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Time will tell if yesterday's rally will continue. Price has bounced off of an HVN at 45.40 in the globex and heading for an area around 45.80 that has been the globex POC for the past 4 days.
Hypo 1: if it holds above 45.80 I will play for a continuation to the up side.
Hypo 2: if it bounces off the 45.80 area I will play for more testing to the down side.
Price sits on yesterday's RTH POC after a push down then back up overnight. Though the overnight trend is up, it could go either way from here. Be patient to let it reveal its intention.
Hypo 1: price pushes past the POC to continue to the upside. Enter long on pull back to support
Hypo 2; price reverses direction off the POC. Enter short on pull back to resistance.
Update: end of day. Hypo 2 played out. Had difficulty finding a place to get short on a retracement. Did manage a +10t long after price based up around the 44.00 area.
I am short from 44.91.....this was also last week's VAL on the weekly TPO......some confluence there....So with any luck and follow through, might get a decent size trade out of it today....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The short answer is yes. As you know, there are strategies and there are tactics. Strategically I am getting more confident answering the questions:
where is price trying to go?
what makes it stop and pause, or reverse?
This is where the Globex and RTH profiles have helped a lot.
Tactically I am still trying to work out how to exploit the blueprint with my risk tolerance (around 10 ticks give or take). For this I am using footprint and smaller volume profiles on smaller charts to find entry points on pull backs. I would say that since I focused more on entering on information risk rather than price risk my trade potential has increased, but more importantly, I have been able to get out of losing trades with much less damage, often at BE.
CL is in territory last visited in April. Trend is clearly down, there is thickness on the bid, and it is anybody's guess when it might stop. I'll be playing for shorts until there is a clear indication of a bottom and a desire to move higher on my tiny time frame.
Hypos 1 and 2 both involve retracements to resistance for shorts.
Update: end of day. I didn't get much out of the day but at least I read it right and attempted some trades in the right direction. In all fairness the action was very slow and choppy down. The blue hypo more or less played out today. Not hard to call after price broke and held below Friday's low.