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I start this thread to discipline myself
The problem is, I often skip to do my homework before the open, and nearly always miss to study my trades at the end of the day.
I studied stocks, ETFs, CFDs, options, and I finally fell in love with the oil futures, so I'm gonna post my thoughts around pit open (9.00) and I comment my trades at the end of the day.
I'm using market profile and volume profile for S/R zones, sometimes experiencing with some indicators, but until now, I couldn't find any, which works.
I try to keep trading and triggers as simple as I can.
Right now, I'm not profitable, but my goal is making 3.000/month with trading maximum 5 CL contracts.
I write the thread for myself, but if it's useful for somebody, the better. I do welcome advice and comments, thanks.
Bias for the day: slightly bearish
Why: Crude is below a main support on the monthly chart. Overnight it stayed in a channel I set up yesterday, and before open it headed down, so it can’t be that strong. I’d like to see it approaches 90.41., we’ll see.
Long term: I’m bearish for longer term, but I think it can bounce around for a while, before it heads lower. If the bulls come in, I’m gonna be bullish above 107.
.. I had many trade ideas today, but as usual, I pulled the trigger on the wrong ones as well
So the completed trades are:
Trade 1:
Time: 9:44
Sell 5 @ 91.36
Buy 5 @ 91.41 P&L w. commissions: -273.20
The trade idea was that it’s gonna head down again, after it bounces back from the open (91.41). It did, but after I was stopped out.
Conclusion: trade idea was good, trade location wasn’t.
Trade 2:
Time: 10:22
Sell 5 @ 91.41
Buy 2 @ 91.35
Buy 3 @ 91.42
P&L w. commissions: 56.8
Although it was profitable, it was a bad trade. I have a rule that I don’t trade before the crude inventories report, but I couldn’t resist the strech from the ONL to the pivot and VWAP. As soon I remembered my own rule, I closed the position
Conclusion: trade idea was good, but against my own rules.
Trade 3:
Time: 10:40
Sell 5 @ 91.98
Buy 2 @ 91.92
Buy 2 @ 91.86
Buy 1 @ 91.29
P&L w. commissions: 1026.8
It was very risky, after the report.
BUT: - it ran so much, it was so streched
- just pierced my resistance level
- there was a round number
- it came back to 92 with a double top-like formation on 333tk
Conclusion: counter momentum sometimes pays I expected 20-30 ticks, that’s why I scaled out 4 early. The 1 I left in, paid nicely. It was a trader’s dream..
So yesterday I was slightly bearish, which paid off in the first half of the day.
After the report the 92.1-92.3 resistance nicely worked, it even went back to the ONL. In the second half, howewer, after moving in the 91.3-91.7 area, the bulls came in, and they remained in power till the end of the day.
Bias for the day: neutral, but waiting for the bears
From yesterday afternoon the bulls came in. Overnight it went down to the 92.6-93.07 area, then bought again. If after the open it breaks through 93.55, it can rally to the 94 area. If it heads down below 92.52, the bears in charge, and the next support is in the 92.20-92.35 area.
Trade 0:
Khmm.. Well, a would-be trade, unfortunately. But I have to write down everything, so: the order was on my screen, and I was so satisfied when it broke down, but why couldn’t I see the position size? Because I forgot to transmit the order, that’s why. I was unfocused. So lame.
Time: 9:07
Sell 5 @ 93.19
Why: I could see the bears came in, and it tried to break through 93.27-93.51 3 times without success.
Conclusion: trade idea was good, trade location was good, I was unfocused.
Trade 1:
Time: 11:27
Sell 5 @ 92.99
Buy 5 @ 93.04 P&L w. commissions: -273.2
It was a mediocre trade idea. It was after a 30 tick stretch, at a round number. Didn’t work out.
Conclusion: I should pull a trigger only when the trade shouts in my face.
Trade 2:
Time: 12:00
Sell 5 @ 92.96
Buy 5 @ 93.01
P&L w. commissions: -273.2
Now this was a BAD idea. I fell in love with the idea of breaking down 93, well, it didn’t.
Conclusion: I have to concentrate more, and shouldn’t let the „I’m gonna win back the losers” feeling rule on me.
Trade 3:
Time: 12:13
Sell 5 @ 93.18
Buy 2 @ 93.14
Buy 3 @ 93.17
P&L w. commissions: 86,8
The trade idea was good, based on 333tk chart and volume imbalance. I scaled out at the right time, after the scaling it turned back.
After all, I let my feelings rule the day. Started with a missed good trade, I lost, and became frustrated, so I entered a bad trade and lost again. After two losses, I failed to pull the trigger on really good trades, afraid of losing again. I have to grow some steel balls.
I wrote:
"Bias for the day: neutral, but waiting for the bears
From yesterday afternoon the bulls came in. Overnight it went down to the 92.6-93.07 area, then bought again. If after the open it breaks through 93.55, it can rally to the 94 area. If it heads down below 92.52, the bears in charge, and the next support is in the 92.20-92.35 area."
The S/R zones worked pretty well: it headed down to the 92.20-92.35 area, but there the bulls came back, and pushed it back to the 93.27-93.51 resistance area, where it was turned back by the bears again.