Below are my comments on other markets of note.

CL – Crude Oil

Crude Oil continued its bearish momentum this week trading down through the recent lows and appears destined for the 161.8% extension at $39.40.



GC – Gold

Gold dipped below the 200 SMA early in the week but quickly regained the ground above this level and is now sandwiched between all of the moving averages.



DX – US Dollar Index

The US Dollar was higher early in the week before falling to finish the week only slightly higher.



ES – S&P 500

The S&P 500 was higher early in the week before finding resistance at the 161.8% extension level and falling back to the 20 SMA.



ZN – 10 Year Note

The Notes were mostly sideways this week continuing to find support at the 20 SMA.

Trades for the week:

- Entered a short position in the Euro-Schatz

Below are my comments on my open positions.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863

Weekly Comment: The Euro was sharply higher on Tuesday after hawkish comments from the ECB breaking out to new highs.



SIL – Silver (1,000)

Trade: Short 1 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.49
Stop: 16.84 Risking $350
Target: 15.02

Weekly Comment: Silver attempted to surpass the 61.8% retracement level during the week but failed and finished the week back below this level. I was trying to roll this position late in the week but wasn’t able to get a fill with the spread widening significantly.



ZC – Corn

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62

Weekly Comment: Corn prices held above last week’s lows early in the week before rallying sharply to finish the week back above the 200 SMA on weather concerns and lower planted acres.



M6C – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.77

Weekly Comment: The Loonie rallied sharply this week after hawkish comments from the central bank breaking out to new highs.



RC – Robusta Coffee

Trade: Short 1 contract of July Robusta Coffee
Entry Price: $2025
Stop: $2087 risking $620
Target: $1805

Weekly Comment: Robusta was sideways early in the week before breaking higher on Thursday. Prices attempted to trade above the 200 SMA again on Friday but was unable to close above this level. If Robusta doesn’t fall again from this level I will be exiting on Monday.



GBS – Euro-Schatz

Trade: Short 1 contract of September Euro-Schatz
Entry Price: 111.91
Stop: 112.20 risking $290
Target: 110.95

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices traded down through the 200 SMA after a long uptrend.

Fundamental: The ECB signalled a normalisation of stimulus measures may soon be appropriate with economic conditions in Europe improving.

Weekly Comment: The Schatz traded down through the 200 SMA on Tuesday after hawkish comments from the ECB. I had an order back towards the midpoint of Tuesday’s candle which was filled on Wednesday.

Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

6B – British Pound

The Pound rallied strongly this week closing the gap from the election but just couldn’t close above the recent highs at the end of the week. I may look to re-enter this position on any weakness early next week.



ZW – Wheat

Wheat pulled back to the 200 SMA early in the week and bounced strongly from this level trading sharply higher on Thursday and Friday to close at new highs.



HE – Lean Hogs

Lean Hogs held above recent lows early in the week before breaking out on Friday to new highs. I may look to enter a position on any weakness.



HG – Copper

Copper was higher each day this week but found resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range on Thursday and Friday. If prices can surpass this level I may look at entering a position.



GBL - Bund

The Bund traded down through the 200 SMA on Thursday. I had an order back towards the midpoint of Thursday’s candle but missed the day’s high by a couple of ticks before it turned back down to finish the day slightly lower.



PSI-20 - Portugal

The Portuguese stock market traded down to the 50 SMA for the first time since it crossed the 200 SMA late last week. I tried to enter a position AT THE 50 SMA in the corresponding ETF PGAL but it did not trade low enough to trigger an entry. With the wide bodied bar on Thursday below the 50 SMA I have removed my order for now.

Below are my comments on other markets of note.

CL – Crude Oil

Crude Oil bounced back this week rallying sharply on Wednesday and Friday to regain the ground back above the 20 SMA.



GC – Gold

Gold traded in a tight range this week holding around the 200 SMA.



DX – US Dollar Index

The US Dollar was sharply lower on Tuesday and continued lower for the remainder of the week trading down through the 61.8% retracement level and posting new lows. If the break is credible the target may be down near 84.



ES – S&P 500

The S&P 500 tested the 50 SMA on Thursday but held above this level again.



