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Very low range day today, there was only one setup which fit my plan that would've been profitable, and I took the wrong one! One trade, one loss today.
First trade opportunity - Passed
Market moved a couple of pts fast, but not enough signs for my setup
Glad I passed because I would've lost this setup within 20 seconds
Second trade opportunity - Passed
Short @ 4830 around open
Some bearish signs were there, and sort of looked like exhaustion of 24hr move
Not good enough signs to enter though
Would've been a loss
Third trade opportunity - Passed
First setup alarm was hit ~ 4833 ON High
Signs were just not there
I really wanted to short this, I felt super bearish and wanted to be in a trade really bad. I had to consciously stop myself
Would've been a loss
Fourth trade opportunity - Passed
Same setup hit again ~4833 ON High
Again the signs weren't there
Essentially same trade as last time, and I had to pass up on it
Would've been a loss
Fifth trade opportunity - Taken
The alarm hit and I was deciding between the long break-out or the short reversal trade.
I didn't see enough signs for a reversal so I went with a pre break-out trade entry.
About 45 seconds into the trade I felt very nervous about it and not as confident anymore.
The signs that I initially saw that were bullish were still there, but they just weren't strong enough to assume a big move up.
If I wasn't in the trade, I wouldn't have entered, but I just got myself into the trade a minute ago :Sarcastic:
Trade Grade - OK
It was part of the plan
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
0 FOMO trades - I'm not sure if I passed or failed on this to be honest. The trade entry didn't feel like FOMO at all, but I'm not sure why I didn't exit the trade when the signs were there, was I emotional? was I FOMOing? Was I still more sure about a break-out than a reversal? I honestly don't know. I feel my mind was clouded with nervousness to truly make a good decision.
0 Emotional trades - I'm not sure if I passed or failed on this to be honest. The trade entry didn't feel like FOMO at all, but I'm not sure why I didn't exit the trade when the signs were there, was I emotional? was I FOMOing? Was I still more sure about a break-out than a reversal? I honestly don't know. I feel my mind was clouded with nervousness to truly make a good decision.
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max- Passed
Abide by your new trade management standard- Passed
Do not get greedy with any of your trades- Passed
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Jobless claims came in slightly worse than expected
Philadelphia fed business survey came out a bit better than expected, but within consensus range
Draghi's talking right now
Existing home sales @ 10
Leading indicators @ 10
Setups I'll take today
~4880
LF Short
You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
Stop behind 4880 is a must
Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4861 stretch
If we had a trend bull day getting us here, don't take unless it's near the end of the day, unless signs are very very strong
If you haven't taken many setups yet, you might be tempted to take a break-out trade if we pass this - do not do this as 4890 and 4900 are very strong areas - you can take those setups instead
~4860
LF Long
You are looking for a break-out trade here
The 50 zone should've been shattered
There's little sign of slowing at ~4855, and 4860 is offering little resistance
Stop behind 4855 is ideal
Target ~4874 safe, ~4878 stretch
The market must be strongly bullish from the open to take this setup
Be prepared to pass up on this setup
~4860
LF Short
You are looking for strong signs of aggressive selling
Strong exhaustion signs could be good enough to enter this trade
Ideally look for signs that higher time frame players are stepping in
Ideal stop is behind 4865, but could be very hard to get
Target ~ 4843, but watch the ~50 area for signs that you just took a pullback
Ask yourself - are you confident that the current trend is now bear?
