2.24.22- The plan for today

Who are these sellers down here?!? Anyway, this 6:00 AM bar seem to suggest that we might test the Top of this new broadening formation again. Higher timeframes are DEEPLY red, so my trade plan is to wait and see if we TTO at 4102.50. The top of this new range is 4160. Thats a pretty big range.



If this turns into a range day, I plan to sell the tops on reversals. The 7:00 AM bar just went 2, suggesting that this may be the case, but any move to the upside would be countertrend at this point. All signs point to the fact that we are in a downtrend. My target right now is 4000.

2.24.22 update

So the ES has hit magnitude beautifully. This looks like a power move higher, but right now I'm still betting that the ES is exploring this new range between 4101 and 4164. IF this the case, this current move will become exhausted and reverse above 4164. Thats what I'm betting on. I'll know I'm wrong if the ES takes out 4211, at which point I'll be looking for a new range to become a seller.



Update to the update

This is what exhaustion looks like. If the ES prints a reversal, then I'm in as a seller.

2.24.22 I'm in

ES went for a 2-2 reversal on the 1-hour chart, and I got in at 4191. If I understand what's going on here, then the ES should come back through this range to test the low at 4101, but right now I'm holding for the first target at 4135. It's a perfect set up, but that doesn't guarantee that it's going to work. I'm taking some heat right now, but because I've got a plan, and executed it well, I'm going to hold this one out to see if my plan was good or not.

$62.50

That's what I made today, and I am proud of it. Why might you ask? Because I survived. I was wrong on the day, wrong on my first trade. I was wrong on sever trades after the first one, but because I held in there, adjusted, and ultimately managed to get with the market, I was able to overcome what would have been in the past account crimpling losses, dejection, stress and sadness. So many lessons learned today.

Trade what I see, not what I think. I though one thing was going to happen, but another thing did. All the evidence for what was really happening was there on the charts, but because I was so wrapped up in what I thought was going to happen, I was literally blind to it. Sometimes I wonder if I've been so socially conditioned to not believe my lying eyes, it impacts trading.

Trade the 15-minute and 4-hour charts. The magnitude that I crave is on the 4-hour chart, but the tight stop loss that I need is on the 15-minute. Today when I muffered up my first trade, I dropped down to the 15-minute chart and saw price action that could have gotten me out of that trade with a LOT less loss. Additionally, there was clear and compelling evidence of a momentum shift on this chart. This was backed up by price action on the 4-hour chart.

Everything else I am doing is working. Well, at least fundamentally. There's still plenty of room for improvement in key areas like discipline and fortitude but think those will come online with a greater understanding of what the heck I'm trying to do here, which is trade like a boss. Here I have marked up what I should have been looking at for the day. There are 2 broadening formations here that matter. The first foretold of the impending momentum shift, the second confirmed it. Thats the formation in the white box. The red arrow is pointing to the 2-2 continuation where I should have gotten in, and road this thing up, eyes on the 4-hour chart. Next time ES, next time.



Could this be the turning point?

It feels like it could be. I think what I need to know about trading I found, and from here it just a matter of applying it. I feel really, really good where I am right now in regard to this whole trading business. I feel like if what I know to be true is, then I will profit from it. Numbers don't lie.



These numbers tell and ugly truth, these numbers tell me there is hope, that even though I make rookie mistakes, I can persist. From this point on I will be working to make those losers as small as possible while simultaneously working to make the most out of my winners.

Getting closer

$1012.50 for the day and I'm outta here. Still mostly wrong. Still holding losers too long, but by getting in small, and adding to my winners, I was able to profit for the day.



Key take-aways

Add to winners, cut losers, be more patient and trust in my analysis. Also, stick to making trades from the 15-minute chart, but cut those losers quick. The ES hit magnitude as expected but failed to push through and thus made its way to the other side of the range. This set up some really good trading opportunities for certainly more than I made today. If I just continue to improve upon what I am doing now in execution, patience and fortitude, I'm going to be more than fine.



I gotta go. I have some stuff to do.

Somethings got to give

Working days all week, so I haven't had any time to trade as I gave up on trying to trade off hours. Crazy week, right? I think the 4-hour and daily charts really make clear what's going on in ES right now. I see a clear set of higher lows, but the top is pretty static. The story that its telling me is one of nervous indecision. As a longer-term trader, how would your objectively choose a direction this week?

Where did these sellers come from?

