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My preference is for taking intraday setups (short or long) in the current market direction. Profit target on the YM is 15 ticks with a runner.
My question is for the experienced traders out there....What are the indications that it will be a range-bound day?
I know this can't be predicted with 100% accuracy, but, what signs do you look out for?
The range of the initial balance?
The volume of the initial balance?
Pre-market (730-930) range and volume?
Whether the market gaps up / down?
If today's open is above yesterday's close / high?
If today's open is below yesterday's close / low?
Opening significantly outside of value area highor low?
As a YM trader should I look at ES volume in the initial balance for signs?
Can the market internals provide an indication? (TRIN, TICK, VIX)?
Could anyone steer me in the right direction, please?
Pull up a daily chart of your fav contract and have a look. After a wide ranging day there is a good chance, absent to news that you could have a narrow range day...thats one way.
easiest way is to use market profile - on trend days the POC area acts as sup/res. Also, if the POC is continually moving in one direction as the market balances & breaks out & repeats, or especially if there's minus development usually by the third period w/ a nice long tail in the first period, you are likely looking at a trend & strong trend day, respectively. See attached pic for a recent example.
But if the market is having an equal time above and below it as periods develop and become part of the profile, odds are you are looking at backward price influence and might find a lucrative opportunity @ the extremes, especially when a high/low gives on a hard push & you suddenly find the market is far away from the value area.
Study past charts of rotational days to see what reversals @ the extremes look like - tick charts can help with this, as they somewhat capture the price action from the DOM onto the chart.