~4840
LF Short
You are looking for strong signs of a reversal
Exhaustion is not good enough to enter this trade
You want to see higher volume
Stop needs t be behind 4845 area
Safe target is ~4826 and stretch target is ~4817
You must watch the 4830 and 4825 area very closely for any signs of strong buying
Be prepared to pass up on this setup
~4840
LF Long
You are looking for a break out trade
You want to see some strong profiles that resemble a bull trend day
You want to see high volume and sell orders being filled without any issues
Stop behind 4838 is ideal
Safe target is ~4853, stretch target is 4858
You must watch the 50 area closely for any signs of reversal - be prepared to exit if signs of reversal are strong
4840 has held strongly these last 2 days, so be careful about taking a preemptive break-out trade after hitting the 4834 area
Be prepared to pass up on this setup
~4825
Price balanced ~ this area during Draghi announcement, so take extra caution
LF Short
Look for signs that the market doesn't want to go any higher
Stop behind 4830 is ideal
Target 4811 is safe, 4803 is stretch
Be very careful about taking this setup, SPECIALLY in the morning
~4825
LF Long
You want to see some very strong signs from the open
You want to see strong bull profiles
You want to see higher volume
Stop behind 4820 is ideal
Safe target is ~14 pts
Stretch target is ~4838
Be very careful about taking this setup, SPECIALLY in the morning
~Open
LF Long or short
This is going to be a big test to your psychology as this is more flexible than this setup has been in the past
Do not be eager to take this
Only take this if you see some very strong signs that the market wants to go one way and sees little resistance
You want to see strong profiles
It's okay to pass up on this, there'll be many more opportunities today to trade
~4810 (PD ON Low)
LF Long
You are looking for signs of reversal
You want to see strong volume
Ideally, you'd want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy - but don't expect it if volume / range for the day are low
Exhaustion isn't good enough to enter this
Stop behind 4809.50 is a must
Safe target is ~4824, stretch target is ~4831
Do not get greedy on this
Be prepared to pass up this setup as ~4800 should be stronger
~4800
LF Short
You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend
You don't want to see anything slowing things down
~4810 zone should've been shattered
You might see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when you enter
You need to see higher time frame players stepping in to drive the market down
If volume is low, then be extra careful
Be prepared to pass up on this
~4800
LF Long
You are looking for signs of reversal
You want to see strong volume
You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
Exhaustion isn't good enough to enter this
Stop behind 4796 is ideal
Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is ~4824
Don't get too greedy with this
~4780
LF Long
You want to see some strong buying here
Exhaustion might be good enough to enter
The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
1 Pre-trade taken today and 2 RTH trades
Technically 2 wins but 1 was like a 1 pt profit so I consider those as break-even trades lol
First trade was around the Draghi news, and honestly it was an emotional trade
I had a good entry for a break-down and a good stop, but it was an emotional trade, and I didn't feel comfortable keeping it for longer.
I stuck my head back in the game and thankfully the market was going my way so I set a stop 1 pt in front of my entry so at least I wouldn't lose too much money from this mistake. I didn't take any pictures of it.
First RTH trade ~Open setup at ~ 4825, but I was paying attention to the open setup and not the 4825 part of my plan (bad idea)
I saw the market moving down and I felt bearish so I took the trade. Even though I didn't use a market order, my entry point was really bad.
I was ok with a bad entry because I was so eager to enter into a bear trade.
I paid for having a bad entry point
Trade grade - Bad
Not in plan (technically it was, but saying you can short or long at the open pretty much puts everything in the plan lol)
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
Honestly, I think I should be avoiding any ~open setups for now, I don't think I'm strong enough psychologically to be able to make the right and quick judgment call when the market is moving that fast.
Second RTH trade
Alarm was hit at ~ 4803 area and I was looking for a reversal.
The price was falling fast and I was a bit hesitant about trying to catch this knife, and I was somewhat in loss aversion mode because I lost my last trade.
I got in at a good entry point though, and my stop was behind the 4896 area as stated in my plan, so I kept on watching to get more confirmation that the market was going to reverse.
Believe it or not but about 5 points up I was a bit worried that this was just a pullback and I wanted to get out of the trade.
I didn't see strong enough signs that this was just a pullback but I was in loss aversion mode.
Thankfully I realized I was in loss aversion mode and I asked myself the following question:
"If I was up today and confident in my trading, would I exit this trade? "
The answer was a very clear no, so I walked away from my computer.
Things were looking good and I wanted to move my target up, but that would've been me being too greedy. I decided against it despite being the right move $-wise (I wouldn't know that at the time though). However, it would've still been within my trade management rules.