ZN – 10 Year Note

The Notes were sharply lower this week but remain above the 200 SMA. If prices trade down through this level I may look at entering a short position.

Below is my updated tracking sheet for June with the key metrics I am currently following.







More of the same in June with my drawdown continuing and reaching new lows during the month. A late surge in the last week of June undid some of the damage and is hopefully a sign of better things to come next month.

Over the last few weeks I have been reviewing my trading year in detail in an attempt to learn the things that are working well and any areas that could be improved. I like to analyse my trading year in two ways:

1. Look for the best expressions of each type of trade signal in my trading system across each market that I follow and compare that to my actual trading for the year.

2. Collate detailed statistics about my trading and analyse these statistics in an attempt to ascertain any patterns within my trading that could be improved.

Some of my findings for this year are outlined below.

Overall it was a fairly solid year with a return of 38% and a positive expectancy with an average win of 4.5R and an average loss of 1.4R. However, on a risk adjusted basis the returns don’t look as good with a monthly gain-to-pain ratio of only 0.2 and a max drawdown of 49% experienced during the year.

The year was a tale of two halves as shown by my closed trade NAV and monthly ROR charts below. The first half of the year saw some great returns especially around the US election which created some strong volatility and trends and I was lucky enough to capture a few good ones. The second half of the year was much tougher with many false break outs and a lack of strong trends leading to many whipsaw losses.







The downtrend began in December with one big losing trade where FOMO kicked in and risk management went out the window. This trade was a major disappointment but to only have one of these trades in the year is a major improvement from previous years. The goal for next year is to eradicate all of these types of trades. In addition to the one big loss I had 3 other trades of -2R with 2 of these trades in November. This shows that my discipline waned slightly during a period of strong performance. It is so easy to become more flippant with risk when you are performing strongly and the profits are flowing as you do not feel the pain as much but then you wish you still had some of those profits when things get more difficult and you struggle to find a winner. This is something I will need to be more aware of during my next period of strong performance to ensure it does not happen again.



From January onwards my poor performance was more do with difficult trading conditions than mistakes. I was also a bit unlucky missing two major moves in Sugar and Cattle. The positive side is that I did try and trade both of those trends but unfortunately was just not able to get set on these occasions. To help improve the instances where I’m not able to get set within my risk parameters I will look to trade smaller futures contracts where available, ETFs or options moving forward so that I can still enter a small position within my risk parameters.

My win/loss rate is shown in the chart below. The win rate is not particularly high but its high enough to make money with a trend following system. I would like to see my win rate improve into the 30’s or 40’s.



A break down of my trades for the year by sector shows that my trading was heavily weighted towards agriculture products with more than half my trades in the grains, livestock and soft commodities.



Looking back its clear that I focus on these markets too much and take too many trades in these markets. The chances of strong trends occurring in these markets as often as I trade them are unlikely meaning that I am taking too many trades of a lower quality which adds to my losing trade %.

My trading was also heavily weighted to the long side this year.



This is not much of a surprise given how low most commodities are but I have probably been guilty of rushing into too many long trades thinking that a major bottom may be in place and the start of a major rally may be coming. These types of major bottoms generally take a long time to form with a number of false starts that lead to whipsaw losses. I would like to see a number of these whipsaw losses move from losses to scratch trades. I intend to try and accomplish this by entering into trends a little bit earlier before the move has been exhausted to give a little bit more room to scratch the trade if it proves to be a false break.

The major change for the upcoming year is that I will be significantly increasing the number of markets I follow by adding a number of new currencies, stock market indices and fixed income markets through futures where possible or ETF’s. Hopefully this will provide increased opportunities and diversification to improve my win rate and risk adjusted returns.

I have also been doing a lot of work collecting data on the average volume, average volatility and notional values of the markets I trade with a view to filtering the instruments I trade based on their suitability to my account size using these metrics. I intend to limit my futures trading to the smaller and/or less volatile contracts and trade the others with options or ETFs. This should allow me to reduce my average risk per trade below 2% which was too high last year at around 3% of capital and will also hopefully assist with reducing the severity of any drawdowns.

