Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
- Stopped out of Long trade in Mini Gold for a loss
- Stopped out of Long trade in Coffee for a gain
A crazy end to the week after Britain voted to leave the EU. My plan was to head into the vote with minimal risk. Unfortunately, I didn’t follow this plan very well and my trade management and execution this week was extremely poor resulting in unnecessary losses.
Gold was always going to be largely impacted by the vote. I hung onto the trade for too long and really should have exited while the trade was showing a profit last week or at breakeven at worst earlier this week. Then to make matters worse, I allowed the trade to be stopped out only hours before the vote and then see prices surge a short time later. While it is frustrating to see markets reverse after being stopped out I am more disappointed with even being in the trade so close to the vote and allowing a winning trade to become a losing trade.
Coffee was unlikely to be majorly affected by the BREXIT vote but all markets were likely to be affected in some way in the short term. I tightened my Stop on the position leading into Friday to reduce risk but this was the wrong decision. I should have exited the position on the close on Thursday and locked in the open profit and removed all risk from the market volatility associated with the vote. Given that Coffee was not trading during the vote opened up the possibility of a significant gap on the open and I should not have been in a position to be impacted by such an event. This is another example of poor trade management that caused unnecessary losses this week.
The market reactions to the vote have created a number of opportunities with commodities across the board falling sharply on Friday. However, the volatility experienced on Friday and the likelihood of continued volatility in the short term mean it is unlikely that I will be rushing into many positions. There are 2 markets in particular that held up very well at the close on Friday compared to the rest of the market. These markets are Sugar and Natural Gas. The resilience of these markets may be telling and for this reason these two markets will be my main focus for now.
With no open positions at the end of the week and so many markets making interesting moves I have tweaked the format a little bit this week.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Corn this week highlighted the risks involved with trading a weather market as prices collapsed and wiped out most of the recent run up in a couple of sessions. The price action on Friday was not as negative with Corn finishing well off the lows and closing the week near the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent run up.
ZS – New Crop Soybeans
Soybeans were lower in 4 out the 5 sessions this week with heavy selling on Friday following BREXIT. Prices traded down to the 40 SMA on Friday and held this level. This is the first intersection with the 40 SMA since the uptrend began and may be a good area to get Long.
ZW – New Crop Wheat
Wheat fell away sharply from the 200 SMA this week but prices finished well off the lows on Friday and held at the March lows.
KC – Coffee
Coffee was well supported at the March highs during the week but fell sharply through this level on Friday after BREXIT. No real damage has been made to the recent uptrend at this stage. If prices fall further down to the 20 SMA or even better the 40 SMA I may look at re-entering this trade.
CT – December Cotton
Cotton continued to struggle at the 161.8% extension of the minor range falling sharply from this level on Tuesday before bouncing straight back to this level on Thursday. Prices were lower on Friday after BREXIT but finished off the lows. If prices continue to fall down to the 40 SMA it might be a good area to get Long.
SB – Sugar
Sugar was lower for most of the week and gapped sharply lower on Friday after BREXIT. Prices quickly found support after the break and rallied to close the day higher back at the 20 SMA. The strength shown by Sugar on Friday appears to be very positive and I’ll be looking for a good spot to re-enter this trade.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs were sharply lower this week trading back down to re-test the boundary line of the triangle at 84. The quarterly hogs and pigs report released after the close on Friday appears to be slightly bearish which may impact trading on Monday but otherwise this maybe a good spot to buy.
Gold continued lower for most of the week before rallying sharply after BREXIT trading up towards the 161.8% extension of the recent range and posting new highs in the recent uptrend. Prices finished well off the highs on Friday and any further retrace down to the $1,290 - $1,300 level may present a good opportunity to get Long as Gold is likely to continue to be well supported given the uncertainty in markets at present.
HG – Copper
Copper rallied up to the 200 SMA during the week before falling sharply from this level on Friday after BREXIT. Prices finished off the lows on Friday holding above the 40 SMA.