Microsoft and paypal had some very positive results last night, very strong response from the market
ES is currently down ~30%, YM is up 14%, and NQ is down 10%. Not as correlated as usual
Big move down from CL last 2 days, but still above 50 area
Banks look to be in the red pre-open
5/6 of NQ's biggest are in the green pre-open
News
No major news today
Setups I'll take today
~4890
LF Short
Can enter preemptively depending on the time
Stop behind 4893 is ideal
Target ~14 pts should be safe, ~4868 stretch
Make sure you exit before market closes though
~4880
LF Short
IF range has been low, you can consider entering preemptively, but you need to see some strong exhaustion signs
Stop behind 4880 is a must
Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4861 stretch
If we had a trend bull day getting us here, don't take unless it's near the end of the day, unless signs are very very strong
If you haven't taken many setups yet, you might be tempted to take a break-out trade if we pass this - do not do this as 4890 and 4900 are very strong areas - you can take those setups instead
~4860
LF Short
You are looking for strong signs of aggressive selling
Strong exhaustion signs could be good enough to enter this trade
Ideally look for signs that higher time frame players are stepping in or that an end of week correction is about to start
Ideal stop is behind 4865, but could be very hard to get
Target ~ 4843, but watch the ~50 area for signs that you just took a pullback
~4850 (ON High)
LF Short
You are looking for aggressive selling
Stop behind 4855 is ideal
Target ~4836 is safe, ~4827 is stretch
You want to be confident that the trend is now bear
Be prepared to pass up on this
~4830 (On Low)
LF Long
You are looking for strong signs of buying
Stop behind 4825 is ideal
Target of 4842 is safe, 4849 us stretch
Be prepared to pass up on this
~4830 (On Low)
LF Short
You are looking for a break-down trade
Ideally you want to see higher volume and little resistance around this area
Ideal stop is behind the 4835 area
Safe target is ~4819
Stretch target is ~4813
Be very careful around taking this setup, as we saw some small support areas at ~4825, ~4820, and ~4815
You need to be confident that there will be force driving this down
~4810
LF Long
You are looking for signs of reversal
You want to see strong volume
You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
Signs of exhaustion would have to be very strong to justify entering this
Stop behind 4805 is ideal
Safe target is ~4819, stretch target is ~4824
Don't get too greedy with this
~4800
LF Long
You are looking for signs of reversal
You want to see strong volume
You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
Strong signs of exhaustion could be good enough to enter this
Stop behind 4796 is ideal
Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is ~4824
Don't get too greedy with this
~4780
LF Long
You want to see some strong buying here
Exhaustion might be good enough to enter
The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
A bit of an emotional and FOMO trade here. I was in the middle of my market prep and I hadn't quite finished it, but I set alarms near the ON low just in case they were hit before the open and once the alarm was filled I looked at the charts. Things looked bearish from a quick glance so I got a fill ASAP. This was bad because I really didn't know what would be a good entry point, where to place my stop, where to aim my target, as my homework wasn't quite down.
I ended up paying for that mistake and honestly it's an easy mistake to avoid in the future. Thus I'll be adding it to my silver rules.
No picture for this unfortunately.
New Silver rule - I will not take any pre-market setup that is not already part of my trading plan.
Trade grade - Bad
Not in plan (It is now, but it wasn't when the alarm for it went off)
Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
Once I was able to put my plan together and saw what a good entry, stop, and target would be. The price was around the area still and I looked for the signs and entered the trade.
I didn't realize I only took the picture of my 15min 24hr chart so I apologize for the crappy screenshot
Honestly part of me wanted to exit the tradeabout 5 pts in, as I was feeling some loss aversion. Same as yesterday, because my first trade was a loss.I looked at things and said okay if I didn't just lose that last trade, what would I do?
I would move my stop to secure a profit here, and keep my target above the 4815 mark.
So I did that, and then walked away as I knew I wasn't in a strong state of my mind to watch the trade.
