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Cycle Analysis... a way of looking at price action.
The 15 Min Cycle Time Frame is the backbone of the 60 Min Cycle Rotation.
The 5 Min Cycle Time Frame is the backbone of the 15 Min Cycle Rotation.
Out of an Hourly Low price is going to break thru 15 Min resistance.
Out of a 15 Min Low price is going to break thru 5 Min Resistance.
An Hourly Low is also going to be a 15 Min Low.
A 15 Min Low is also going to be a 5 Min Low.
If you are in the Time and Place where it is reasonable to expect an Hourly Cycle Low to develop, the first behavioral change you will see is price making a 5 Min Double Bottom or Higher Low and a Higher 5 Min High.
If you also have confidence that Higher Time Frame Cycles are rotating Higher.... price lifting up out of a 24 Hr Low and possible MD Low... then this change in behavior represents a High Probability opportunity to get Long.
Ask questions, Get Answers.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
With Cycle Analysis and an understanding of Dominant / Minor Cycle relationships you have a conceptual template that helps you anticipate how price is likely to behave.
Let me reiterate this crucial point. There is not some external force that imposes cyclical behavior upon the markets. However, the principles of Cyclical Analysis or more accurately, Sine Wave Theory, provide a useful analogy that more often than not can be helpful in understanding the cyclical characteristic of price movement.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
Inside the 24 Hr Cycle rotation there is the Session Cycle rotation. So far that is all this impressive rejection from the Monthly Pivot represents. ( see above quote's post for the larger context ).
Is it possible this is a 24 Hr Cycle High? Yes. And if it is price will break through the area highlighted as 6 Hr Support but until that change of behavior happens, the 24 Hr Cycle remains in its upside swing.
The "If this is a 24 Hr Low" question has been resolved.
The "If this is a MD Cycle Low" question won't be resolved until we see the next 24 Hr low. The MD rotation higher will break above 24 Hr resistance and turn the 24 Hr smooth ma up ( white ma now trending lower ). To change the trend of the ma, price has to get above it and remain above it. As long as 24 Hr resistance holds back price, the turning of the MD Cycle out of its Low is conjecture. 24 Hr S/R is the backbone of the MD Cycle rotation. For the MD Cycle to rotate higher it has to break.
My day is done.
Good luck, Be careful.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
The last level of 24 Hr resistance for price to break thru is here at the 24 Hr Globex Pivot... and then it has to deal once again with the Monthly Pivot.
Notice below the 24 Hr Donchian Channel Middle the dotted white sma trending sideways... what you see in a Multi-Day Cycle turn. It's not a conclusive argument the MD Low is in place but it does add to the probability.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
5 Min bars, 12 bars = 60 Min, the average rotation of the Hourly Cycle.
White circles highlight the bar count between Hrly Cycle rotation Highs.
The white vertical arrows illustrate the momentum of the larger swings as price attempted to break overhead resistance. It is clear that as measured by the distance price was able to push away from Hrly Support that momentum lessened with each attempt. Notice the important role the Daily Pivot played in defining the "line in the sand".
Notice the Hrly Cycle Double Top and how in each of the candles involved in the two tests of the 24 Hr Globex Pivot, all of the 5 Min candle Body Highs were below that level. In my analysis I place more importance on candle bodies than on candle Highs / Lows.
Four bars after the Double Top was put in there was a sudden pop higher that took out the Double Top High and just as suddenly reversed lower. I call this behavior a "Stop Cleaner" and its purpose is to trigger the Stop Loss Orders above the Double Top and take out the weak shorts. When this occurs it is in my mind a validation that a large move in the opposite direction is in the works.
The backbone of the 24 Hr Cycle broke and the prior 24 hr Low mentioned in the above quote was taken out.
So what now?
This has been a normal 24 Hr Cycle rotation on the backside of the Multi-Day Cycle. This has also been an attempt to put in a Multi-Day Cycle Low and it failed. Attempts typically fail because they are made prematurely in the rotation of the Dominant Cycle... the sellers are still committed and the buyers have not mustered enough support to hold the line. A phrase that has worked for me over many years is " If it isn't the one you think it is... it will be the next one". The next what? The next 24 Hr Low that could also be a MDL. The deeper you get into the average duration count, the closer you get to the actual turn. The next 24 Hr Low will have a higher probability of also being a MDL.
Probability however is not certainty.
A look at the larger story.
Earlier posts discussed the status of the Multi-Year Cycle and the importance of the Monthly Pivot to this story has been mention several times.
