News
Before opening:
No important news

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Bull channel. Yesterday was an inside day bar and likely the start of a PB after the bull spike. Next target above ATH may be 2475.

120 min. chart (ETH): Possible bear BO after LH MTR, LH wedge top and DT bear flag. Possible H2.

30 min. chart (ETH): LH wedge top and DT bear flag. Possible H2.

Overnight: Overnight has "double topped" with prior session high on relative normal volume.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

poseidon 

Thanks for your post, @FlyingMonkey ! I have watched the webinar by FuturesTarder71 so I'm familiar with the concept. But now I have also read the threads on FIO on this subject. There were some intresting posts. The question is still when to take informations risk and when to take price risk. I belive the rule of thumb seems to be to try to get in sooner at a better price, before you have confirmation of the market moving in your direction on TR days and wait for confirmation on trend days. I will start to try to enter more often at a price equal to my S/R-level or better. If my SL gets hit I will accept that I'm wrong and not re-enter before a new setup appears. One advantage of entering on a signal bar and waiting for confirmation is that it helps with timing. An alternative for timing seems to be ordeflow, but I feel that I have to focus on improving my price action reading for the time being.

I'm not too familiar with the above (info vs price risk) but I think that stops and targets have to hinge on two factors:
1. Targets need to be based on your view to the setup's measurement. Where does this setup normally measure to?
2. Stops are based on pullback lengths within the setup concept. For example how much does ES tend to pull back within this setup before the target?

I imagine many people do not evaluate their setups for targets and base their stop on amount-to-lose not on the instruments volatility.

aquarian1 

I'm not too familiar with the above (info vs price risk) but I think that stops and targets have to hinge on two factors: 1. Targets need to be based on your view to the setup's measurement. Where does this setup normally measure to? 2. Stops are based on pullback lengths within the setup concept. For example how much does ES tend to pull back within this setup before the target? I imagine many people do not evaluate their setups for targets and base their stop on amount-to-lose not on the instruments volatility.

This is a good point. The correct SL is at the same price independent of if I choose to wait for confirmation or not, in my case 2 points off the S/R-level for normal volatility.

Trade 1, Setup: Pb, Short, P/L: 1,5 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2454,25, SL: 2456,25 (2 points), Target: 2444,25 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 5
ENTRY: 2454,25 @ 16:17 GMT+1 (9:17 CT)
EXIT: 2452,75 @ 16:55 GMT+1 (9:55 CT)

Reason for taking the trade:
- L2 PB
- resistance
- 2 legs up
- Possible BO failure since big tail on BO bar

Comment: Good entry. Gave back to much on reversal. Should have exited 1 or 2 ticks above first bull bar and re-entered on a bear bar in case of a PB.


Trade 2, Setup: S/R-Rev, Short, P/L: -1 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2454,50, SL: 2455,5 (1 points), Target: 2444,5 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 10
ENTRY: 2454,50 @ 17:32 GMT+1 (10:32 CT)
EXIT: 2455,50 @ 17:32 GMT+1 (10:32 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- DT at HoD
- resistance
- 2nd entry short (after first failed bear BO)
- MDT

Comment: Not ok entry. This was a bull BO with follow through, although FT was weak. Besides the 1 point SL was to tight. With a 2 point SL I would have got out at BE.


Trade 3, Setup: S/R-Rev, Short, P/L: 0,25 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2455,75, SL: 2456,75 (1 points), Target: 2445,75 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 10
ENTRY: 2455,75 @ 18:11 GMT+1 (11:11 CT)
EXIT: 2455,50 @ 18:24 GMT+1 (11:24 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 leg up to VWAP + 2 SD
- resistance
- LH + MDT
- Resistance confluence on 30 min ETH chart (EMA20 + Weekly VWAP)
- L2 PB on 30 min ETH chart

Comment: OK entry. Good exit after failed follow through.


Trade 4, Setup: S/R-Rev, Short, P/L: 0 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2455,00, SL: 2456,25 (1,25 points), Target: 2445 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 8
ENTRY: 2455,00 @ 18:30 GMT+1 (11:30 CT)
EXIT: 2455,00 @ 19:22 GMT+1 (12:22 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- Re-entry (same as above)
- signal bar (strong inside bar)

Comment: OK entry


Trade 5, Setup: S/R-Rev, Short, P/L: -1 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2455,75, SL: 2456,75 (1 points), Target: 2445,75 (10 points), RR-Ratio: 10
ENTRY: 2455,75 @ 20:20 GMT+1 (13:20 CT)
EXIT: 2456,75 @ 20:43 GMT+1 (13:43 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- Resistance confluence on 30 min ETH chart (EMA20 + Weekly VWAP)
- L2 PB on 30 min ETH chart
- MDT at HoD
- 2 legs up after small bear wedge

Comment: OK entry.


Hindsight Thoughts
Today I was trading on the wrong side of the market due to my short bias. The market turned clearly Always In long after the strong bull spike at 17:00 GMT +1 (10:00 CT). In hindsight it is obvious that the measured move target of the strong bull spike had to be hit before any short swing trades would succeed.