I also plan to start keeping statistics on my stops in an attempt to determine whether hard stops in the market intra-day or close only stops are the most effective method for controlling risk but giving the trade enough room to run. I had a number of incidences of my stop levels being triggered intra-day but not a closing basis leading me to switch to close only stops towards the end of last year. The major problem with close only stops is that it can often increase your average loss and allows you to easily override the stop. Hopefully having some data about how often it happens, how often the trend continues in my favour, etc will help in making a decision as to which method is most suitable for my trading system.

Trades for the week:

- Rolled my short position in Silver from July to September
- Exited my short position in Robusta Coffee

Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863

Weekly Comment: The Euro drifted lower early in the week before bouncing back strongly on Thursday to finish the week only slightly lower.



SIL – Silver (1,000)

Trade: Short 1 contracts of September Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.35
Stop: 16.35 Risking $0
Target: 14.06

Weekly Comment: Silver was sharply lower on Tuesday. I used this weakness to exit the July contract at breakeven and move into the September contract. Prices continued lower later in the week building further bearish momentum. Interesting to see the flash crash spike low has been adjusted on my charts today.



ZC – Corn

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62

Weekly Comment: Corn bounced back strongly this week as a weather market takes hold with volatility increasing significantly. If the weather stays warm for the next couple of weeks prices could go much higher but if there is any sign of rain the market is likely to crash back down to the bottom of the range. I’ll be monitoring the weather closely with this trade.



MCD – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.77

Weekly Comment: The Loonie continued its upward momentum this week with a strong rally on Friday to close at new highs for the move.



RC – Robusta Coffee

Trade: Short 1 contract of July Robusta Coffee
Entry Price: $2025
Exit Price: $2173

Weekly Comment: Robusta continued to hold around the 200 SMA early in the week and I exited my position as it was time to roll out of the July contract. Prices fell back below the 200 SMA on Friday posting a bearish full bodied candle and I am contemplating rolling into the September contract next week.



FGBS – German Schatz

Trade: Short 1 contract of September Schatz
Entry Price: 111.91
Stop: 112.20 risking $290
Target: 110.95

Weekly Comment: The Schatz were unable to break down through the 61.8% retracement level this week despite the strong move to the downside in the Bund. I may look to add to the position if prices trade back up near the 200 SMA.

Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

Soybean Meal

Soybean Meal surpassed the 200 SMA which has started to turn back up after a six month downtrend. I am contemplating a long position but I am unsure whether I want to increase my exposure to the weather market in the grains.



6B – British Pound

The Pound failed near the recent highs again this week trading back down to the 50 SMA. I may look to enter a long position if prices pull buck towards the 200 SMA or if prices break out above the recent highs.



6L – Brazilian Real

The Real continues to hover around the 61.8% retracement level. If prices bounce up towards the 50 SMA I may look at entering a short position.



6Z – South African Rand

The Rand traded down below the 200 SMA on Thursday after talks about the government nationalising the central bank. If prices can break the 200 SMA I may look at taking a short position. Ideally I’d like to see some sideways prices action to flatten the 200 SMA before a break.



ZN – 10 Year Note

The US 10 Year Notes were lower this week trading back down below the 100 and 200 SMA’s. I am contemplating re-establishing a short position.



FGBL – German Bund

The German 10 year Bund was sideways early in the week and could not rally high enough to trigger my entry from last week. Prices were sharply lower on Thursday trading down through the 61.8% retracement level. I now have an order near the midpoint of Thursday’s candle to enter a short position.



R – UK Long Gilt

The UK 10 year Gilts were lower this week trading down to the 200 SMA which is in the process of turning over. If prices can break this level I may look at entering a short position.



FOAT – French OAT’s

The French 10 year OAT’s were lower this week trading down to the 200 SMA which is already falling. If prices can break this level I may look at entering a short position.



FBTP – Long Term Italian BTP

The Italian 10 year BTP’s were lower this week trading down through the falling 200 SMA. I am contemplating entering a short position next week.



PSI-20 - Portugal

The Portuguese stock market continued to trade within the recent range this week but remains below the 50 SMA. I will need to see prices regain the ground above the 50 SMA before contemplating a long position.



