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Luck -- I had a position yesterday price can back to take my stop out and it didnt hit by 2 pips and then went to my target 40 pips . Does that count as luck lol .
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I have also heard the statistic that 95% of traders loose money. But i am always curious to know? what is considered a trader? Is a trader a person who places a single trade? Or is it a trader that opens a brokerage account?
This is important because if you consider a person who places a single trade a trader, then I suspect the number on unsuccesful traders will be much bigger than 95%.
I have also heard that people who are succesful in trading, are so purely due to statistical chance. This would be the same as the chance of flipping ten heads in a row when flipping a coin. The probability of this happening is extremely low, but it can happen. That would imply that it requires no skills, just pure luck, and i have to disagree with that.
I think trading is hard because there is no formal education, and with leverage, most people will blow their account and give up before getting where they need to be. Lets extrapolate the process to become a trader to another profession. Lets pick a physician or a lawyer.
If you saw your friend trying to learn medicine or law from youtube, you would think they are crazy. You would probably never hire them to address your health care needs or get you out of jail. Yet, most people search for resources like youtube and the internet to learn how to trade, which is not exactly ideal. Anyone whose has ?an edge? will not give it to you, it took them time and money to get it.
I compare the the rush of adrenaline of placing the first trade, to the first time A resident runs a code blue? with practice that rush eventually goes away. There are things that are harder than trading. Medicine is so hard, that after preparing for 4 years, and going to medical school for four years, one still needs 3-8 more years of supervised practice to be able to be considered halfway decent. I think that if one is proficient at self teachung, then one has a shot at learning how to trade, if you need to be taught to learn, then it becomes harder to do.
Now as a disclamer, i am not anywhere close where i would like to be. This is just my 2 cents.
I'm hoping a new trader, and new member can add some input.
I've tried to zoom out and see the market for what I think it really is. It's this weird nebulous entity that people try to corral into something meaningful and predictable. I think newer traders like me try to compartmentalize it with indicators, news, and I've even seen astrology being a catalyst for price! Not sure how that works.
What I have tried to pick up on is how price action works and how volume effects it. I do firmly believe that the chart is a picture of human psychology at work. I've often asked myself why is price doing what it's doing at this location and how the action before it is effecting it currently. That's really my focus at this point. I've come to the conclusion that most indicators are just the "yes men" of price action...anyway
What's really been fascinating is how people interpret this information very differently from one another and yet both end up with the same conclusion. There's a common thread that exists in price movement that when people know where to find it and lock into it they become successful. I enjoy watching other traders post their session and see how their entries and reasons for taking those entries differ from mine. It gives me perspective which definitely helps a new guy like me get profitable.
I also liken the market to a colossal rolling boulder, just rolling aimlessly. The trick is to run along side and jump on for a while then jump off. Sometimes you miss and get left behind...sometimes you end up in front of it, I've spent some time there for sure.
Yes, this is all very sad and discouraging. But, in my view, this is like the life of a Gambler; and I don't mean to insult traders in general at all.
The human mind quickly convinces itself that it sees "patterns" and that these patterns allow to predict. In retrospect, school children can tell you where to buy and sell; but to be a trader you must be able to predict the future at the very least.
First of all, although I'd like to help by providing tools, etc. I have decided I have nothing to sell, and certainly nothing which the general trader could possibly use. My approach to trading is Highly Technical. By "Highly" I mean, dedicated server, colocation of server, use of fast platform and custom analytics which detect events that are so fast, a manual trader doesn't even see them.
So I'm a technical trader in the extreme; and I believe in total dedication to trading of a single "niche", which in my case is the Nasdaq futures contract.
I've dedicated way more than a decade to this quest; and am achieving breakthroughs even now... So it's a long hard road, even assuming you have the technology and the motivation.
Trading is a paradox. It seems to obvious and easy, until you try to do it; and then you realize you can easily be brought to your knees in desperation.
In this forum, I'm not going to tell you not to try; but just to understand that you will fail, unless you have extraordinary ability and motivation; and you may destroy a lot of your personal life in the journey toward becoming profitable. Sorry.
One of the reasons is that some of us, including me, first and foremost, are very poor listeners. I've been trading full time for many years, and it took me a while to get consstently profitable. But, looking at my notes in my trading book of the time, here's what I got at a free seminar back in the early days of the NY Traders Expo:
"How To Succeed In Trading
1. Study, listen, ask, experiment, learn;
2. Decide if you'd rather trade off price action or indicators - the former is preferable, but a very tight indicator may help;
3. Money management is key and you need a good method here - try not to lose money - profits (hopefully) will follow;
4. Decide if you'd rather have a high win rate with profit targets close to stop loss levels, or lower win rates with profit targets greater than stop losses - your personal psychology is very important, do what feels right for you;
5. Backtest very carefully and patiently - many, many times, so that your confidence in your system gets to be high and you are not afraid to pull the trigger at the appropriate time - don't go into a gunfight with a (hesitant) knife;
6. Start with a small account that you are not afraid to lose and grow it with your profits gradually - be careful not to add external funds to it prematurely just because things may be looking good at that time;
7. Ask yourself: do you like doing this trading thing, is it fun, is it fulfilling, is that what you want to do for a living, really? If not, you'll fail; if yes, you'll make it."
Unfortunately, it took me years and dozens of trading books before I re-read those notes and started following that wise speaker's suggestions. As I said, poor listening skills.
This post right here should be pinned and sent to every new member at FIO. Well done, @matthew28. Having backed traders professionally and through my day-to-day dealings with traders, it is starkly obvious that what is being offered below is the truth (focus on avoiding losses, getting hijacked by emotions that we can't control, not thinking in probabilities, etc.).
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Exactly! They don't define what a "trader" is and what unsuccessful means.
For example, I might build a shed in my backyard. I buy the lumber, the tools and put it together and it works. Does this make me an engineer? A contractor? What if based on that little bit of success, I set up an account at a bank and call myself a contractor. I blow through my initial capital chasing projects I know little about with no risk and no plan. I'm bankrupt and I go back to making widgets at a factory.
Am I now a failed contractor? A failed engineer? A failed entrepreneur?
This stat is complete garbage, in my opinion. Trading is not a hobby. It isn't something you can sit down and just do. Software vendors and brokers might have you think that (remember those E*Trade Commercials where the kids are all trading...I mean what could be easier?)
Risk Disclaimer: Trading Futures is not suitable for all investors. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Maybe it's not greed. Perhaps it is you not being satisfied with what you perceive to be "less than" or a little on the mediocrity side.
Dissatisfaction can be the impetus for higher achieving. It maybe what helped build western civilization.
One thing that always helps is to be grateful and thankful. Your $300.00 day is a good thing. Perhaps the second day didn't quite have the volatility that the $500.00 day brought.
My wifey and I had to chuckle. We have taken the test a few times over the last 14 years. We keep getting the same results.
To quote the article:
Three personality types?the ENTJ (known for their ability to develop strategies), the INTJ (known for their scientific reasoning), and the ISTJ (the trustee type person)?combined should constitute about 12% of the population. However, at this time these three groups represent 50.1% of our current sample. The NTs constitute 45.6% of our sample, probably because these people are always attempting to improve themselves.
If I recall properly, each of these 3 types make up the smallest percentage of the population.
I am an ENTJ and my beloved is an INTJ. We trade completely different. What an interesting study in human nature.
For those that have never taken the test, you would learn a lot about why you think the way you do.
For me, when I read that the worst possible job for my personality type would be in daycare, I immediately thought "Thank you". I know that I would lose my mind.
Well, back to simplifying and reviewing my strategy.