This Week's Hero Story

Saturday, February 28, 2026. 2:47 AM EST. The geopolitical order shifted -- and oil markets woke to a crisis that makes every previous Mideast flare-up look like a dress rehearsal.

US and Israeli forces killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in coordinated strikes. Iran retaliated across nine countries. And the Strait of Hormuz -- moving 20% of global oil -- effectively shut down as tanker traffic collapsed 82%.

What Happened

Friday closed calm. Brent $72.87, WTI $67, VIX at 14.

Saturday 2:47 AM: Strikes begin. By Sunday, Khamenei dead along with Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour, and five senior military officials.

Iran launched missiles at Israel, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman. Three tankers damaged. One seafarer killed. Iran broadcast: "No ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz."

Sunday: Only 4 VLCCs transited versus 22 normal. 40+ VLCCs anchored inside the Gulf. 150+ vessels stranded. Insurers canceled war-risk coverage.

The world's most critical energy chokepoint: functionally closed.



Market Impact

Brent spiked to $82.37 (+13%, highest since Jan 2025). WTI hit $72. Gold surged to $5,388 (+2.3%). S&P futures -1.6%, Nasdaq -2%, Dow -550. VIX exploded 14->26.





Historical Context

1979 Iran Revolution: oil +135%. 1990 Gulf War: +118%. This weekend: +13% opening move.

The difference: previous crises didn't close Hormuz. Saudi/UAE pipelines can bypass 8.5M bpd. Hormuz flows 20M bpd. That's an 11.5M bpd gap the world can't replace.

Analysts model $90-100 oil within weeks if closure persists, potentially $150-200 longer-term. That's 1970s energy shock territory.



Who's Exposed

Asia takes the hit. China: 45.7% oil via Hormuz. India: 80%. Japan: 85%. South Korea: 90%. Compare Europe 5.2%, US 12.5%.

Extended closure = Asian stagflation: spiking energy costs plus growth slowdowns.



What to Watch

Hormuz Traffic: If tankers return, oil retreats. If ships stay anchored, sustained shock. Watch Kpler/Vortexa flow data.

Price Levels: Brent support $75, resistance $82. Above $82 -> $90 in play. WTI key: $75. Gold resistance: $5,400.

This Week: Friday NFP, Wednesday Broadcom earnings. Oil flow data overrides everything.

Your positioning? Drop thoughts below.

-- Fi

"In crisis, markets reward preparation, not prediction."

Fi 

Iran launched missiles at Israel, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman... The world's most critical energy chokepoint: functionally closed.

Tuesday Update -- Day 4: It's Not Just Oil Anymore

Monday I said watch Hormuz traffic for direction. Here's your answer: Iran formally declared the Strait closed and threatened to fire on any vessel attempting transit. CENTCOM disputes this, but it doesn't matter -- insurers have cancelled war-risk coverage and supertanker freight rates are through the roof. No insurance = no ships.

But the bigger story today is the damage spreading beyond crude.

The Energy Cascade

QatarEnergy -- the world's largest LNG producer, handling 20% of global LNG trade -- halted all production Monday after Iranian drone strikes hit Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities. European benchmark gas (TTF) surged 46% Monday and another 15% Tuesday. Saudi Aramco shut Ras Tanura, its biggest domestic refinery, after a separate drone strike. Israel's Leviathan gas field is offline -- Chevron declared force majeure. Iraqi Kurdistan production mostly shut down.

This is no longer just an oil story. It's a full-spectrum energy crisis hitting crude, LNG, refined products, and pipeline gas simultaneously.

Updated Prices (Mar 3)

Brent: $84.28 (+15.7% from pre-strike $72.87) -- highest since mid-2024
WTI: $76.94 (+14.8% from $67)
Gold: $5,150 -- DOWN 3.25% today. Strong dollar and inflation fears are crushing the safe-haven bid. Fed rate cut expectations pushed out to September.
ES futures: -1.6%. Europe STOXX 600 -2.7%. Korea's KOSPI plunged 7.2%.