Not that I mind, just curious, that's all. Just made $983.68 on 4 contracts for 5 points apiece. I had taken this trade with the intention of riding this thing down to 4300, but upon further review I thought better, so I took the money and ran. Despite the rather aggressive selling, the ES is right in the middle of a weekly range that I have demarcated between 4275 and 4384, give or take, which is telling me that in the bigger picture neither buyers nor sellers are in control. To me, this is really obvious on the daily chart (bottom left).



However, as the ES starts back up today, you see crazy strong selling right at the outset. To me, this is far from typical and could mean that, A> the ES is soon to leave this range, and b>, the ES will leave out the bottom, selling like hot cakes. This could be all bullshit on my part, and that's why I'm going to continue to mark out my expanding ranges, look for directionality from the higher time frames, get in small, get out of losing positions quick, and add to my winners.



That's exactly what happened tonight. I got in on the 2-2 reversal to the downside and added 3 more when I was sure that there was some movement in my direction. That might all the trading I do for Friday, but I'm not sure yet. I just got a new schedule at work today, and I start back on nights tomorrow. That gives me time to trade tomorrow, but having already made roughly 20 handles, I would be fine not trading too. For me, it will really come down to I can find a trade that just jumps of the chart. I'm SO close to my goal of breaking $3000.00 in a month. The numbers have been getting better by the day.



While not great, there are little moments in this summary that are telling me good things. The high wind rate is telling me that I am finding winning trades and that adding to them works. The largest losing trade is telling me that I can recover from a very bad trade. Over the last 2 weeks I've managed to consistently improve in virtually every metric. This is exactly where I want to be.

Is it a good time to trade?

The ES is pretty darn consolidated this morning to a tight range between 4310 and 4341. Looks pretty schizophrenic to me. If I trade at all today it will be on a retest of one of these levels, letting me see who really wants it more today.



Here we go. Good luck out there.

Lose hundreds, make thousands

NOT make hundreds, lose thousands. Once I've developed a winning position and added to, it MUST be closed at either break even or in profit, no matter what my longer-term bias or profit target is. If the price action doesn't support my trade idea, it's probably a week trade. No holding losers.

That's not what I did today. I grabbed another 4-points in the account that I'm working on and called it a day. I did however trade on another practice account, and this is what led me to the above-mentioned rationale. I was working on trying to hold for my targets and when to add, when not to. I'm still not where I want to be, but also completely fine where I am. My other conclusions for the day are continuing to bat from the 15-minute chart while keeping an eye on the 1-hour chart to confirm my entry and continue to enter with the 20-40 OCO bracket.



I'm now just $207.90 away from hitting my goal of $3000. I think there is still a couple of things that I want to figure out yet before I take my next step, but I think those things will come in matter of days when they do. Homework for this weekend is to read that Apex funded trader thread.

Lengthening my time horizon

Last week's chart told an interesting story. It told of buyers trying to push the price above 4388, and failing, and sellers trying to push the price below 4275, and failing. This in turn sets up a fairly sizable range of about 113 points, and that's a lot of room to play in.



To this end I've decided to focus on primarily the 1- and 4-hour time frames so as to not be distracted by the noise on lower time frames and so I can try to take advantage of larger, stronger moves. I will still be employing the same strategy that I have been working to perfect, but I will now be looking to better understand what the ES is doing on a weekly basis. To facilitate this, I have set my charts up in a way that I can 'watch the week play out'. This is accomplished on the 1-hour chart, which is naked except for marking out swing highs and lows, daily highs and lows, and volume.



The plan is to slide the chart over one day from the right and simply observe what the market is doing on this time frame and seeing how that fits in with what's happening on the 4-hour, daily and weekly time frames. For instance, when the market opens tonight, I will be very interested in the range between 4283 and 4341, because that's where the ES spent Friday consolidating at this time frame. What I will be looking for is which way price leaves this range, which should give me a good indication of direction.

The goal here is to make better trades. The trade I'm now looking for is what I like to think of as an intraday swing trade, where based on 1- and 4-hour levels, higher time frame continuity, and price action on the 1-hour chart, I enter my trade with a single contract. If I'm right, and the trade is going my way, then I start considering when to add to, and if price action on the 1-hour goes against me, getting out. The core of my strategy right now is, lose hundreds, make thousands. The first step in this is the getting out, just get out, it doesn't matter if you lose a few here and there, because every week there are plenty of opportunities to make some really lucrative trades if I am patient, follow my strategy, and am brave enough to participate, one good trade has the potential to not only wipe out those losses, but set me flush for the week and even possibly the month. This is now what I am looking for.

The market just opened with another gap down and seller are pushing the market towards the bottom of the range. Let's see how this week plays out.