NG - Natural Gas
Natural Gas broke through the 200 SMA during the week and held above this level to close out the week. Natural Gas held up surprising well on Friday given BREXIT and the fall seen in most commodities. I tried to buy this market on Friday but prices just didn’t go low enough to trigger my order. I will continue to look for an entry next week.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil was sharply lower on Friday after BREXIT but held above the 200 SMA. Oil may be a good buy around the 200 SMA.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was lower early in the week but held the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Prices surged higher on Friday after BREXIT rallying up to the 200 SMA which provided some resistance. If prices can surpass the 98 level the US Dollar might be a good buy.
6E – Euro
The Euro was sharply lower on Friday after BREXIT but bounced from the 61.8% retracement level to finish the day well off the lows and hold near the 200 SMA. I am neutral where the Euro is concerned at present.
The S&P was sharply lower on Friday after BREXIT but held at the rising 200 SMA. In contrast, the Nasdaq broke sharply lower through the 200 SMA. Perhaps a long S&P/short Nasdaq trade may be a good option.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes were sharply higher on Friday after BREXIT but finished well off the highs to close below the February highs.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold was higher today but closed off the day’s highs posting a candle with an upper shadow.
KC – Coffee
Coffee rose strongly again today posting another bullish full bodied candle and closing in on the early June reversal high.
SB – Sugar
Sugar surged higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing in on the 261.8% extension.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas rallied strongly today up to the January highs but ran into resistance at this point and retraced most of the day’s gains to post a candle with a long upper shadow.
HG – Copper
Copper re-tested the 200 SMA during the overnight session but bounced from this level to finish the day higher.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold continued to consolidate the recent surge higher trading in a small range and finishing the day slightly higher.
KC – Coffee
Coffee traded in a large range today both higher and lower but finished the day higher.
SB – Sugar
Sugar reversed lower today posting a bearish full bodied candle.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas rallied strongly again today after a bullish storage report posting a bullish full bodied candle.
HG – Copper
Copper traded down towards the 200 SMA again today but bounced from this level to finish the day higher at the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range.
I have been sitting on the sidelines since Brexit watching for opportunities.
The opportunities I am currently watching are below.
ZS – Soybeans
New crop Soybeans broke sharply lower this week. If prices trade back down to the 200 SMA I may enter Long position or alternatively should prices find a bottom above the 200 SMA and resume the uptrend I may enter a Long position on a successful break of the 61.8% retracement of the corrective range.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs broke sharply lower this week breaking the 200 SMA and the bottom of the wedge. If prices also break the 61.8% retracement mark I may Short Hogs.
KC – Coffee
Coffee was sharply lower early in the week but held at the 20 SMA. I might be willing to enter a Long position should prices correct back to the 40 SMA.
HG – Copper
Copper broke back down through the 200 SMA during the week but is holding at the short term moving averages. If Copper can break the 200 SMA with impulsiveness I may enter a Long position.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas was sharply lower at the start of the week but held at the 20 SMA. If prices can retrace further towards the 200 SMA or the 40 SMA I may be willing to enter a Long position. Alternatively a resumption of the uptrend and surpassing of the 61.8% retracement of the minor corrective range at $2.88 may also be an opportunity to enter a Long position.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar rose this week but has been unable to surpass the 200 SMA. If the US Dollar can break the 200 SMA I may enter a Long position. Ideally I would want to see price surpass the 61.8% retracement level at 97.36 to confirm a bullish break.
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.7780
Risk: $0.8820 risking $560
Target: $0.60
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices penetrated the 200 SMA after a minor uptrend and are approaching penetration of the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend.
Fundamental: Herd expansion with ample supply is pushing prices down.
Daily Comment: Prices were lower today trading down towards the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend but bounced from this level to finish the day practically unchanged. I entered half the position in anticipation of the break and will enter the second half if this level is broken.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
HG – Copper
Copper was higher today trading back up to the 200 SMA again.
NG – Natural Gas
Gas prices fell sharply today back down to recent lows.
DX – US Dollar Index
The Dollar poled up above the 200 SMA during the session but was unable to close above this level.
