Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
News Before opening:
International Trade in Goods (neutral)
After opening:
No important news
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is neutral/up
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. Strong bear BO bar to the bottom of the june TTR. Test of major bull channel TL. Low of June 1st bull spike at 2409 may be a target below. Today will decide if the bear BO will fail or have follow through. Ovenight has tested June 9th swing low, so we may have a DB bull flag.
120 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel. TL break by strong bear spike. We may get a MTR soon.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new low and reversed up in yesterdays range on relative high volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Wedge top + HH (= 2nd entry or FF)
- resistance
- VWAP + 2 SD
- TICK divergence
- strong signal bar (2 bar reversal)
- Wedge top and TCL overshoot on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: OK entry
Hindsight Thoughts
This was a difficult day with price action that looked like a TR day, but market was just going higher without reversals. Likely a reaction to yesterdays strong bear BO on the daily chart.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. Yesterday was big outside up bar and test of major bull channel TL. DB bull flag. We are close to high of the June TR.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR/Bull channel. TL break by strong bear spike. We may get a MTR soon.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR. H2 PB. Possible HH MTR today.
Overnight:Overnight has traded just above yesterdays high on relative normal volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- PB after strong bear BO bars to resistance (60 min EMA20 and weekly VWAP)
- failed opening reversal
- signal bar (bear reversal bar)
- Possible MM down and enough room to ADR low
Comment: Ok entry plan. Good exit point at failed L2.
Reasons for taking the trade:
- PB to VWAP after strong bear leg
- L2 and wedge PB
- Weekly VWAP and Monthly VWAP on ETH chart = resistance
- Possible MM down and enough room to ADR low
Comment: Ok entry plan. Target was low of yesterdays opening gap.
Hindsight Thoughts
Could I have captured more than 11 points of this 38 point trend day?
Was there a setup to enter the last leg of the bear trend around 18.00 GMT+1 (11.00 CT)?
At this time I was wondering if this was just a strong leg down to the TR low or if the trend would continue. There was a pause and a pullback at TR low (support) but no trend line break so far, so the odds were that the trend would continue. But the tight TR after the PB at support (18.30 GMT +1, 11.30 CT) made me hesitate.
Was there a setup to enter the trend reversal after 19.35 GMT+1 (12.35 CT)?
The big bear BO bars (=exhaustion gap), the wedge shape of the three legs in the bear trend and the huge 8 point bull BO bar were signs of a reversal. VWAP was the obvious target. But we still haven't had a TL break. The TL break was sideways and the retest of the bear trend low was a relative small HL (at 20.05 GMT +1/13.05 CT). A second lower HL or LL could be expected but didn't occur. This setup would have required at least a 5-10 point SL and that is more than I was willing to risk.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. Yesterday was big bear day and a bull channel TL overshoot. June 1 Bull spike low as well as SMA(50) was tested. Today is last day of month as well as last day of week. So open of month and open of week are targets.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. 2nd LH after ATH. L2 PB. Possible wedge bottom.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR. 2nd LH after ATH. L2 PB. Possible wedge bottom.
Overnight: Overnight has traded inside yesterdays range on relative high volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Reasons for taking the trade:
- L2 PB to VWAP after strong bear leg
- Signal bar (small bear reversal bar)
- BO PB at 60 min EMA20 on 30 min ETH chart
- Possible new retest (HL) of yetserdays bear trend low
- Weekly open was possible target below
Comment: Not ok entry since consecutive bull BO bars flipped AI to long and signal bar was weak. Should at least have waited for a 2nd entry. (A small DT came 3 bars later) This trade was unattended but the correct exit would have been above the bull bar after the failed bear BO bar.
The June result is about break even with an expectancy of 0,22R so that looks like a small improvement. But it's mainly becacuse of a small increase in the percentage of winning trades and a few big runners. My main problem is still that the percentage profitable trades is far too low (32%).
The results for June show that:
the percentage OK entries was 68% wich is less than May, so this is a setback for my goal of improved discipline. The expectancy for the trades that were OK entries was 0,5R. So improved discipline is important.
my swing trading is very sensistive to the ADR. An important reason for the bad result in May was the tighter ADR.
when I analyze the result for setups it is obvious that BO setups are losing trades for me.
Action plan for July:
1. Continue to work on better discipline and increase the percentage of error free entries. (More focus, less surfing on the internet, more active priceaction reading.)
2. Stop trading BO setups
3. Continue to improve your exits. (For instance exit immediately after a failed BO etc.)
4. Try to find a setup to enter the first big move within 30 minutes after opening
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please do support me in "Big Mikes FIO Journal Challenge - July 2017" with aThanks to this post.
Hindsight Thoughts
The 3 day bear wedge flag on the HTF ETH chart triggered after 18:00 GMT +1 (11:00 CT). This was a 10 point move and two legs down. Was there a reasonable setup to enter this move? It was a LH but it was also TR after a bear spike and a bull spike = Big Up, Big Down (BUBD). The first bear BO bar was strong and it also was a failed H2, bull BO PB. But I don't trade BO:s any more and this could also have formed a DB with the prior bear spike.
The L2 BO PB after the first bear BO spike had a bull signal bar and the entry bar was a bear BO bar. So there was no reasonable entry opportunity here either.
After opening:
GMT +1: 20:00 / EST: 14:00 (FOMC Minutes)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
ES: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Bull channel. PB and bull channel TL test. We are trading sideways inside June 29 big bear bar. Today is FOMC minutes release so this may be a quiet session.
120 min. chart (ETH): TR. Consecutive LH:s after ATH. Bear flag after June 29 big bear spike. Possible BO up or down.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR.
Overnight:Overnight has traded inside prior session on relative low volume. The pre-opening bull move up to the weekly VWAP may be reversed at opening.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
