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Decided to register and start a journal to keep myself accountable on my trading. Happy to receive feedback on my trades, I'm here to learn. Also hopefully some of you will the info here helpful, at very least by learning from my mistakes so you don't have to make them.
Each day I will post pre-market plan, trades taken and conclusions, along with trading account balance and P&L. I will start small, trading just 1-2 ES micros and scale up as my P&L (hopefully) grows.
Been trading futures on and off for approx. 2 years but not profitable yet. Goal is to achieve consistent profitability this year.
Rules
Only ES trades
5min timeframe but also using 1d/1h for trend and levels. 20EMA on all charts, no other indicators, no volume.
I trade either breakouts or reversals from logical higher time frame S/R levels. Both long and short but prefer to trade with higher time frame trend.
2 trades per day, max 10pt loss per day - currently my biggest flaw is overtrading
I will trade 1/2 of the max size that my bankroll allows - e.g. with 2.5k USD account I will trade 1 e-micro but allow 1 scale-in for total position of 2 micros. Size-up and size-down according to P&L.
Weekly profit target is 20pt
Current account size approx. 2k USD (will post exact number tomorrow) so weekly target is 100 USD, although real focus is on eliminating errors, patiently waiting for my setup and taking reasonable entries /w sensible profit targets (from R point of view).
Looking forward to journaling! First (well, second) post tomorrow.
Closed pre-market trade at breakeven since it didn't take off as planned. Choppy open so went to the gym, no other trades today.
Conclusions
Pre-market trade entry could've been better. Probably will try to avoid trading pre-market and focus on finding swing trades at the open 10am-11am and mid/late day around 12.30pm - 1pm.
Due to gym missed a good double bottom at 1pm but needed the workout. New day tomorrow.
Is trading the same as gambling? Gambling sounds like a bad thing but what is it?
To me gambling is taking negative EV plays or taking a positive EV bet with a bet size that is too large vs risk of ruin.
Example - if I play roulette I have -EV and therefore over a sufficient long period of time I will be guaranteed to lose money.
Example - let's assume I know how to count cards and I am able to play blackjack in the right setting (number of decks, how they are being suffled etc.) without being kicked out of casino. let's further assume this gives me an edge of 55% vs casino (which is too high but bear with me). if my edge is 55% there is a 57% change of losing a bet 5 times in a row and 31% percent change of losing a bet 6 times in a row. therefore my bet size vs bankroll has to be right otherwise i will go bust.
How does this relate to trading?
First, I need to have something that will give me a positive EV. This could be a technical setup such as double bottom, breakout. With any discretionary system mental game plays a big part. If the trader is not 100% in the game any positive EV he might normally have will be quickly wiped out. Not trading when not feeling 100% is +EV.
Second, I need to have a proper bankroll vs my position size. The minimum here with a small account would be 20 x bet size. So with a position size of 100 USD the min. account size should be 2k USD.
So, is trading gambling? It can be, depending on one's approach and quality of their setups. It's definitely same as betting but most things in life are.. e.g. taking on a job offer / betting on the company's outlook and your success in it, setting up a business / betting on the business idea and so forth.
No trades so far, market (ES) in TR. Waiting if something will setup between 12-1pm. Could be TR / smallish range all-day since GDP tomorrow at 8.30am so no trades is ok.
One short entry, was looking to get to 5212 level but closed after chop. Could work with a wide stop, selling more higher, but didn't feel this was a good probability play as can bounce up from here.
