.

Today showed a glimpse of that winning system that I have been dreaming of for about a year now. I think I'll use the rest of the day to just let it soak.

Noth there yet, but getting SO close

Look how awesome price reacts to S1 on the 5-minute chart.



Learning to simultaneously let these hands go and be patient. Not quite there, but close.



This is my favorite set up. I'm going to master it.