In comparing this possible MY Low with prior lows it was pointed out that if the pattern holds, this second bar off the possible low, the current June bar, should break above its Pivot and push higher to test the Minor Cycle ma.
Consider the Left Translated / Right Translated concept. Search it if you are not exactly clear on what this is.
Should this bar maintain the pattern and push higher, it will Right Translate, closing significantly higher than it opened. To keep it simple divide the bar duration into thirds. A Right Translated bar will be pushing up and close higher in the final third of its life. The end of this week is the half-way point for the June candle. If it's going to go it needs do so soon.
Go back and look at the prior lows on your Daily charts to see how long those "second bars" lingered below the Monthly Pivots before pushing higher.
And just to keep it interesting, look at this chart posted on May 12th.
Why put the effort into understanding Cycle Theory? Twenty-six trading days after 3637 was mentioned as the target, price put in a swing low at 3639. That's why.
Ask questions, Get answers.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
That's what keeps me interested...aside from the rewards.
Notice the blue dashed line under these last 4 bars just at the level of yesterday's Close. Someone is standing there and absorbing the selling. That MD turns are typically built out of 4 of these 360 Min bars has been mentioned often. That this is the"next one" from the quote above. Notice the MD Stochastic having turned Up. And look at the white Minor Cycle Trend ma... it's bending...behavior mentioned several time as a prelude to a MD turn.
60 Min chart. If you squint you can see an ugly H&S Bottom. Reference has been made in the past to a phenomenon I call a half-span shift. Never went into detail about the concept as it's a lengthy discussion and acceptance requires a bit of imagination and faith. But here it is. The Stochastic on this chart shows the rotation of the 24 Hr Cycle. The interval between these two 24 Hr Cycle rotation Lows? 12 Hrs. The half-span of the 24 Hr Cycle. This behavior often, but not always, occurs inside the turn of the MD Cycle... or any Dominant Cycle for that matter.
Time for another run at the Monthly Pivot is my guess.
Now for the caviat.
1440 Min bars. Easy to see the middle of this Multi-Week S/R band bending under the influence of its Dominant Cycle, the Multi-Month Cycle wanting to turn higher. Ambiguity is resolved by going up in time. The Multi-Year Cycle is the largest story this thread has been discussing the past few weeks. If the MY is in a turn, it is going to affect the behavior of the MM. Where the MM is in its rotation is going to affect the MW... and this cause and effect spills down thru the time frames. Notice the MW Stochastic rolling over arguing the turn of the MW Cycle out of its High. The blue MD ma has also rolled over in confirmation. Notice the potential for a triangle. Inside a triangle volatility increases as the buyers and sellers more aggressively push against each other. Inside a triangle because of the increased activity, cycles will turn more frequently... Half-span shifts. Notice the green ma at the middle of the band is pointing at the apex of the possible triangle. This suggests the MW ma will become the center of rotation as the triangle builds out. You can even see how this ma crossed the middle of the last swing higher.
I think of triangles as the place where traders go to die. Like an elephant graveyard. It's brutal in there.
Symmetrical Triangles are traditionally considered to be continuation patterns. If you think of the effort required to turn a Multi-Year Cycle then you have a context for understanding the volatility on these higher time frames.
One last comment. Notice on the last bar the red hash just at the current price. That is the Globex 24 Hr Pivot at 3834. It is red because price is below it and testing its resistance. If this is a MDL that resistance will break. The rotation of Higher Time Frame Cycles will break Lower Time Frame areas of S/R. It is the breaking of Minor Cycle S/R that is the cyclic event. The H-H and L-L intervals are just a means of monitoring the rotations. More on this sometime later.
Good luck, Be careful.
"If you don't want random outcomes, don't make random decisions."
When price broke above the resistance mentioned in the earlier post strengthening my expectation of another test of the Monthly Pivot, I reached to cancel the target sell order placed just below that Pivot and faster than a mouse click, the order was filled and you can see what happened in the next blink of an eye. Notice where the move higher stopped. The Monthly Pivot.
Now what. Earlier was discussed the apparent rolling over of the MW Cycle and increased volatility as the opposing sides wrestle over the possible making of the Multi-Year Cycle Low. Remember the comments about the importance of the Monthly Pivot to this story. This morning was another example of that concept.
This dramatic drop was an economic news related event that as of this post, has had no follow thru.
Until the Low of 3639 is taken out I'm going to look at this volatility as part of the messiness of the MY Cycle turn. I will sell or buy depending on the opportunities that arise. If 3639 goes then let me refer you to the Quarterly chart posted yesterday at 02:54 PM.
