something off, bailing

[mood: exit]

area is decent spot to exit if holds, count is off and move was an outlier type

likely hedging through these events with negative expectations and whipsaw

like when a stationary observer sees the environment move and feels the illusion

[mood: frontrun fade]

the move from prior to event is nearly faded, kinda anticipatory but sold into

the widening of bands actually provides a harsher move and primes positions

also suspicions that the low cycle was not fully complete on the LT, too early

[mood: attempt to fix technical high]

looking back the push was a last ditch attempt to try and fill a technical high

however, the task was too hard to pull off, especially given headwinds

just hoping there is enough stability to peel off and start preparing for winter

EOD (blowoff confirmed)

technically pre-runup offers levels from which to provide resistance, tricky yes

bookmap might show this better, not really running this, tick^2 might provide

also vix is creeping higher, the high 22-23 range is a no go, no bueno lookout

[mood: negatory]

vix went up quickly not a good sign and is now within range of inflection, wide moves

as vix manages to notch past inflection, energy is climbing slowly, perhaps tomorrow

energy affects crypto more than precious metals, dollar/yen decline, bonds rising

[mood: seesaw]

currently in a seesaw state but tipping over, pending fomc so there is a lull until release

observing that vol is supposed to fall but is actually holding at levels, negative outlook

give time for the events to play out and take a pause after this preview, tail risk ahead

[mood: pending]

area is the more tame version of the re-test expectation level if view is "glass is half empty"

there is some residual left for a proper exit / gift given the vol but will not be there for long

treating the last hour as next-day for now, vix not quite ground down, prob another index push

[mood: settle]

few days to expiry, trying to tame the beast, expectations running ahead, seems levels respected

overall an example of general selling into strength, whatever cta levels were/were not triggered

levels in general are being respected and energy though nymex close is also waning, poor outlook

[mood: creaking, cracking]

almost like you can hear the creaking, peaceful cold quiet as the ship runs adrift near icebergs

serene, yes but also chilling to some effect, is the hull cracking from the cold or something else

yield inversion and macro data do confirm, and these take a while to repair rare exception if not

[mood: watching the positioning]

energy is pulling high to prior levels, vix is pushing lower to recharge, indexes hovering

the forward forward looker would see that the sentiment is curling in anticipation, med risk

someone who decided to hold into the event vs. exit will have to calculate risk outcome post

[mood: awaiting comments]

pretty tame and expected but the interesting thing is that index inflection points have been hit

see what the technical aspect is and go from there, almost a bit of a non-event with the outlook

alas, festivus was and has been early and now we see what is in there for the rest of us

EOD

the capitan hath spoketh and now we watch the unravelling, last chances for the pull

slippage is pretty crazy rn, but there's a general direction to it, not trying to be fast tho

vix is trying to churn it out gotta catch the wave after the whipsaw ongoing, small

ya don't stay in the froth fwiw, would say lowering vix is unravelling of hedges

still a bit of a window before the move, maybe expiry and other influences as well

overall not a good look, one sign is that vix is deflating but indexes still dropping

[mood: delayed adjustment]

so the indexes reset a bit of a retest and now vix is facing forward as well into close

france v morocco is like the off chance that morocco clinches and another riot happens

maybe let's not hope for the upset for the better good and peaceful holiday enviro

[mood: exits exist]

crypto is zombified rn, bonds too almost non-event ish, however indexes needed moar

the inflation adjustment in bonds may be done, though now pricing in other macros

cypto is also adjusting to risk and well, indexes caught on after processing more data

[mood: big oof]

overall action aside from post fomc is straightforward so the exiting is in effect toward expiry

late risers hoping the action pauses and holds so the trend is maintained, strange but needed

overnights normally re-tested, esp. after events so wait and see, scalping ok not the fav activity

[mood: poc]

the poc was run through the overnight and now resides under, testing a support after breaching

magnet was toward this level and now is a good area to consider an exit again and wait

seeing that vix is also breached and may indicate that the run maybe near a ST pause

[mood: continuation]

the process now is to let things equilibrate, as the overall trend needs to have a denouement

confirmation will happen slowly so there is no rush to really fully exit, but there might be weirdness

some of the indexes are also lagging, so there mayb still be more of a downside past initial target

[mood: area to watch]

down a bunch overall but area now to watch is whether there is more, toward sell completion

on the minor ST there is hesitation and vix poked through, MT would be an initiation signal

so MT there may be more if this is actually initiation and not completion on vix, expiry looming

[mood: boat tilted far]

boat teetering pretty far to one side, and see an attempted breach with other indexes following

bonds are playing into safety now vs yield expectations near max, crypto puking, dollar bid

energy is holding on, though metals are not with inflation less of a worry as macro mood

[mood: eoy type structure]

there was prev years where in end 2019-20 prior to covid there was a rally, could be possible

however those were at highs and this structure is not, so the dev is more similar to a 2008

either way, the outlook is more gloomy after pivot expectations dissipated, loss harvesting

