2023 Rabbit

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inflation turn would trigger bonds, smalls since rate sensitive, but not yet near support

energy factor in inflation is also a hint along with real rates, post inflation

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wary of overall index pricing, bit of chasing vs. real support, but vix is not bouncing, bonds bid

china rallied behind active gov buying, and possible hike pause/end to suggest returns into treasuries

small caps, more rate sensitive picked up as well finding support, though unsure of major support area

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the mechanism of bonds inverse to indexes has yet to show

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possible test of mid resistance levels, again correlation off. cpi triggered dxy drop reverting inflation levels

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handspin

the mechanism of bonds inverse to indexes has yet to show

waiting for this to happen, at some point risk-off bond buying isn't a good thing

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right, rates dipping does not necessarily push indexes once risk off takes hold

looking at supports under 2020, possibly extensions to test 2015 areas

might restore the inverse correlation between stocks + bonds

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there is the possibility of japanification, where once you start this style of yield control stimulus, you cannot really go back

either way the upside for large cap tech, mag7, etc. is less desirable vs. other instruments that provide a better margin of safety

this is not to say that anything could continue to rise, but the inherent risk is magnified for those closer to resistance versus support

2023 Rabbit

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2023 Rabbit