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I just wanted you to see the main chart showing the major confluence zone. I should have posted this along with the 4 hour chart...Couldn't ask for a more perfect spot for a pivot...
We now stand here, after the Syria threat has pushed this market $8 higher in the last 2 days:
We are sitting around $112 tonight at this moment. The sweet spot for a short is still in the $111 to $120 region IMO, with the preferred area being closer to $115, given the momentum right now. Sometimes these things reverse on a dime, so a very aggressive short could be taken right now. But personally I would still wait. This is a potentially huge breakout and has strong momentum up, so it's not something I would step into yet.
..... however it is the top of the trading range that has emerged after the "Big Up Big Down" move and like all trading ranges this will behave in a manner to preserve itself.
A double top bear flag also presents itself now after the breakout and it seems right to short right away, while watching the chart carefully.
Also a bull trendline has been broken - to me the "huge breakout" reeks of climactic exhaustion i.e. the market would be hard pressed to find buyers in this zone and the correct way seems down atleast to retest 86. From there a fresh call would have to be taken.
In that light, I find Russia's role in the "Syria issue" interesting. Clearly oil exporting countries want higher prices, but one may be more motivated (desperate perhaps) to make it happen.
Isnt it better to short either the current or front month CL than 6 months out and rollover each expiration. You could catch a decent dip like this last week from 108 to 102--now it retraces to possibly 105.60 area and reload.
I have not used ninjatrader before so I am not familiar with the signals it offers. The signal lines in the chart you have above looks like moving averages, but could I ask exactly what they are? Thanks.
Exported using NT 7.0.1000.15
This is a simple implementation of the trigger lines which can be used as a trend filter. The trigger lines are composed of a linear regression indicator (LinReg) and a signal line, which is calculated as the exponential …