EOD

calling this with the weather, though taking a break with the holidays is not so bad either

the scalp method did hold today with the channel following the lower bounds / pretty tilted

however as planned, the scalps must end near target and expect some type of relief bounce


[bright side thinking]

if the bounce is hard enough and behaves as a retrace the inflection could mark completion

however, this also requires that the next inflection be correct, perhaps how the ctas trigger

not necessarily a level per se but a set of conditions must be met, probability wise not likely

[winter bottoming]

the next most hopeful scenario is a soft / hard type development forming a decent low structure

if so, then the dismay phase would be in the mid-late stages but these times capitulate harder

bonds might be looking forward toward reversing the inversion and would be area to consider


this is vs. equities which would react a bit later vs. high yields

[mood: back to close]

behavior here is indicating that this is not over but chapter one, refusing to breach support

also fwiw yesterday's whole candle setup was a huge continuation triangle/wedge pointing

the gap down at open provided confirmation and brought on another selling wave


usually measure the largest range of that triangle to get the subsequent move from the middle

however using that, this extension exceeded target, so there is a consolidating wedge forming

unless there is an even bigger triangle outside of that, which means this is only halfway there


[mood: dunno]

tbh not sure where the end is, just going carefully with the flow on the scalps when safe

entry last hour yday waiting for fomc, or the spike day before am with cpi so no covering risk

some indexes breached, some did not, a mixed bag a bit out of sync for now, expiry tomm

[mood: possible]

that support is now resistance if breached, will take some time to repair for sure, more sells

currently only in quick mode as the level is tested repeatedly till something breaks

also reading the halt rules just in case, should be 7% for level 1, under 5% is do nothing fr

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html#equityIndex


[mood: reminisce]

in the past, the thinking would have been buy because there will be a turn sometime

well, no longer, after identifying the development over and over this is not a good strat

still might donk out due to selling at lows, so practicing the proper recognition of turn

[mood: near miss]

actually not a breach just within inches, esp with other indexes, vix is now turning

energy is curling and finally hitting the higher bounds with about an hour to close

means the MT and overnight are opps to reset and make entries available for more

[mood: revamping at close]

so looked more MT at vix and seems like this was actually the initiation with follow through

that is, there is likely another wave as the support was successfully and ironically defended

so as soon as the levels recharge the indexes will face another re-test and harder challenge


and not sure the outcome of the minor wave but if small, the panic might set in a bit more

due to the weirdness of expiry, the area may as well be near the poc or previous open

strange to delete a whole movement but would re-test and re-confirm the ongoing action

[mood: wriggling]

wriggling to the upside, expiry, energy lower metals bit higher, bit of the old wrigley chew

tad dangereux on both sides though trend continues but entry is misaligned and subframe weak

need to add supports in the rear subframe to get less slop during weight shifts, safer too

[mood: vix at highs]

vix still creeping, saying wriggling because looks strong though dipping for now, just technical

practically neither selling not buying around here unless short term due to entry probability

or simply a harder chop day, though a swing hold is still valid, if willing to let it move against

[mood: gap above]

though controlled selling, there are areas above that may need to be revisited as well

guess they are expecting some kinda spike to sell further into, just not sure who/when

nice gentle movement for scalps, pretty much waiting for repositioning and wandering

[mood: spiky pineapple]

it's spiky today, spiky spiky, vix levlling off, indexes prob, just going into the witching

feeling is more sluggish and reluctant like gudetama, new netflix is interesting kinda

euro close might bring more reflection and then the start of new refreshed instruments

EOD

looking into how things went, still LLs but at lows already, both sides were ok

some waiting for a decent setup to re-enter, but the selling bias is there

[mood: still here]

the trend is intact, vix in a better mood but indexes still dropping, a technical rebound in the making perhaps

technical in the sense that many LLs are being made so eventually that H will also be a LH not a HH

energy is supportive at least but crypto is lost at sea, calls as a hedge maybe but to hedge alt positions that are being swung


vix curled again smiling higher, this is not the greatest picture, still dragging indexes

one thing on scalps is that this feels like going to be beach and trying to chase the waves

while not getting wet when the tide starts climbing higher, some sea foam but no saltwater pls


the trick is when you start seeing stalling or multiple incoming faster in series

that is a place where the waves can burst further in, so you gotta make room

running into that will force you to reverse and turn around quick only to pull back just as quick



also vix is primed for a violent move higher seems, unless things can be tamed / capitulation


and then ID low tide, from the stagnation and lack of any more real pullbacks, confirm with forward tides, etc.

[mood: mixed]

line in the sand is still not so close, so mixed sentiment but trend intact, sand dollar keep breaking

EOD, prob need to relax the bid getting hit so much or something, levels are breaking though



this juncture, pretty balanced.. can see either view, however would like to see a re-test higher

seems that the end of the year finished unraveling expiries and things can just float along

until some real decision is made later to one inflection or another, that view means neutral

so with that, EOY