Came back and
I also was very happy with my target because it strongly turned around after that
Trade grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
I'm starting to see a trend in my psychology. If the first trade I take is a loss, and not a 'good' trade, I get into loss aversion mode. It's good to recognize it so you can make sure you are still making the right trading decisions.
I've got potentially one trade left to take this week, so it should be another positive week as I won't be risking enough to wipe out my wins so far.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Aim for 2 trades on most days, and 3 if the market is volatile and you won at least 1 of previous trades (ON trades don't get counted on this, but max 1 ON trade her night)- Passed
Make sure you watch FT71 webinar live, the topic is very relevant this week- Passed
Abide by your new trade management standard- Passed
Do not get greedy with any of your trades- Passed
Make formal changes to your rules- Failed
Update your personal tracking spreadsheet to refer modifications to your rules- Failed
Ensure you are at your desk 75 minutes before market open every day - don't sleep in- Passed
I haven't updated my journal to reflect the rule changes. Same for my spreadsheet, no big deal but it is something I want to do.
I think I had 1 FOMO and emotional trade this week, so while it's not a lot it is still not ideal
I've said it before in my journal but I'm not sure how relevant this stat is anymore. I'm finding it harder and harder to categorize between rational and mixed trade that I edge with the side of caution and go with mixed. I'm going to start tracking reasoning as why I feel each trade was either rational or mixed so I can start to see what is important from this stat, and track that directly. I do feel that tracking emotional trades is still important though, because I want to keep it as close to 0 as possible.
Out of those trades:
Excellent trades: 0
Good trades: 5
Ok trades: 2
Bad trades: 3
Really bad trades: 0
Half of my trades this week were 'good', that means they were in my plan, good entry, good stop, good target. This is a good trend haha :Sarcastic:
This is the first time I have gotten a 50% win ratio when taking 10 or more trades
My wins are ~2.5x my losses, so I don't need to have a 50% win ratio to be profitable, but why not work on the win ratio as well?
I'm finding that limiting myself to a # of trades makes me focus on only taking the best setups of the day. Most days there'll be enough opportunities in the market for me to be profitable, so why not just take the best setups? Of course every now and then I still suffer from FOMO and emotional trading so I'll take less-than-ideal setups, but overall this seems to be working well.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
From a fundamental standpoint, tight balance from now until the election makes sense
Balance between 4760 - 4900 looks likely until big fundamental changes
Expect balance ~ those areas but be prepared for a break-out / break-down at anytime. Specially if some fundamentals change
GDP news on Friday, some Japan announcements on Wednesday
Key earnings this week
Tuesday - Apple
Wednesday - Comcast and Tesla
Thursday - Amazon and Alphabet
We have some big announcements the following week, so be prepared in case you see players making their bets this week (FOMC, BoJ)
Goals for the week
Do not look at P&L until Friday - You have been failing on this lately. Remember that when you look at your P&L on a daily basis you tend to shift your mentality towards short-term profits, and your goal is long-term growth!
