HumbleTrader 

I also want to add that the above stats are for US indices. I also use pinescript to get similar and even more granular details. However, my coding and backtesting skills are improving at a much slower pace than my liking. If any pinescripters are interested in collaboration, I would be thrilled.

I've not written pinescript but I can code pretty much anything so always happy to try to help if you want to go that route, though it seems like you know what you're doing already

Maybe I missed it, but are you using "gap" as (1) "change in RTH open from previous close", or (2) "difference between RTH open and previous High (if gap up) / Low (if gap down)" (with the obvious "gap doesn't exist" if RTH open is within the previous RTH day's range)?

josh 

I've not written pinescript but I can code pretty much anything so always happy to try to help if you want to go that route, though it seems like you know what you're doing already Maybe I missed it, but are you using "gap" as (1) "change in RTH open from previous close", or (2) "difference between RTH open and previous High (if gap up) / Low (if gap down)" (with the obvious "gap doesn't exist" if RTH open is within the previous RTH day's range)?

Thanks Josh. Since I don't have a tech background, the learning curve to code was pretty steep. Lately I'm using chatgpt which looks promising but still needs lot of guidance from me. I will keep you posted and will definitely reach out if I'm stuck.

I use 'gap' as described in point 1. i.e Previous RTH close and today's RTH open. I do use the Y-H/Y-L levels to scale in/out and more like support/resistance, but they are not considered in my gap definition.

Is it worth it?

I have this longstanding fetish to be part of FOMC & NFP moves. Despite huge improvement in my discipline this year, I was still battling to stay away from those 2 news events. It's not like I have an edge. I often have none and even when they work, I get out way earlier than I should. Today is a good example and I have pile of poor trade execution on news days like this.

For the last 2 months, I stayed out of Fed days but succumbed to NFP today. I was short DAX and the premise of 'gap closure' was good. But, instead of taking my loss (and considering a new short after the news) I turned the my position into a boat without a captain and it went right through the NFP hurricane.

I always make sure it's just 1 micro (and occasionally 2) and never mini's, and hence no financial impact but it's still totally unnecessary. I want to come 'clean' and if anyone ever see me trading that 'news' bitch, just punch me in my face.
d

HumbleTrader 

Is it worth it? I have this longstanding fetish to be part of FOMC & NFP moves. Despite huge improvement in my discipline this year, I was still battling to stay away from those 2 news events. It's not like I have an edge. I often have none and even when they work, I get out way earlier than I should. Today is a good example and I have pile of poor trade execution on news days like this. For the last 2 months, I stayed out of Fed days but succumbed to NFP today. I was short DAX and the premise of 'gap closure' was good. But, instead of taking my loss (and considering a new short after the news) I turned the my position into a boat without a captain and it went right through the NFP hurricane. I always make sure it's just 1 micro (and occasionally 2) and never mini's, and hence no financial impact but it's still totally unnecessary. I want to come 'clean' and if anyone ever see me trading that 'news' bitch, just punch me in my face. d

Haha we all have been un that boat, love the transparency

"No one can beat the market"
every losing trader

Choppy and hard to trade

I had a YM short bias and it seemed to work but there was not much follow through below Y-L and price went back to the range and hence I took a small loss and flat now.

I was in green but didn't want to bank partial profits. In fact, I scaled in twice and expected bigger ATR due to NFP volatility. In the end, I gave up the paper profits, which was fine, but also gave up some of my funds, which was not fine.

I like the fact that I'm always thinking of increasing my size when trade goes my way. The major downside of that I'm more vulnerable to have a losing trade even with minor adverse movements. I never liked breakeven stops but I may have to consider for a day like this when I increase my size without the cushion of booked partial profits.
y

HumbleTrader 

Choppy and hard to trade I like the fact that I'm always thinking of increasing my size when trade goes my way. The major downside of that I'm more vulnerable to have a losing trade even with minor adverse movements. I never liked breakeven stops but I may have to consider for a day like this when I increase my size without the cushion of booked partial profits. y

It's a hard call to make in the moment. A trade 'looks' like it's going your way...so you add...and lose almost all your cushion. Then in a moment you are under water and ???? bail for small loss? Hold and HOPE you original plan was correct?
I believe there is no "right" way... context helps (is there evidence of strong one sided day?) but really In think you are onto the key...keep losers small and when you are right and add vigorously your wins far outweigh your losses.

I was not convinced of the long side and only had 45min of RTH time today. 3 strong bars to open but then bar 4 sold hard and went below Open. I got short...added 1 at highs where disappointed longs might be escaping. Price dropped for a second and closed Bar 6 at the highs...they did not escape. I got out unwilling to risk a move higher when i had no time to manage. No problem. Mid sized loss...better than building in and finding out 10 points in the red on a 5 lot I am wrong.

Great trading lately... keep focused on that.

Blue Eagle 

It's a hard call to make in the moment. A trade 'looks' like it's going your way...so you add...and lose almost all your cushion. Then in a moment you are under water and ???? bail for small loss? Hold and HOPE you original plan was correct? I believe there is no "right" way... context helps (is there evidence of strong one sided day?) but really In think you are onto the key...keep losers small and when you are right and add vigorously your wins far outweigh your losses.

Thanks Craig. I agree that there is no 'right' way of managing a failed trade. However, there is A way which feels right to each on of us and I'm trying to figure that one out. I think I will consider separate exit points for my scale-ins so the risk can be kept low.

Yes, context is key. For instance, post-independent day has bullish stats. When Sellers were NOT getting the traction I expected, I should have reduced my shorts and consider adding again only after new lows. Learning never stops in this business.

My stats are pretty good lately. Always thinking about 'how to manage a loser' paradoxically results in more winners.



1

Sometimes Green Day is not good enough

I executed my short bias for YM pretty well, especially my initial patience. I waited for the initial burst by bulls to cool down and then shorted. Though I got paid well, the market was in a mood to give more and I didn't capitalize on that.

My 1st short was at a pretty good location. i.e at the highs but not THE high and I waited for my ema entry signal. Then I scaled in AFTER confirmation i.e more weakness. I took 80 pts profit first and then 100 more. Felt pretty good that I got 60%+ out of the recent ATR of 250 to 300 pts.

Areas for improvement.

1. Though 'gap closure' was not a high probability expectation today in my prep, I should have increased the odds and anticipated it once volume picked up in the down move. I also got out BEFORE my ema exit signal.
2. Sizing was less than ideal. It was a counter-trend trade to begin with and some caution was warranted. Hence it was reasonable to scale in once only, but I should have been a bit more aggressive below vwap after weakness. Will consider adding this to my trading 'drills'.




Screenshot 2024-07-08 at 9.05.22 PM

My primary goal these days is to improve my exit efficiency.

Though yesterday was profitable and even after achieving my daily goal, I would only give B- grade because of how much I left on the table.

This visual illustration from tradervue is a great way to motivate me and hang on to my winner.

a

Pressing winners is becoming a habit

Though it's not a spectaular win for my shorts today, the goal/drill was to reach my max size of 4 quickly without risking much. P&L is secondary, for now.

I was happy with my scaling-in but my exits were sloppy and far from ideal. However, I will fix that later and currently focusing more on 'ramping up the size'. I'm in a way glad that YM reversed as it helped me focus more on risk reduction rather than profits.


1