20240905 pre market



News
we had job numbers today
9:45 and 10:00 numbers
romorrow nfp

Condition 1
Breaking out of 3w balance

Condition 0
we open in the lower part of yesterdays range

Thoughts
yesterday is a conso of the breakout and can be treated like an inside day
For me this is bearish altough we did not see continuation yesterday (which i wanted to see on a fresh breakout)
Acceptance above y high or inside balance area would change the tone

20240906 pre market



News
we had nfp
feds williams speaks at the moment
feds waller at 11:00

Condition 1
imbalanced down
oft down

Condition 0
eth went lower but come back in range with numbers

Thoughts
the bias is down until we see change (acceptance over daily highs)
you can always scalp any direction to profit from small imbalances, eg coverings
In that sense the scalper gets paid from the swinger

20240910 pre market



News
10:00 feds barr
12:15 feds bowman

Condition 1
Consolidating the down move
Yesterday inside day

Condition 0
open with small gap up

Thoughts
The market normally needs some time to balance/consolidate
As long as this balance is building it is a time to only scalp and not go for bigger moves

20240911 pre market



News
we had cpi
1300 bond auction

Condition 1
Consolidating the last down move

Condition 0
we open near y h
eth tested lower but was not able

Thoughts
Anything can happen

20240912 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
Strong Covering yesterday

Condition 0
Opening in uppest tpo from yesterday

Thoughts
The market behaviour strongly relates to my believe no4 from post 1/page 1 (high degree of speculators in the market)
Do not get trapped in the idea that the market has to go up now
This was not long term money yesterday. This was covering
If it was the move of a covering-structure we could next see the belly of it

After a long holiday i am back

20241010 pre market



News
we had cpi and job numbers
11:00 feds williams
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
Trying to break out of 4 week balance

Condition 0
we open in the middle of y range

Thoughts
Balance rules apply
No reason for early trade, let the market show its hand

20241011 pre market



News
we had ppi
10:00 numbers
13:10 feds bowman

Condition 1
Trying to break out of 4 w balance
Yesterday inside day

Condition 0
we open in the middle of y range

Thoughts
Treat y inside day as a balance, balance rules apply
the edge is at the edges

20241014 pre market



News
09:00 feds kaskari

Condition 1
Breaking out of 4w balance

Condition 0
open with gap up

Thoughts
The market is bullish but inventory is already long
Do not sit on the flagpole
Wait for at least a liitle pullback/liquidation

20241015 pre market



News
11:30 feds daly

Condition 1
NQ yesterday broke out of a large balance area and held
Balance rules apply

Condition 0
eth is inside y range

Thoughts
If we confirm the breakout with higher prices i would trade the long side

2041016 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
otf up is broken
Coming into balance

Condition 0
open in range

Thoughts
In ES yesterdays liquidation did not much damage. We are stll clearly above the last balance area
In NQ for now it looks like the breakout has failed
I expect choppy action inside yesterdays ranges
Definitively a day to trade later rather than sooner