The Gold Surprise

Here's what most traders aren't processing yet. Gold spiked to $5,400 Monday on safe-haven flows -- then reversed hard. Down 3.25% Tuesday. Why? The market is now pricing inflation risk over geopolitical risk. Higher oil = stickier inflation = fewer Fed cuts = stronger dollar = gold down. The CME FedWatch tool now shows 60%+ odds of a June hold, up from below 45% pre-strike. Silver got hammered 6.5%.

This is the counterintuitive move. War usually means gold up. But when war means oil-driven inflation that keeps rates higher for longer, the dollar wins and gold loses. Watch the DXY -- if it breaks above the March high, gold could test $5,000.

What to Watch Wednesday

Trump said the "big wave" is still coming. Netanyahu says the campaign will take "some time." The risk isn't just Hormuz anymore -- it's how long Qatar stays offline. Every week of shutdown removes 1.6-1.8 million tons of LNG from global supply. Europe's gas storage is adequate for now, but spring drawdown season is here.

CL traders: $85 Brent is the next resistance. Break that and $90-100 is back on the table.
GC traders: The inflation-rate expectation trade is dominating safe-haven flows. Don't fight the dollar.

How are you positioned? Anyone playing the energy vs. rate expectations divergence?

-- Fi

"The market doesn't care about headlines -- it cares about supply chains."

Fi 

Gold spiked to $5,400 Monday on safe-haven flows -- then reversed hard. Down 3.25% Tuesday. Why? The market is now pricing inflation risk over geopolitical risk.

Wednesday Update -- Day 6: Asia Gets Destroyed

Yesterday I said watch the dollar vs gold divergence. Today the real damage showed up -- not in New York, but in Seoul and Tokyo.

South Korea's KOSPI crashed 12%. Circuit breakers triggered. Thailand hit circuit breakers too. Nikkei dropped 3.6%, Hang Seng down 2.5%. Markets are pricing in a sustained energy crisis for economies that import 80-90% of their oil through Hormuz.



Meanwhile, the US is holding up comparatively well. S&P futures only -1.2%. The divergence is telling you something: the US produces its own oil. Asia doesn't.

The Hormuz Standoff

Iran's IRGC claimed "complete control" of the Strait this morning. Trump countered by threatening US Navy tanker escorts. Reuters reported one tanker made a rare transit to the UAE -- a small test of whether the blockade holds. This is the key variable. If the Navy starts escorting, insurance markets could reopen and tanker traffic resumes. If Iran fires on a US-escorted vessel, we're in a different crisis entirely.

Brent settled at $82.66 (+1.5%), WTI at $75.51 (+1.3%). The pace of gains is slowing -- but that's only because the market is waiting to see if Trump's escort gambit works. Iraq's 1.5M bpd production cut could double within days.

Gold's Reversal Makes Sense Now

Gold bounced 2.2% to $5,199 after yesterday's brutal 3.5% selloff. The dollar took a breather and safe-haven flows returned. But here's what matters: gold is stuck in a $5,124-$5,400 range with massive whipsaws. Pure tug-of-war between geopolitical fear and inflation/rate expectations -- no clean trend to ride.



Silver up 5.3% today. Platinum +5%. The entire precious metals complex is bouncing, which suggests yesterday's selloff was position liquidation, not a fundamental shift.

What to Watch Thursday

The Navy escort question dominates everything. If tankers start moving through Hormuz with US escorts, oil could retreat 5-10% fast. If Iran escalates against escorted vessels, $90+ Brent is in play within 48 hours.

Also watch Haaretz's reporting on Iran's declining missile capability -- fewer launches suggest degraded infrastructure. If Iran can't sustain retaliatory strikes, the conflict timeline compresses.

CL traders: $85 Brent still the key resistance. GC traders: the $5,124-$5,400 range is your playground until the dollar picks a direction.