Aim for 2 RTH trades on most days, and 3 if the market is volatile and you won at least 1 of previous trades (as for ON / Pre market trades, 3 max per week)
Abide by your trade management standard
Do not get greedy with any of your trades
Make formal changes to your rules - Don't look to make things perfect. Perfect is the enemy of done, just finish it and build on them as you grow
Update your personal tracking spreadsheet to refer modifications to your rules
Ensure you are at your desk 75 minutes before market open every day - don't sleep in
Be active every day. This might not seem trading related but when you get an adequate amount of physical activity you sleep better, feel more confident, and your mind seems calmer. These are all things that have a positive impact on your trading
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Correction from ON activity - Start trending bear, until market finds strong support zone, then trend from ON high and that found support zone
Trend bull until market finds strong resistance, either at ~4880, ~4890, or ~4900. Then trend bear for the remaining of the day
Trend bull until market finds strong resistance, either at ~4880, ~4890, or ~4900. Then trend until market finds strong support, and range between those 2 points
Trend bull day
Trend bear day
Setups I'll take today
~4900
LF Short
Can enter preemptively assuming we didn't shatter the 80 and 90 zone
Exhaustion signs will be good enough to enter depending on the time
The later we hit this setup, the better it becomes
Stop behind 4903 is ideal
Target ~16 pts should be reasonable, ~4876 stretch
You should be seeing strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to sell
Volume should be high
The later we hit this setup, the better it becomes
Stop behind 4895 is ideal
Target ~ 14 pts safe, ~4864 stretch
Watch the ON high area and be prepared to exit for a smaller profit around there
~4880
LF Short
You want to see some aggressive selling
You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to sell
[*}you need to be confident that we have shifted to a bear trend
Stop behind 4880 is a must, behind 4885 is ideal
Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4853 stretch
If we had a trend bull day getting us here, don't take unless it's near the end of the day, unless signs are very very strong
You might be tempted to take a break-out trade if we pass this - do not do this as 4890 and 4900 are very strong areas
The later we hit this setup, the better it becomes
~4875 (ON High)
LF Short
You are looking for some very strong selling
You need to see higher time frame players stepping in to sell
Ideally you'd like to see some strong resistance on the ES as well
You need to be very confident that the trend is now bear
Be prepared to pass up on this setup - not likely you will take this setup
~4840 (ON Low)
LF Long
You are looking for strong signs of reversal
You need to see strong volume and strong buying
Stop behind 4838 is a must
Target ~15 pts is safe, ~ 4859 stretch
You don't want to enter this setup preemptively, even if it means not getting as optimal of an entry
~4840 (ON Low)
LF Short
You are looking for a break-down
You want to see force driving the move from whatever the starting point was
You should see a bit of resistance around here, but you should not be seeing strong reversal signs
Stop behind 4845 is ideal
Safe target is ~4826, Stretch target is ~4817
Be careful not to be too preemptive about this - you need to make sure there are no reversal signs and the signs for the continuation of a bear move are very strong
~4820
LF Long
You are looking for signs of a reversal
Entry will be very important as this is quite a large zone - watch the market closely
Safe target ~ 14 pts, stretch target ~4839
Stop behind 4810 is ideal, but might be difficult
Don't get too greedy on this
Be careful if we are on a bear trend day
The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
~4800
LF Long
You are looking for signs of reversal
Ideally, you want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
Strong signs of exhaustion will be good enough to enter this
Stop behind 4796 is ideal
Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is ~4824 - Adopt to what areas showed resistance during any pullbacks on the move that got us down to this though
Don't get too greedy with this
~4780
LF Long
You want to see some strong buying here
Exhaustion might be good enough to enter
The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
Safe target is ~4796, stretch target is ~4809
Things to watch @ open
Volume profiles - Look for any signs of a potential trend day today
Total volume - Will we see higher time frame players stepping in now? or when we get to the juicier prices of 4780+?
Range - will it be a small range ~ the open as we are getting to the higher areas where historically we haven't stayed in for very long?
Will there be a strong correction? Possibly a squeeze from the ON activity?
What a day today. Looking at my plan, the best I could've hoped for would be to avoid taking any setups as I was not prepared for what was about to happen
Having said that, today was a good & bad day trading wise. I took 2 setups and had 2 losses (the bad part), but both setups were 'good'. I traded well, but things didn't plan out, you're going to have those days. This is my first time trading the 'earnings season' and the lack of experience definitely showed.
First trade opportunity - Passed ON high setup, it looked very weak and it was pre-market so it was a very easy setup to pass
Second trade opportunity - Taken
We hit the 4880 setup right away and I was looking for some strong bear signs.
Trade was looking really good at first. My entry was really good, my stop was behind my ideal area in my trading plan, and the market started to go my way as expected. Then it all got taken out with some very strong buying and that was it for the trade!
Some trades don't work out, but this was a 'good' trade. In retrospect I wish I passed up on this trade and took the 4890 trade instead, but that's hindsight bias
Also in retrospect, I took a riskier setup and I don't know that the signs were strong enough to warrant that. When I took the trade I felt the signs were strong, but I wasn't putting enough emphasis on the fundamentals. I can't really blame myself for this because I've never actually experienced earnings season before.
