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2023 Rabbit

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  #31 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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on slower days leading to an event, matching the index gains is enough

tech is lagging, vix move does not match, revisiting previous ramp to refill

shorter term, taken down through the overnight and R1, selling / exiting

//

targeted area, but has not hit closure, possibly a kneejerk reaction

followed by digestion post fomc to close the quarter near spx quarterlies

//

hitting the pause button. look at signature and svb, the sum larger than wamu

//

likely anticipation of rate overshoot, with reflexive panic, but rate setting is fair

to control latent inflation pockets, and a vote of confidence in the banking infrastructure

able to withstand further hikes, catching news interpretation off guard

//

midpoint of the wave, misread such that refill to support before further extension

1/4spoos show higher into eom to catchup to summer 22 into hopefully sideways

until next wave can grab further attention, also energy is based, vix overstepped

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  #32 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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upward bias but there is a test of support remaining, tech is responding first

//

gap fills below, also needs to recharge, likely support is inflection since this is not done

participants now digesting and should get to the spx quarterly target by eom

//

action also telling that HH/HL interspersed means continuation

//

dip confirmed, pretty strong as the test did not stay there long

retest would be support and give better positioning

two words: bluechips and growth

//

hit support eod and good area, some capitulation possibly

also filling the previous missing area

//

the bounce resumes after temp breaching wide area and retesting support

the 1/4spx still hanging above still time until eom

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  #33 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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this is the support test attempt to see if there is a turn, close but being defended

dip activity actually generates greater bounce magnitude as well, as HH / HL still remains

only difference is that yday S1 breached, today was PP and both also breached vwap

okay to hodl/swing, but have to recognize the extremeness of the dips and wait until retest

maybe reduce leverage to avoid getting caught in the wash since the movement is already there

//

interesting that with bank events ongoing, the technical outlook still sustains

doom and gloom contained, almost as if such events are welcome and less of a shock

overall dip still intact, though dampened, also vix range wider than correlated index

even compared to gold, seeming like the rounding of altogether pessimism topped up

headlines also generating peak fear to really put the cherry on top, euro session closing

//

looks like europe went to tea time and west coast is up and looking forward to next week

some commentary, asia data but nfp is after eom so the quarterly witching magic happens

extension is not finished, though there was a unique challenge this morning with events

enough confidence, better data might change sentiment but that would take a bit of time

large cap tech is leading, less influenced by region bank issues and eventually earnings

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  #34 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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end of week, tgif, etc. noting that tech is worth holding and the behavior overall does show HH/HL

will have to look into rotating into es/nq/ym as things develop. there is an earlier gap

however, this area was previously filled and seems to behave like a general support area

again, targets higher supported by quarterly spoos open interest and extensions higher possible

with europe still reeling, us and asian markets might lead though some fear is abound in general

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  #35 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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positive inside day on the summation of indexes, energy higher, large caps leading

tech may be the arb while dipping with google, crude is still gaining, but not gold

the drop in tech actually stops the ongoing momentum, eom flows may be reductive

associated volume / open interest on noted spx quartery is also shrinking to confirm

wavering the month prior to another earnings season, resolution of ongoing events

//

out of hodls since the extension did not pan out, energy is levitating

bond move index describing some vol underneath, where indexes might lag



saw this on twitter but this looks like something from a hedge subscription

still looking at crude thinking overextension, hoping not as recession indication

//

OI on spx quarters are still heavy, possibly being sold instead

a what if moment, if the nfp data lags and numbers start going under from layoffs

combined with continued hiking into storm until goods, real estate deflate hard

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  #36 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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good area for hedging, excess past prev support and now resistance, outside

still early, and needs to be confirmed, inside or re-test of resistance, okay with multiple tests

allows for deeper pullback, energy testing resistance as well, strength useful to reduce size

//

possible that there is rounding the other way, hanging around but not following through

//

normally takes another session to really confirm, needs to get under but also hit uppers

energy has already pulled back, suspense builds as spx quarterlies approach target

https://squeezemetrics.com/monitormonitormonitor/dix faded a bit as well, into full moon, etc. awoo

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  #37 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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quarterly spx target is close, not sure if there will be further extension, if so pullback will be larger

if not, the revert will be smaller, around mid-march, not the best time to initiate longer term

//

a further extension, say multiple pushes would be deleterious as a blow-off

possibly generating corrective measures toward mid-2020s

//

either way there is a bit of wiggle higher but not good R/R for mid-longer term

let's see how much of a dump this wants to take later

//

short term, seems like a rejection is forming temporarily, maybe they can move it higher

all in favor as the matching move would be extended in the other direction (for longer term)

//

energy is doing similar though there is not a prior capping resistance area

looking for finishing move toward quarter end

//

quarterlies spx hit, dark pools peeling, who are they selling to..

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  #38 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
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eom -> start of month will see if there is another breach of resistance

some waning, but the further the extension the bigger the dip later

energy is also in a similar mode, huge activity on the quarterlies on both sides

since they are now really just 0dtes

//

targeting areas higher to finish but also extends the pullback to around mid mar

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  #39 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
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targets long term are far and wide, eventually near ath

altogether which makes short term less certain but longer timeframes are pointing there

those accumulating since H2 22 will do well and probably already are, adding another 25% on top of what is already there

not to mention compounding.. after that, no idea

on a normal portfolio, this should offset capital gains and inflation..

//

trick is to figure out shorter / mid and only the thing is really to capture rebounds from S1 for now, maybe set puts in that scenario to accumulate

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  #40 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 311 since Dec 2012
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april 01 fine print, though the s1 strategy seems to work, the targets probably are not that high for medium term

commodities, energy gold are climbing, inflation indicators still rising, not sure what impact foreign buyers have on real estate

//

at least healthcare is doing ok for now, pb prob continues, look at energy go

some strangeness on level extremes

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Last Updated on December 28, 2023


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