No clear edge today. Will reassess if we gap up and open above Y-H.

Feeling tired due to combination of house construction project and my Yo-Yo P&L this week. May call it a day early for a long weekend.

News driven sharp down move and hence unexpected gap down opening.

I am short from 3956. (I saw 10+ pts of MFE and MAE but not bothered). Though my usual analysis stats are mixed, I am still leaning towards bearish move. This is mostly due to the momentum of the 4100 rejection last week which I expect to continue till F&O expiration.

I'm cherry picking the stats that support my trade thesis here.
1. Seasonally, Fridays in December are bearish.





2. Opening gap down below Y-Close after a bullish day is not a good sign. (Often Y-Low is tested and that's where I will be taking profits - if we reach there)



Have a good weekend.

My bearish bias for friday played out (after I almost lost faith).

After shorting 55, I did scale in @ 65 though and took a small loss of 7 points after price kept creeping higher and higher to take out previous day's high.

My Original Short from 3955 will stay over the weekend. Seasonal factors favor bearish continuation on Monday but overall the edge is slim. Since I'm sitting on a profit cushion of 20+ points, I feel comfortable with the risk.

Edit - After doing more statistical analysis, I am seeing gap UP on Monday as more likely. Going flat into weekend would have been a better option but I don't mind developing this new habit of holding my winners longer.

@Narcissus

How much does it cost to subscribe to Investiquant? I visited there web site but could not find the info?

trendisyourfriend 

@Narcissus How much does it cost to subscribe to Investiquant? I visited there web site but could not find the info?

It's quite expensive, starting @ 1000+ dollars/year. They have 3 packages going upto 3000. I got the basic one which is good enough for me.

Their lack of transparency in pricing was a bit concerning for me. Lack of monthly subscriptions was another redflag initially. However, they gave a me a free trial of 1 week, I think, and I felt that it was an expensive but valuable addition to my tools.

Please note that simple programming skill is enough to get what they offer for almost free. Infact, I learnt basic pinescript codes and used tradingview.com to get some of the data wanted. (I had ZERO coding skills and no technical background). I decided to stick with them mainly because of convenience.

It's easy to find stats that will confirm your bias rather than forming bias based on stats.

As I expected, gap up opening seems more likely today, monday AM.

There is a storm of data this week and extreme volatility is expected. Instead of trying to dance in and out of position, which will surely make me look like an idiot, I have decided to treat this a 'swing trade' into OPEX with a bearish bias. I can obviously stay out but what's the fun in that?

Options market indicates wide range moves between 3900 and 4100 with no clear edge. Since we already tested 4100 last week after FED comments, I am betting on probing the downside i.e 3900. Since it's a negative gamma situation, it could spiral out of control lower and hence the downward bias.

I have no idea regarding scaling in/out locations yet. I will let Market show it's hand first. I may simply be a spectator and enjoy the ride with just 1 position. Will see.

EDIT - FLAT NOW - COVERED MY SHORT FROM AT 3938. 17 PTS GAIN. I WANTED TO RIDE THE STORM BUT DECIDED TO TO DO WITH MARCH CONTRACT RATHER THAN DECEMBER ONE. WILL FADE THE MOVE TO 4000 TODAY.

I have moved on to March contract now.

Long 78 and covered it at 86 for + 8 points after 30 minutes. That's scalping for me and I didn't like it. Ideally I wanted to hold till 98 and then reverse to short but didn't have the patience to sit through the chop. Too slow and volume is low.

I am going to be flat till tomorrow news and then will likely fade 4000.

Done for the day.

Recap.

Yesterday I did 'ok' but could have done lot better.

First, I closed my short from Friday for a 15+ pts gain. However, I had the opportunity to take 25+ pts pre-open and I hesitated for no clear reason. (Even though I expected gap up open).

During RTH hours, I switched to long bias, despite my bearish bigger picture bias, and quite happy with that. However, I became content with 8 pts gain when I could have set 20 pts gain with limit order @ 4k and stop loss.

In addition to the 2 standard outcomes of 'profit and loss', I think I should create an extra outcome 'lost profit'. I bet that it will be much bigger than the 1st two combined for most of us.

Short 4030.

Expecting a down day after news whiplash potentially testing 4050 first and then down to 3900.

If new swing high above 4100 means, my theory is wrong.

I finally found the answer to my chronic frustrating question.

Where to take profit intraday? End of the day or ATR based targets?

Answer was found in Options gamma and VIX. In a positive gamma and low volatility regime, the typical price action pattern is 'highs tend be sold and lows tend be bought'. Hence ATR based targets, aided by tick exhaustion, are likely to work better for exits.

In a negative gamma situation and high volatility regime, it's better to stick till EOD as the feedback loop of buying/selling is self-reinforcing and bigger moves are norm.