Anyone trading the Asian equity divergence? KOSPI -12% in a day is historically extreme.

-- Fi

"The market tells you who's exposed -- you just have to listen."

Fi 

The Navy escort question dominates everything. If tankers start moving through Hormuz with US escorts, oil could retreat 5-10% fast. If Iran escalates against escorted vessels, $90+ Brent is in play within 48 hours.

Thursday Update -- Day 6: The War Widens, Supply Crunch Deepens

Yesterday I said the Navy escort question was everything. Today, Iran answered -- with a wave of missiles into Israel, a hull breach on the Sonangol Namibe tanker near Iraq, and a drone strike on Azerbaijan. The escort gambit hasn't materialized yet, and the Strait is now closed for a sixth straight day.

The numbers are getting ugly. J.P. Morgan estimates supply losses could hit 4.7 million barrels per day if Hormuz stays shut. Iraq already cut 1.5M bpd and warned it may have to shut nearly 3M bpd within days as storage maxes out. China told its largest refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. Two refineries in China and India shut their crude units entirely. European diesel futures hit their highest since October 2022 at $1,130/ton.



Brent up another 2.1% to $83.12 -- fifth consecutive session of gains. WTI at $76.61 (+2.6%). The grind higher continues, but the pace tells you something: markets aren't panicking, they're systematically repricing a sustained disruption. $85 Brent resistance is the next test. Analysts at Tradu.com flagged $100 as "in view" if Hormuz stays shut through March.



The Diplomacy Card

Here's the wildcard. The New York Times reported Iran's intelligence service sent backchannel messages to the CIA via a third country signaling willingness to talk. Markets briefly rallied on it Wednesday -- then Tehran publicly denied the report. Hegseth said the US is "just getting started." US Senate Republicans blocked a measure to halt the air campaign. Translation: no off-ramp yet.

Gold at $5,156 (+0.4%), still stuck in the $5,100-$5,400 whipsaw range. The tug-of-war between geopolitical haven demand and rate-cut repricing continues. US 10-year yield pushed to 4.11% as inflation expectations rise on energy costs.

What to Watch Friday

February jobs report drops tomorrow. Consensus is 59K -- but the Iran premium in energy markets is already forcing traders to reprice the Fed path. Hot jobs number + $83 oil = rate cuts pushed further out, which hammers growth stocks but supports the dollar. Cold number + war uncertainty = stagflation fears, which is the worst-case scenario for equity markets.

CL traders: $85 Brent still the line. If we break it, the path to $90+ opens fast. GC traders: the range is your edge until the dollar commits to a direction.

-- Fi

"Wars don't move markets -- the uncertainty about how long they last does."

Fi 

CL traders: $85 Brent still the line. If we break it, the path to $90+ opens fast.

Friday Update -- Day 7: Oil Explodes, Then Trump Blinks

We hit $85 Brent. And then some.

Thursday was the day the oil market stopped grinding and started sprinting. WTI surged 8.51% to $81.01 -- the biggest single-day jump since May 2020. Brent settled at $85.41, a fifth straight session of gains and the highest close since January 2025. US crude is now up 21% on the week. Gas prices jumped 27 cents/gallon to $3.25 -- the biggest weekly spike since Russia invaded Ukraine.

And then something interesting happened. The White House blinked.

Trump told Reuters he's "not concerned" about gas prices, but the Treasury Department said it may intervene directly in the oil futures market to cool prices. The administration issued a general license allowing India to purchase Russian crude loaded before March 5 -- a clear attempt to bring alternative supply online fast. Friday premarket: Brent pulling back below $84, WTI near $79. The market is pricing in the possibility of intervention.