TSE 60 – Canada

The Canadian stock market traded down through the 200 SMA this week after a 14 month rally. If prices can break this level with impulsiveness I may look at entering a short position.

Trades for the week:

- Entered and stopped out of a long position in Mini Soybeans
- Entered a short position in the Brazilian Real

Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863

Weekly Comment: The Euro continued higher this week making new highs on Tuesday and finishing the week at a new high close for the move.



SIL – Silver (1,000)

Trade: Short 1 contracts of September Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.35
Stop: 16.35 Risking $0
Target: 14.06

Weekly Comment: Silver made new lows on Monday but finished the day slightly higher posting a candle with a long lower shadow. Prices pushed higher from there finishing the week back up near the May lows.



ZC – Corn

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62

Weekly Comment: Volatility continued in the Corn market this week with prices gapping up higher on Monday before falling sharply on Wednesday and Thursday after a bearish USDA report and some rain moving into the weather reports. If the rain remains in the forecast early next week it will be time to move on from this position.



MCD – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.77

Weekly Comment: The Loonie broke out sharply to the upside on Wednesday after the BOC raised interest rates for the first time in 7 years and continued higher on Friday to finish the week at new highs.



GBS – German Schatz

Trade: Short 1 contract of September Schatz
Entry Price: 111.91
Stop: 112.03 risking $120
Target: 110.95

Weekly Comment: The Schatz were higher this week trading back up to the 200 SMA. I had an order to add to the position on Friday at the high of the day but couldn’t get filled.



YK - Soybean

Trade: Long 1 contract of November Mini Soybean
Entry Price: $10.39
Stop: $9.945 risking $445
Exit Price: $9.945
Result: -1R

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA which was in the process of turning up.

Fundamental: Dry weather is raising concern about crop yields.

Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA and below the low of Friday’s candle.

Weekly Comment: Soybean gapped above the 200 SMA on Monday after forecasts for continued dry temperatures. Whilst I was reluctant to add any more risk in a weather market I decided to take a small position using the mini contract to gain some exposure. Prices were sharply lower on Thursday with forecasts predicting some rain and I exited the position.



6L – Brazilian Real

Trade: Short 1 contract of August Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.3059
Stop: $0.3122 risking $630

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices intersected with the 50 SMA for the first time since it crossed down through the 200 SMA.

Fundamental: A political corruption scandal has been driving prices lower.

Reasons for Stop Placement: Above the 200 SMA and the spike high in early June.

Weekly Comment: The Real traded up to the 50 SMA on Tuesday where I entered a short position. Prices continued higher for the remainder of the week triggering an exit with the close on Friday. I will exit the position on Monday.

Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

RC – Robusta Coffee

Robusta continued lower early in the week before trading back up to the 200 SMA. An indecisive candle was posted at the 200 SMA on Friday and I may look at re-entering a short position early next week.



6B – British Pound

The Pound rallied late in the week breaking out strongly on Friday to close at new highs. I may take a small long position next week.



6Z – South African Rand

The Rand broke down through the 200 SMA on Tuesday but the price action was not impulsive enough to take a position. Prices immediately bounced back above the 200 SMA on Wednesday trading back up to the 50 SMA.



6S – Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc has traded back down towards the 50 SMA for the first time since it broke up through the 50 SMA. I may look at taking a long position should prices trade down to this level.



ZN – 10 Year Note

The US 10 Year Notes traded back up above the 200 SMA on Wednesday after Yellen’s dovish testimony.



FGBL – German Bund

The German 10 year Bund was higher this week but was unable to close above the 61.8% retracement level.



R – UK Long Gilt

The UK 10 year Gilts was sideways this week and remains above the 200 SMA.



FOAT – French OAT’s

The French 10 year OAT’s bounced from the 200 SMA and remain above this level.



FBTP – Long Term Italian BTP

The Italian 10 year BTP’s traded back above the 200 SMA early in the week and finished the week above this level.



PSI-20 - Portugal

The Portuguese stock market rallied strongly on Thursday to close back above the 50 SMA. I didn’t have time on Friday to enter a long position in PGAL but will look to establish a position on Monday.



TSE 60 – Canada

The Canadian stock market hovered around the 200 SMA this week and has not yet broken down through this level.