Trade Grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Third trade opportunity - Passed
We get to the 4890 area and the profiles start to look extremely bearish
Pretty much everything I look for in a reversal, is there Price action is also showing strong exhaustion signs and a reversal seems likely
I chose to pass up on this setup because I tell myself that if I only have one setup left I'd rather take the new all time high setup (assuming we get there), instead of this one. This setup looks very strong but with the strong bull sentiment we could see all-time highs today.
However, if the signs get even stronger around the ~4890 setup, I will take it
Was this the right decision as a trader? I now know it would've resulted in a loss either way, but should I have taken this setup since all my signs were there? I don't know honestly.
Fourth trade opportunity - Taken
I walk away for a bit because passing on the last setup got me really thinking and I needed to clear my thoughts.
Did I make the right decision to pass up on this setup? My intuition tells me we are going to hit all time highs today, but I'm not an experienced enough trader to rely on my intuition. All the information on my charts tells me to short.
I ask myself, if I didn't lose my last trade, would I take this setup? The answer was yes, without a doubt.
I came back and the signs just got stronger and stronger.
Right now I feel that the market can go higher, but the chart and profiles are telling me something different. I'm not a good enough trader to go off my intuition, so I need to interpret the signs and act on them.
The signs say exhaustion is strong, price is being absorbed, and expect the market to drop soon. This trade is within my trading plan and meets the requirements that were laid out in my trading plan. Therefore, the logical action is to short at a good entry and exit.
I choose an entry place where I can have a very good stop according to my plan, and I wait for price to come to me.
Things are looking good as for a reversal. The last 45 minutes were slightly bearish and left some selling wicks. The profile looks super bearish. All of this makes me feel comfortable and honestly I've taken a good setup, that's all I can do.
And in similar fashion to the first trade, I get stopped out and the market goes up.
It didn't feel good
You always want your 'good' setups to be profitable, but that's not how the market works.
Trade Grade - Good
2 trades max today - unless very strong setup and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max- Passed
Abide by your trade management standard- Passed
Do not get greedy with any of your trades- Passed
Today felt like a test on my psychology improvements. I got tempted on all of these rules today (with the exception of deliberate thinking). I was able to fight the temptation and stand strong though.
First of all, I wanted to look at the P&L so bad after I lost the second trade, but what would that accomplish? I would just start to focus on the $ that I lost even though it's just one day. Historically speaking, thinking about my losses has gotten me more losses, which is the reason I added this into my psychology goals in the first place . I had to walk away for sure lol
Second of all, I wanted to take a 3rd trade soooooo bad. I was sooooo sure that a reversal was going to happen, and that it was going to be big. I wanted to set an order for 4899 with ~25 pt target. However, I lost the first 2 trades so there was 0 justification for me to enter into a 3rd trade today. This is good because I would've lost the 3rd trade as well
Overview This is a day when fundamentals should've trumped what the chart was telling me. I need to quote @Inletcap on something he said at the ES thread because it made me realize how my focus was on the wrong things today. This is specific to the ES but also applies to the NQ.
And that's what experience looks like in trading.
An inexperienced trader like myself prioritizes what the chart says over anything that isn't 'huge news'. In a way this is like looking at a piece of the 'big picture'. But an experienced trader like Inletcap understands the 'big picture' and knows what to focus on to make the right decisions.
Overall, starting the week off with 2 losses doesn't usually feel good, but honestly I feel good today . In terms of things that were in my control I took 2 good trades that had strong signs and followed all of my psychology goals despite the temptations.
My $ losses were due to lack of experience in this environment and wrong prioritization between fundamentals and technicals. As a new trader I'm going to make these kind of mistakes so I can't get upset about that. The best I can do is learn so I'm prepared next time.I'm going to have to adapt on this quite fast because we have some of the bigger NQ players releasing earnings later this week.
See you tomorrow!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
