Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Thanks for posting a simple-to-read 5 minute chart showing the trendlines and support and resistance you consider to be important. I like the way you placed the blue and red ellipses to make the areas of support turning into resistance stand out.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I guess that would depend on your sense of humor. Probably could have said " Old school charting....Ha, Ha, Ha"... but it never occurred to me that the alternating support / resistance role that important price levels often show was a knee slapper. But I admit I could be wrong.
Great trading today glennts! I truly mean you no harm, I was poking fun at your chart being "old school" with its myriad of colors/shapes/lines/indicators/etc versus a chart with plain ole OHLC bars.
A Monthly chart going back 20 years. The Cyan blocks mark each year and show the Yearly Pivots. At this distance above the Daily and Weekly bars it is easy to see the Higher Time Frame swings that represent the economic cycles of the Euro. By averaging together the swing H-H and L - L intervals the result is an estimate of 3.5 yrs for these rotations to play out. Using this broad stroke approach you can develop a rationale for putting funds to work in Ultra Long and Ultra Short Euro ETFs.
This capture of the last 6 yrs shows why the current price action is significant to the larger story.
The circles highlight how the turn of these Multi-Year swings typically play out over a 3 - 4 month period. If you compare this years High with the High made in 2018 you can see they both were made in January. In 2018 this gave an extremely Left-translated Yearly Candle.... what you can get in a retracement inside a larger downtrend. The black 4 period ma can be understood as the Backbone of Up and Down swings.... once it breaks and turns the die is cast. Compare the two white dashed uptrend lines. In 2018 price fell to this line and found support for 2 + Months and then gave it up. The bounce of the past several days is comparable to the June 2018 bounce. Is there a guarantee this behavior will repeat... absolutely not.... however if trading is about probability... where the 6E currently is in time and price is something to consider. Notice inside this year's trading price made a lower swing High of 4 bars... now look to the left of the chart at 2016.... a lower swing High of 4 bars.
If you find these charts useful please leave a comment.
No offense taken. An interesting thing to consider what would the Legends of Trading have accomplished if instead of calling out quotes from a ticker tape to assistants standing in front of a chalkboard, they had available to their analysis what we have today. My Old School comment was a reference to the behavior of support and resistance levels which along with new highs and lows, was about all they had to work with.
Posting this chart again as there were two other comments I neglected to include.
1. If you were to consider the 2005, 2008, 2014 as carving out and H&S pattern then the 2005, 2010 lows would be the Neckline. Price breaks the Neckline support in January of 2016 and in 2018 return to test the underside of the Neckline and finds resistance.
2. From the High of 2008 you see a lower swing high 16 Months later followed by another lower swing high 16 months after that. I call this behavior Half-spanning... where you get the similar magnitude of price rotation as the normal average duration but it plays out in @ half-the time. You can see this increased volatility behavior often down in the 1 min and 5 min charts at the turn of intra-day swings that last 3 - 6 hrs. As you look at this chart imagine the Yearly Blocks as actually being only 60 Min and the 12 Monthly Candles as being 5 min bars and you will see what I mean.
Price has pushed into the target area indicated on the earlier charts and more importantly has encountered the 7/30 downtrend line. A white dashed line marks the level of common body highs of the recent 4 bars and as the MP to the right shows you, this is where the sellers are standing. Currently the overnight lows have been taken out and price is testing 24 Hr support in the form of the 24 Hr Pivot and the 24 Hr ma. Back at the beginning of these post it was mentioned that this intitial push higher would likely extend into a right-translation of this MD rotation and I think we are nearing the end of that push, if not having already found it in the overnight trading. On this chart you can see the white 24 Hr ma has aligned with the supporting uptrend line and this is typical end of move behavior as momentum wains with the emergence of the "other side". I am discounting the quick test yesterday of MD support, explained in earlier posts, and that the next event will a more substantial test of the 1.174 - 1.173 area as the Bears attempt to wrest back control of the Euro.
The bulls will try to hold the line in this 1.17560 area to defend the up swing but I suspect they will fail.
Could be wrong... we shall see.
Good luck be careful.
If this post is helpful please give a thanks. I dislike talking to an empty room.