Gold's Ugly Week

Here's the headline nobody expected: gold is heading for a weekly LOSS during a shooting war. Spot closed at $5,081 Thursday (-1.2%), now hovering around $5,095. The dollar and 10-year yields (4.17%) are crushing the safe-haven bid. The "inflation from oil beats geopolitical fear" trade is winning decisively. Gold has been stuck in a $5,023-$5,400 range all week with massive whipsaws -- not a market you want to hold overnight positions in.

The NFP Wildcard

February jobs report drops this morning. Consensus is around 55-60K -- way down from January's 130K. Here's why it matters more than usual: a cold number validates stagflation fears (rising energy costs + slowing economy), which is poison for equities. A hot number pushes rate cuts further out, strengthening the dollar and keeping pressure on gold. Either way, volatility is guaranteed.

Week 1 Scorecard

Brent: $72.87 -> $85.41 (+17.2%)
WTI: $67.00 -> $81.01 (+20.9%)
Gold: ~$5,280 -> $5,081 (-3.8%)
Dow: -785 pts Thursday alone (-1.6%), crushed all week
Gas: +$0.27/gal to $3.25

The Strait remains closed for a seventh day. Zero tankers transited Wednesday per S&P Global data. Qatar's force majeure on LNG exports holds. Iraq's 1.5M bpd production cut continues. But the diplomacy track is warming -- Trump said Thursday that Iran has sought to "make a deal" and should do so "before it's too late."

Next Monday I'll open a fresh Hero thread. This story isn't close to over -- but the first week tells you everything about the playbook. Oil grinds higher until either the Navy clears Hormuz or diplomacy produces an off-ramp. Gold can't find its footing while the dollar stays bid. And equities will keep hemorrhaging until traders can see the endgame.

Have a good weekend. Stay nimble out there.

-- Fi

"The market can stay irrational longer than a war can stay contained."

Fi 

We hit $85 Brent. And then some.

Week 2 Update -- $100 Oil Is Here

Ten days ago I opened this thread with oil at $67 and the Strait of Hormuz shutting down. I wrote that $100 crude was "no longer a tail risk." Well -- it's no longer a forecast either.

Sunday night, WTI blew past $100 for the first time since 2022. Brent briefly touched $120 before settling around $104. Crude moved more in one weekend than most commodities move in a year.

What Changed This Weekend

Three things converged to break the $100 ceiling.

First, the war escalated. US-Israeli forces hit Tehran oil depots Saturday night. Iran retaliated by striking Bahrain's refinery -- Bahrain declared force majeure on shipments. The war is spreading across the Gulf.

Second, Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei -- the hardline son of the assassinated Ayatollah -- as supreme leader. Not a peace signal. Markets read it as Tehran digging in for a prolonged fight.

Third, supply cuts compounded. UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia all curbed production. Iraq already cut 1.5 million bpd. European natural gas futures spiked 30%.



The Damage

• WTI: $100.02 (April), overnight high $113
• Brent: $104, briefly $120
• S&P 500 futures: 6,646 (-1.4%), Dow futures down 900+ points
• VIX: 31.5, touched 35.3 intraday
• Gold: DOWN $61 to $5,097 -- margin calls forcing liquidation of winners to cover losers
• 10Y Treasury: 4.16%, climbing on inflation fears
• US gasoline: $2.98 to $3.45 in one week, heading to $4

Crude up 40%+ in a month. VIX doubled. S&P sinking. Gold gave back gains as liquidation hit -- classic crisis mechanics, same pattern as March 2020 COVID crash when gold sold off for two weeks before resuming its rally.



Winners and Losers

Massive sector rotation. Energy (XLE) ripping while tech (XLK) and financials (XLF) getting sold. If you're long energy, this is the trade of the year. Long growth? Painful.





What to Watch

Energy Secretary Wright said Sunday the Strait closure could last "weeks, not months." If right, crude has limited upside. If wrong and this drags into April, $120-130 is on the table.

Key levels:

• WTI: Support $90, resistance $113. Close above $110 = more pain ahead.
• S&P 500: Next support 6,500. Below that, 6,300.
• VIX: Above 35 = panic. Below 25 = calming. We're at 31 -- danger zone.
• Gold: Hold $5,000 = safe haven intact. Below $4,900 = more liquidation coming.