News
Before opening:
Housing Starts (positive)

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Bull channel. Market has made a small PB after a strong bull spike and may now BO above ATH . Next target may be 2475.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. Possible MTR but PB is more likely.

30 min. chart (ETH): TR below ATH after bull channel

Overnight: Overnight has made a new high and a new ATH just before opening on relative low volume.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

I also found yesterdays transition to bull a tough one to wrap your head around as so many early signs pointed the other way.

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

teajay 

I also found yesterdays transition to bull a tough one to wrap your head around as so many early signs pointed the other way. Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

I don't follow ES very closely intraday myself but noticed @Mtype posted a link to FT71's recap/daily prep this morning that reviews his market/volume-profile-based premarket analysis from yesterday. I found it interesting. Might be worth a watch if you are interested in that angle. He discusses that particular spike low and recovery.

Trade 1, Setup: S/R-Rev, Short, P/L: -0,75 points
TRADE PLAN: Short: 2467,25, SL: 2468,25 (1 points), Target: 2462,25 (5 points), RR-Ratio: 5
ENTRY: 2467,25 @ 18:20 GMT+1 (11:20 CT)
EXIT: 2468,00 @ 19:11 GMT+1 (12:11 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- MM target hit
- 2 legs up above VWAP + 2 SD on daily, weekly and monthly chart (=overbought)
- MDT at HoD (= 2nd entry)
- target below (opening gap)
- Weak reversal bar after TCL overshoot in tight channel on 30 min ETH chart

Comment: OK entry, but should have exited BE after the LH failed.

Hindsight Thoughts
I did miss the H2 PB at 16.45 GMT+1 (9.45 CT). The reasons to enter were: H2 PB, BO test, failed bear BO. But this would be an entry just below VWAP and without obvious support. And the small PB trend day was not obvious at this time. This looked more like TR to me (Big Up + Big Down).

News
Before opening:
Jobless Claims (positive)
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (negative)

After opening:
No important news


Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral

Sentiment is neutral


Higher TF charts and ON
Daily chart: Bull channel. Market has made a small PB after a strong bull spike and the second leg did start yesterday. Weekly MM target at 2475 was hit overnight. Next target is around 2490.

120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. Possible PB soon.

30 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel.

Overnight: Overnight has made a new high and a new ATH on relative low volume. Weekly MM target at 2475 hit. ioi pattern at MM target, so we may get a BO upwards.


Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)

Trade 1, Setup: S/R-Rev, Long, P/L: -1,25 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2471,75, SL: 2469,75 (2 points), Target: 2475,75 (4 points), RR-Ratio: 2
ENTRY: 2471,75 @ 16:24 GMT+1 (9:24 CT)
EXIT: 2470,50 @ 16:31 GMT+1 (9:31 CT)

Reason for taking the trade:
- H2 PB
- 2 legs down
- Failed BO (tail) at support

Comment: OK entry


Trade 2, Setup: Bo, Long, P/L: -2 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2472,75, SL: 2470,75 (2 points), Target: 2477,75 (5 points), RR-Ratio: 2,5
ENTRY: 2472,75 @ 16:57 GMT+1 (9:57 CT)
EXIT: 2470,75 @ 17:01 GMT+1 (10:01 CT)

Reason for taking the trade:
- BO above VWAP
- FOMO misstake

Comment: This trade was a major misstake. I saw the strong bull reversal bar at Low of day an at a possible wedge bottom, but I decided to wait for a 2nd entry since I saw no resistance. After redaing something on the internet I looked at the chart again and saw the strong bull spike and hit the entry button. This was the worst kind of FOMO misstake. And now I also realize that I did miss an important support level at 2466.25 in my prep. With that level on my chart I would have entered on the prior bull reversal bar. I did try to get out BE but I never got the chance. I'm disappointed with myself since I broke my rule not to enter on BO setups.


Trade 3, Setup: Pb, Long, P/L: -2,75 points
TRADE PLAN: Long: 2471,25, SL: 2468,5 (2,75 points), Target: 2477,25 (6 points), RR-Ratio: 2,2
ENTRY: 2471,25 @ 17:15 GMT+1 (10:15 CT)
EXIT: 2468,50 @ 17:31 GMT+1 (10:31 CT)

Reasons for taking the trade:
- AIL after strong bull spike
- PB at VWAP
- failed BO (after small bull reversal doji)
- big bull reversal bar on 30 min chart
- PB to 60min EMA20 on 30 min ETH chart

Comment: Reasonable entry reasons but bad management. I did use a larger SL that should hold for a possible 2nd push down (H2 PB) but the 2nd push was deeper than I would expect. I'v done this missatke before and I start to belive that it's better to take a small loss and reenter than to use a larger SL.

Hindsight Thoughts
Today was a really bad day with 3 full stops. After that I stopped trading for the day according to my rules. I felt a bit tired and unfocused and that affected my trading. One unnecessary FOMO misstake and bad prep. is not acceptable. Better not to trade when one not in top form.