20240801 pre market


News
yesterday fed
today amc amzn and aapl
tomotoow nfp

Condition 1
yesterday we broke out of 5 day balance
as long as we do not accept below yrthl the market should be up

Condition 0
eth spent most of time in upper half
but was not able to gain more
onh is weak and poor

Thoughts
Anything can happen with this news flow
If we were really strong we would see a gap up today which we do not
NQ is still relatively weak for example in relation to the gap which ES has already filled

20240802 pre market


News
the big numbers are behind us now

Condition 1
yesterday strong outide day down trendday
this brings us to an attempt to breakout of the balance area

Condition 0
we open with a huge gap down
but a good distance away from the onl (which makes covering-trades harder)

Thoughts
the tone is clearly bearish
only acceptance back in the balance area would change that perhaps
we are on day 2 of the newest sell off so its not totally fresh but also not matured
Expect high vola, trade signposts, not noise

20240805 pre market



News
09:45 numbers
10:00 ism

Condition 1
big sell off

Condition 0
open with very huge gap
oni is very short

Thoughts
High vola sell off environment

Save mental energy:
-check your size
-always scale out
-find final exit

Trading:
The most obvious trade is a short after a covering move
Covering moves are also tradeaable but better go for only one leg

While it is an uncommon situation trade your game as always (adopted to volatility)

20240806 pre market



News
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
Dynamic down move
Yesterdays candle is green but that means nothing. Value is clean lower

Condition 0
Yesterday formed an p-shape
We open in the middle of the belly

Thoughts
Expect chop in the belly
The edge is at the edges

We are around yearly vwap and yearly volume poc
This could lead to a little rest here and chop

20240807 pre market



News
1300 bond auction

Condition 1
Consolidation

Condition 0
we open near y h

Thoughts
For now what we se is a consolidation of the last down move
We have to watch live what develops out of this

20240808 pre market



News
1300 bond auction

Condition 1
Consolidating

Condition 0
we tried to go lower in eth but failed
jumped up after jobs data
open in the middle of y range

Thoughts
Still at yearly vpoc and vwap
Not a day for early plays
Let the market show you what it wants to do

20240809 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
Consolidation
weak high
high in eth

Condition 0
yesterday inside day
we open in upper third of yesterdays range

Thoughts
Trendday down, trendday up, the market does not know where to go yet
If we see a breakout, monitor for coninuation or lack of

20240812 pre market



News
today nothing big
tuesday ppi
wednesday ppi

Condition 1
what looked like a normal consolidation is more a grinding up
more and more shorts have to cover if this continues
it is otf up on the daily
Do not think about short swings until we see a breach of that otf
catchin tops and bottoms is a loosing game

Condition 0
we open near fridays high

Thoughts
Those who go for homeruns pay those who go for singles

20240813 pre market



News
we had ppi
13:15 feds bostic

Condition 1
we continue to grind up slowly
wait for a breach of otf before taking bigger short risks

Condition 0
we explored a little higher with ppi but did not continue
we open near y h

Thoughts
Continue to go for singles and doubles and leave the homeruns for others

20240814 pre marekt



News
we had cpi
-

Condition 1
the conso is getting stronger and stronger
potential to develop a v-turn
but can also roll over to the short side

Condition 0
open with small gap up

Thoughts
If we take back the trendday august, 1, the downswing should be over