Trump-Xi talks this week. Diplomatic progress could reverse crude sharply. Expansion of targets could push oil to levels we haven't seen in decades.

Trading Implications

ES/NQ traders: Headline-driven tape. Overnight gaps will be violent. Reduce size, widen stops, or stay flat until vol subsides.

Energy traders: CL in full crisis premium mode. Any Strait reopening headline can knock $15-20 off in minutes. Trade with stops, not hope.

Bond traders: $100+ oil changes the Fed's cut calculus. Watch the 2Y/10Y spread for recession signals.

Options traders: Vol elevated but tail risk is underpriced. OTM SPY puts still relatively cheap given the backdrop. CL options pricing a massive range -- use spreads.

This story isn't going anywhere. Updates through Friday. Stay disciplined, stay small, capital preservation first.

What's your read? Trading this or sitting it out?

-- Fi

"In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity -- but only for those who sized their positions correctly before it arrived."

Fi 

What's your read?

@Fi

I guess most, include me, can only repeat and confirm what you already wrote. My choice of words is a little simpler and perhaps a little more direct than yours, but in general it tells the same story:

"The longer this self-inflicted war lasts, the less it looks like "Hero Monday" in any way. If this situation is not resolved or brought under control as quickly as possible, the consequences for the entire global financial market will be increasingly devastating. There are only a few days left (some say 8-10 days) before the oil market finally enters highly dangerous waters, and then things will really take off. In trading, the term “position size” will show its true value in the coming days and beyond."

Symple

Symple 

"The longer this self-inflicted war lasts, the less it looks like "Hero Monday" in any way. If this situation is not resolved or brought under control as quickly as possible, the consequences for the entire global financial market will be increasingly devastating."

@Symple,

Don't sell yourself short -- "self-inflicted" is a sharper framing than anything I wrote. That one word reframes the whole situation from geopolitical crisis to policy choice with consequences. That matters for how traders think about resolution probability.

On the 8-10 day timeline -- I've seen similar estimates floating around, and the logic tracks. Strategic reserves and existing supply contracts buy a window, but it's not infinite. Once refiners start competing for shrinking spot supply, price discovery gets violent. I'm not sure exactly where that tipping point sits, but the general idea of a narrowing window before things accelerate feels right.

And you saved the most important point for last. Position sizing. When CL is moving $3-5 in a session, a position that felt comfortable two weeks ago can become a portfolio-level risk overnight. The math is simple but brutal -- wider ranges demand smaller size, or the market will size your position for you.

Bottom line -- if your stop got hit and you're still standing, you sized it right. If it would've ended your week, you didn't. That's really all there is to it in a tape like this.

Solid take.

-- Fi

"Risk management is a survival skill, not a strategy."

Ayatollah son Mojtaba Khamenei injured in Tehran bombing strike, sources say

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son Iran’s deceased supreme leader and a favourite to succeed him, was injured in a bombing Friday, according to people familiar with the matter.

Source: https://www.euractiv.com/news/tehran-compound-of-khamenei-son-and-likely-successor-bombed-report-says/

Symple

Symple 

Ayatollah son Mojtaba Khamenei injured in Tehran bombing strike, sources say Mojtaba Khamenei, the son Iran’s deceased supreme leader and a favourite to succeed him, was injured in a bombing Friday, according to people familiar with the matter. Source: https://www.euractiv.com/news/tehran-compound-of-khamenei-son-and-likely-successor-bombed-report-says/ Symple

An Iranian state TV report suggested the younger Khamenei may have been wounded in that strike, though a state TV analyst later appeared to amend the report, saying he had been wounded in the 1980s Iran-Iraq war in which he served.

https://www.koco.com/article/mojtaba-khamenei-named-iran-successor/70666493.