Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
1. The dollar index has been under pressure, for whatever reason, that it has been rejected in the pivot zone of 94.90.
The path of least resistance is to challenge the swing low at 94.40. In the meantime, we could expect the Euro and Pound to keep gain strength.
2. NQ has the clearest structure among the four US indices. It has just completed a wedge formation at the high concluding the bullish swing from 7450 level. This formation suggests a target of 7520 which coincides the prior break out level and weekly VPOC.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Really pissed today that I was watching Russell and looking for a buy while completely overlooking the buying opportunity in ES that I have identified in my previous note.
I am going to throw out the Russell from my watch list for now. A quirky and erratic instrument that I don't have any edge for. Look at how messy the price action was the past week. I would not be interested in trading it until Russell get out of the mess like this.
1. Dollar is still heavy that if it stays below 94.50 for this session, then it might be poised to run more stops behind 94.00 level. Note that there are a cluster of swing points (stops behind them) concentrated around 94.00 level that the market maker might be interested in running them for liquidity.
The alternative scenario is that the market maker is only interested in filling their orders in the liquidity pool behind that swing point, and it is ready to lift market up.
2. Shoes dropped that the tariff is decided. No more selling pressure, hence DAX says it is finally ready to rip to the high.
This pattern of buying after the worst news being announced is a repeating phenomenon in a bull market.
3. Just like the previous week, the Monday was a bullish day and the Tuesday has seen its daily high being formed rather early in the London session. In Pound, the formation at the high indeed looks heavy and the order flows are negative. Hence we should bear in mind the possibility of a deeper pullback to the 13150 area before the upside continuation.
I was in the process of making transition in my trading mindset and methodology.
The focus of this week is to increase consistency. I have identified three areas to work on to improve consistency.
1. Instrument selection: Mike Bellafiore from SMB capital said: you are only as good as the stock you are trading. It is absolutely true. The key is to trade more in the instruments that embodies more consistent price actions and order flows. Usually the liquid instruments tend to be more consistent and move in an orderly fashion.
From this week on, I am moving away from FDAX, RTY and NQ for now. The reason is that they frequently have vicious stop runs from time to time and it is difficult for me scale up my position size as a result.
Now I have started to appreciate ES much more that even if your entry is wrong, you could scale at lower prices to get out at break even. Because 90% of the bars in ES are not in strong momentum.
To replace DAX and NQ, I have found the CL and HG are actually in the sweet spot of being volatile enough while the liquidities are deep enough most of the time that your stop loss orders would damage your account in any out sized way. Hence the conclusion is
a) to focus on 6E, 6B and HG for my London session;
b) focus on ES, YM and CL for the NY session;
c) the GC is covered in my periphery vision that GC could be interesting sometimes when it is in play.
2. Trade only from the trade locations that has edge:
One of the biggest lesson I have learned from the market profile analysis is to identify the weak levels that the short term traders are forcing the actions. More often than not, those short term visual references traded by the short term traders are not the real turning points. A good low/high is the one with adequate excess that the short term inventories are flushed/stopped out. In order to do so, you should consult actively to the longer term PnF charts with at least 1 to 2 week's price action in your view.
3. Always seek confirmation the order flow and/or NYSE TICK:
I have found that the NYSE TICK is so handy in foretelling an impending turning point. The strongest setups are one with both delta divergence (or ice burger order) and TICK divergence.
Due to the fact that I am dealing with a new set of instruments, my mind is struggling to the excess information, which means I would have to work on this continuously until it becomes routine.
Now the standard operation procedure for me is like this:
Every morning, when I sit down in front of the computer, I open up the dollar chart first. Then to the weekly Euro and Pound PnF charts. Subsequently Crude, Gold and Copper weekly PnF charts. When it doubt, move to monthly PnF charts.
Once the big picture is clearly ingrained my mind, i would by then move on to the tick charts and foot print charts which are used for execution. If the big picture is not clear to me, then there is no edge for me to execute.
