I guess 2X more than expected Non-Farm Employment Change ( 336 K vs 171 K, that is 165K too many people having jobs ) would do the trick
and provide another JOLT down. By now we know that jobs are bad for current economy and unemployment is good. No arguments there.
But back to our lambs. Shall we breach 14.600 barrier this time ? What big boys are gonna do this time ? Join the bears or trap them as usual ?

If these are not text-book stacked imbalances then I dont know what they are.

20231006 pre market

• After nfp we gap down but not by very much.
• We are still inside of that multi day balance. So nothing has changed
• Overnight inventory should be short and we have to look where in relation to the on range we open
• Contextual i will see what develops today in relation to that larger balance area

back into the basket



Back into the basket with potential for trending day up

Your approach to markets is very interesting, what resources did you use to create this type of framework ?

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KOTN 

Your approach to markets is very interesting, what resources did you use to create this type of framework ? Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

The best advise i can give is to forget all fancy indicators and learn everything you can about Auction Market Theory.

• This video gives a good first impression:
• Read about details of the auction process (Balance, Imbalance, poor high, strong high, weak high, excess, ... for example here https://www.shadowtrader.net/glossary1/
• Check content from Merritt Black, Jim Dalton, etc

Destination (gap close) achieved.

This is cherry picked and does not happen regularly

Rcap 

The best advise i can give is to forget all fancy indicators and learn everything you can about Auction Market Theory. This video gives a good first impression: Read about details of the auction process (Balance, Imbalance, poor high, strong high, weak high, excess, ... for example here https://www.shadowtrader.net/glossary1/ Check content from Merritt Black, Jim Dalton, etc

Do you use ninjatrader ? If so how did you set up your chart for auction theory ?

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20231006 post market


trades 10 6

• I thought that today in the rth after the nfp we could eventually get a decision of the market which way it wants to go. Of course no idea what the direction will be
• The eth traded lower but not by much. It stayed inside the multiday balance
• I used y rth l and the overnight low (onl) as milestones to judge the rth development and to make trade decisions
• We never took out the onl
• we had problems taking out y rth l
• B-period never took out A-period
• That is all market generated information (MGI). That is much better to use than any media or other bs
• i took one long early and lost on it
• i gave the second long a bit room and it worked. Took both contracts out at weekly volume poc
• If the long had failed and we would have seen some acceptance below the milestones i would have changed direction
• Had a nice runner on my swing account

Summary:

1. Logic creates the impetus,
2. Time generates the signal,
3. And structure provides the confirmation.

Experience has shown that understanding the influence of time and trading logic is more
important to reaching a holistic view of the marketplace than (TPO Structure).
Structure acts as the market's translator, and translated information is second-hand information. The market has already
spoken in the form of time and logic. Traders who rely exclusively on structure without integrating time and logic will be late in entering and exiting the market.

I guess I dont need to mention origin of this quote. The point being until the logic behind Friday move is fully understood use of AMT does not differ much from any indicator as TPO itself is simple record of what has already passed and thus offer historical record with same amount of forecasting ability as any indicator.

I personally can offer only one explanation: short squeeze, which please correct me if I am wrong is not covered by AMT as it is not linked to the concept of fair value but rather to the concept of cutting your losses.

20231009 pre market

• On friday we had a strong up-day that broke out of the 11 day balance area and filled the gap
• Such emotional behaviour is mostly covering
• We open with gap down as a reaction to the war in israel
• From a technical standpoint we have to see if this breakout remains intact or if it fails
• I will watch the price-high as well as the value area hight of the balance area to judge this