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Trade 1 (MTR, long): +9,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- LL MTR
- Support and target hit (May 5, bull spike low),
- Broad ETH bull channel TL on HTF chart
- ADR low hit
- MDB
Comment: Ok entry plan. I was waiting for a HL, 2nd entry, when the big bull BO bar appeared. I became worried that we wouldn't get a 2nd entry besides the MDB because the reversal may be to obvious, so I bought the big bull BO bar close. The HL did come but it was followed by another big BO bar. The perfect entry timing in this case would have been to wait for the HL and place a stop order above the bear bar while the LH did form.
Hindsight Thought
Although I did no big misstake today I did miss two good entry opportunities during the inital bear rally. Firstly I did skip my new entry rule (S/R-O), that is to enter at strong S/R on any reasonable signal bar during the first 30 minutes. This would have got me into the rally on the second bar. But I didn't like the big bear outside bar and there were som minor support levels just below. But this entry rule should just be executed, since there is so little relevant information at the beginning of the session.
Secondly I failed to enter on a BO setup. It's peculiar how the fast moving price did paralyze me. I was convinced that price had travelled to far and was waiting for the PB instead of consider the option to enter on a BO setup. If I would have checked the 1 min chart I would have seen the consecutive BO bars and that it would have been ok to enter the rally.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: YD was a bull reversal bar and a DB with May 5 (buy signal). The open of week, that is also ATH, is a target above since bulls may try to turn the weekly bar into a bull bar on the weekly chart.
120 min. chart (ETH): We are trading just below the major TR high and at the broad bull channel TL. We have formed a 4 day wedge bottom and are about to start the 2nd leg up that may be a MM to resistance at 2398.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR. Possible 4 day broad bear channel (= big bull flag)
Overnight:Overnight has traded inside prior session range on relative normal volume and went up on news.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade1(S/R-Rev, long): 0,0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 legs down, 2nd leg hit MM target and VWAP - 2 Std.Dev.
- Support
- MDB
- TICK divergence
- Possible DB bull flag on 30 min ETH chart
Comment: Ok entry plan. But my execution was not ok. I entered on a market order instead of a buy stop order 1 tick above the MDT, because the current bar (after the MDT) was a strong bull bar at the time, before it had closed. This was a misstake that became obvious today as the bar turned into a strong bear bar when it closed.
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: Last week was ATH and a bear reversal bar on the weekly chart. Daily chart is trading sideways, likely TR just below ATH.
120 min. chart (ETH): We are trading just below the major TR high and at the broad bull channel TL. Looks like TR and a possible triangle.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR. Possible HL MTR after TL break of 4 day broad bear channel.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high on relative normal volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (S/R-Rev, short): -2.0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Resistance
- MM target hit (2nd leg of Wedge on ETH chart) and possible climax
- TICK divergence
- LH (=2nd entry)
- TL break of tight bull channel
- signal bar (bear reversal bar)
Comment: Ok entry plan. Execution misstake since I set stop entry order 1 Tick to high. Trade was unattended after entry and exited with ATM strategy at BE.
Hindsight Thoughts
I have to improve the way I enter my entry orders.
Today I once again didn't enter on the first bar although this was a good bull signal bar at support. That is a setup I must take according to my trading plan. The hesitation is likley because I don't trust the setup since it's only based on a backtest of 3 month of data.
I have just last week started experimenting with trading Crude as I was a /ES trader only. I have done extremely well in Crude I traded them single and at the same time. I done well trading them at the same time but would not recommend it because I can't fully enjoy the trade or trading. I love watching the charts and reading candle sticks as if I'm watching Tv when I'm trading. I would recommend trading one at a time, I have found if /ES charts are less than desirable than I would check Crude or vice versa. I still feel trading one instrument is best but I'm glad I now know I can crush Crude as well as /ES if I needed to. I feel I should disclose that all my trading for now has been Demo only do to lack of capital.
News Before opening:
Housing Starts (negative)
Industrial Production (neutral)
After opening:
No important news
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral
Oil: up
Gold: neutral
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: YD was a bull BO bar on the Daily chart just below ATH. Today will decide wether we will get follow through and a new BO attempt of ATH or a DT at ATH.
120 min. chart (ETH): We are trading in a broad bull channel just at ATH and at the high of the major TR. (Last week was just a bear flag within the channel.)
30 min. chart (ETH): Bull channel and high of major TR.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high that is a test of ATH on relative normal volume.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
