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Hi. Interested in other opinions on this instrument as well. I'm looking at the R3 resistance line (in purple) on the chart and corresponding cumulative delta (R3 in purple on the lower panel) showing a large delta divergence. So the difference between the R3 delta line 8k and current delta -28k is about -38k.
If price starts to spike heavily above the last resistance line and blows through the Low Volume Area (shown in pink) we could see a pretty big pop. The Euro has been in a beautiful trading range and I was going to look at shorts at the pink line back into value for a high risk/reward trade. I don't like this large net short position though and the fact that value is starting to build higher as evidenced by three successively higher POCs and value overlapping higher so I'm not considering shorts right now. Still have a long trade trigger/setup under the value area low which has been adjusted to an upward move of the value area high.
If we near 1.28 on Friday or Sunday beginning on the open @/near 5pm est I will then take profits (66%) and wait for another pullback--perhaps quite deep after Sunday night; then yet again move powerfully to the upside beginning after 10am est on Wed. June 20th...
This is how I trade a monthly cycle low; I am in on moderate and deep pullbacks within an established uptrend AFTER I have confirmed the bottom (that is still holding). I am out majority 2/3rd's on impulsive upmoves to NEW highs. Then I work my way back to 100% allocation on said moderate and deep pullbacks.
On a trade that I put on (since I am trading more than 3 contracts) I go in 10 (16.5% of total position)/20 (33% of total position)/10 (16.5% of total position).
5 for the 'moderate' pullback zone I 'expect' will reverse. If I am a bit early I then put on 10 within the deeper pullback. When we have cleared my entry zone that I put 5 on; I add my final 5 on confirmation of the initial trade.
Recall, I have a MONTHLY cycle low for 6E (which means it has until the end of the month to confirm); it could continue up to 1.28'ish' and then have a volatile Sunday night through Tuesday {shaking out smaller retail players} then stabilize througout the rest of June, building strength for a MULTI-MONTH advance off of the Monthly Cycle Low.
That is how trading a 'monthly' cycle high/low works. Same with Weekly & Daily respectively (it is all fractal).
I look forward to the next 10 market days of volatility; the planets have built up some torque: time to release the hounds!!
Yesterday was a consolidation day, as the Euro tested the territory gained on Wednesday. During the European session it stuck to value, during the US session it moved up to the first resistance area.
Today the pivot range (blue range) is narrow indicating that there is a potential for a large move. However, with the election being scheduled for Sunday, that large move is probably due on Monday, not today. Today's picture is bullish:
this morning the EURUSD tested the area between support and resistance. As the chart shows all potential S/R lines well aligned, so S/R was easy to locate
Resistance:
-> Fibonacci Confluence line (blue)
-> Auction Range
-> 1st Jackson Zone resistance band
-> yesterday's high
Support:
-> Fibonacci Confluence line (red)
-> pivot range (ETH)
-> yesterday's VWAP (orange)
-> yesterday's settlement (yellow)
I took a short last night off the VWAP/POC covered in the "teens," it was a nice trade, took little heat but it was SLOW and boring.
I jumped on this long this morning at the PIVOT, added at the -2SD level, had another order 2 ticks lower but didn't get filled. Sold approaching the VWAP. I'm done, but I'll probably be sitting here Sunday afternoon.
Have a great weekend guys, and forget about the Mighty Euro for a couple days.