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2023 Rabbit


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2023 Rabbit

 
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

mostly energy driven, with tailwind from vix and gdp tbd so any cap is legit

retest maybe large cap tech or maybe just runaway like the usual

//

when small caps lead? nvda did dampen tech. though buyers through the haze

energy too except maybe natural gas, seasonal. see what gdp does

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handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

strong gdp mostly from export surprise? does the easy lifting for the dollar

rates jump and supposedly positive organic numbers also fight inflation

data driven, unch to basis increase would signal faith in economy

ranged, pivotal, though small caps catching up, energy in alignment

//

dollar basket also eases, stimulating globally, but may affect import-export

doing overseas business in light of currency strength, raw goods, assembly

final product has higher margin, so net gdp of input (cheap) - export (pricey) is +

but also, global operations can also source final product internationally

and decrease the overall cost / unit depending on the country

//

small caps do not operate so much internationally to currency tailwind mostly domestic

or with neighboring economies.. unless small caps can also internationalize operations

do more with less type of efficiencies ongoing perhaps, in light of inflationary pressure

without sourcing labor (inflationary) and buttresses the overall infrastructure

//

nq and nikkei lagging, small cap and dow and spy ok, energy except natural gas

copper lagging, bond yields up, crypto still up as well, maybe from high interest accounts

soy dropped, oats the opposite, regn stopped bleeding after failed fda approval

coca cola, ko dipped not sure if related to the ongoing artificial sweetener - cancer links

//

dollar watch, dipping, crypto too, precious metals, dollar basket higher in sympathy

indexes and energy as well, with vix dripping, bonds with possible revert as well

 
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108


dip like, vix and v-bounce, though dollar strength continues, energy follows

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handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

now bonds are bid, in the background as energy levitates

not easing per se, but flight to safety might encourage lower yields as well

//

large and small caps, not necessarily tech

cpi expectations mostly off loaded onto petroleum products for now

//

dollar drop, commodities and related forex at wide bands metals, energy

vix also low and all caps moved higher, yields dropping as bonds bid

crypto correlate to dxy seems neg, like the antithesis to monetary policy

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handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

tech and bonds both extended but energy keeps routing

crypto gained traction, perhaps as a early predictor

with dollar goes crude, metals, commodities, seems overrun

license to inflate, since inflation target met?!

 
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

probably cash since earnings, even bonds and crypto. dollar is affecting forex, energy

 
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

dollar is turning possibly, indexes floating into earnings with energy

 
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

vix rolled but not enough for a turnaround, dollar resting as well

crude ok not gasoline nor heating oil, commodities index waiting

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handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108

whether energy is tracking dollar as indexes purge unknown, vix also confirms

commodities may have to catch downdraft with more strength

//

canadian dollar is a contributor to dollar basket ~ 10% component

however, as a currency, still sees strength alongside dollar -> energy rising

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handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 356 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108


USD/CAD strengthened as energy pulls back

dark index is dropping and setup is not ideal for earnings

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Last Updated on December 28, 2023


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