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Boredom has never been a problem for me while trading, that is for sure. If anything, I am trying to slow down and be more selective. A few of my friends take just 1 to 5 big trades a day and do better than I do. I am in the middle of melding the fast and the slow trades. How? By "Trading around the core." I may have a micro on the MES, following the rules of the big trade, and on the MNQ I will take 5 o 10 scalps in the direction of the core move. This is still mostly theory right now. I get in trouble if I try to change up too much at once. LOL.
I have several TRO indicators sequestered on my computer somewhere. What a brilliant and generous guy.
Congrats on the micro trade. Seriously, they add up really fast. And with your skills, you could probably safely scale up to "one micro for each $300 in your account." That gives you 3 micros to hunt with. Success to you on the climb back.
When prices started moving down yesterday morning, I asked myself "how low can we go?
"Could we get all the way down to the 20 EMA at 4080? Sure, but that is pretty far in one day..."
I looked at my daily chart with the daily POC (point of control, or highest volume price) marked on each bar in yellow:
I noticed something really interesting after noting the 4136.50 POC from 4/14:
I saw that the 4123 level had a confluence of important levels from 5 previous days. Notice the yellow oval.
High, Close, Open, Close, Open all around that level! Amazing.
Then I thought that if we picked up steam and made it through 4123 that it could even go down as far as 4113 which was both the low of 4/14 and POC of 4/12.
But I was also thinking about VALUE, and considered the idea that 4123 was a really strong level, and that we would probably end up near there at the close.
So when price hit the lows at 4110.50, I was not afraid to try some longs.
Stepping back at looking at the big picture levels and thinking about Value has helped me stay on the right side of the market.
Yesterday was a big down day for sure. Often, big down days or big up days will be followed by confusion in the market. Confusion = Range Condition.
This is what I see right now:
A range from yesterday's low around 4110 up to the subsequent high at 4128.
The midpoint of that range is around 4120.
Therefore, 4120 is my range mid-line magnet for the morning action here.
Any attempt to break out of the range may be met with selling or buying back to the 4120 area. These "false breakouts" are very common.
Of course, eventually we will have a "true breakout." I have determined valid breakout points to be at 50% of the full range. (See my yellow vertical bars.)
In this case, I see 4137 on the high end, and 4102 on the low end.
So until 4137 or 4102 is broken, I am keeping my breakout ideas on a short leash....
Notice that we already had FOUR false breakouts on the upper end of the range.
(This is my 7 tick range bar ES chart with a 20 EMA)
Don't forget about your wins. Analyze your losses to understand the mistakes you made. But just as important to Analyze your wins and understand your strengths and trades you do well.
I would frame and hang the example of your wins and put the losses in the rear view mirror once you have used them to overcome your weaknesses.
Best of luck in the future.
“The major work of the world is not done by geniuses. It is done by ordinary people, with balance in their lives, who have learned to work in an extraordinary manner.”
― Gordon B. Hinckley
The upside breakout was clean for sure. But on the bigger scale, the "big confusion" remains, and I am not afraid to try some shorts.
We may yet get back to ATHs quickly, but there is ZERO doubt in my mind that the big bar yesterday woke up the Bulls after 12 months of hibernation.
All perma-bulls must be on their toes for the next month or so.
AND while the Big Boys beat each other up over the LONG TERM and intermediate direction of the market, I will be taking my 20 to 40 daily trades picking up the pieces they knock off of each other.
Seen the two Pacific Rim movies? The two giants are duking it out, but I am the scavenger making a buck off the pieces that fall off in the battle!
Im going to do that!!! Pictures and sticky notes to remind myself of those days. And I've had my share if those days.
On a few occasions I've wiped out my account in one day. Size of account made NO difference.
This is the one thing I have to get under control as well as we all do because it can happen on ANY day... stick to your %1 max stoploss per trade and it should not be an issue! (thats for me)
However I would say to Mr. Plank to look at YOUR loosers.
Take out the mistakes and outliers and see if you would be profitable? Then don't worry about your wins. Concentrate on not making mistakes.
If you are not profitable after pulling out those mistakes then your strategy might be flawed anyway.
I have a SHORT AT RESISTANCE... SHORT AT RESISTANCE... thing in my head on these days. And I too hit the commissions hard but hey thats part of doing business.
I dont care if I pay $1000 in commissions in a day if I can make a $1000 (totally made up numbers)
As far as the switching back and forth between range and breakout (trend), this is the main thing I have struggled with for so long.
After dozens (hundreds?) of hours licking my wounds and then analyzing the problem, I have determined that the Developing VAH and the Developing VAL (very close the +1 and -1 Standard Deviation of the VWAP) are the very "keys to the conundrum."
4138 at the +1SD of VWAP held beautifully on the dip. Until that is broken then we remain in the uptrend.
The OBV also says "careful on shorts here" as it is above price by a fair amount.
(1 tick renko bar on MES, with 20 EMA and +1 and +2 VWAP Standard Deviations and light blue squiggly OBV shown)
