OpalDragon 

I purchased the AXIA FUTURES video course that shows one of their traders going from s small contracts on the FGBL in London all the way up to 300 contract POSITION! And all his talk about order flow this..... order flow that... bid blah blah bhah ask this ask that.... When I truly truly focused on him and started to watch what he was doing >>> He was actually really just trading momentum and momentum only! He talks about bids.... and he talks about asks... etc... but he really really not doing much with that... he is looking at breakdowns or breakouts and looking for a stream of contracts to keep coming in to the stream that created that trade...

"looking for a stream of contracts to keep coming".... so that would be a flow of orders. To me that sounds a lot like, wait for it order flow
I haven't bought an Axia course but I have watched a number of their YouTube videos and they constantly talk about Bid or Offers holding or refreshing and their videos show a screen full of DOMs. All a DOM shows is the flow of orders traded and the order book ie the two raw components of order flow. How could they not be using order flow if that's what they look at, they haven't just got them up on their screens to look 'Pro' or 'cool' in videos.

Even only watching a few of the free videos I know they are news traders, they trade events, and most of their trades seem to be breakout, momentum trades ie they buy because the market is strong or sell because it is weak. Even trading large size they are not trying to buy the low of the day or sell the high of the day like the general retail trader trying to turn the market round with their one lot. They are taking the path of least resistance and making money (a great deal of it by all accounts).

I find the fact that you don't recognise any of that as order flow surprising and wonder what you believe order flow actually is. And also wonder why you bought their course in the first place as what you are describing sounds very similar to the snippets one sees in their free videos (though presumably much more comprehensively explained). I assume you would have done some investigation of them beforehand by at least watching those free videos before signing up for the course, yet the contents of the course seems to have been not at all what you were expecting and obviously a disappointment to you. I also wonder how much time and effort you have actually put in yourself to learn from what they teach and really work hard at applying it and improving yourself, before you wrote it off as rubbish.

matthew28 

"looking for a stream of contracts to keep coming".... so that we will be a flow of orders. To me that sounds a lot like, wait for it order flow I haven't bought an Axia course but I have watched a number of their YouTube videos and they constantly talk about Bid or Offers holding or refreshing and there videos show a screen full of DOMs. All a DOM shows is the flow of orders traded and the orderbook ie the two raw components of orderflow. How could they not be using orderflow if that's what they look at, they haven't just got them up on their screens to look 'Pro' or 'cool' in videos. Even only watching a few of the free videos I know they are news traders, they trade events, and most of their trades seem to be breakout, momentum trades ie they buy because the market is strong or sell because it is weak. Even trading large size they are not trying to buy the low of the day or sell the high of the day like the general retail trader trying to turn the market round with their one lot. They are taking the path of least resistance and making money (a great deal of it by all accounts). I find the fact that you don't recognise any of that as orderflow surprising and wonder what you think orderflow actually is. And also wonder why you bought their course in the first place as what you are describing sounds very much similar to the snippets one sees in their free videos (though presumably much more comprehensively explained). I assume you would have done some investigation of them beforehand by at least watching those free videos before signing up for the course, yet the contents of the course seems to have been not at all what you were expecting and obviously a disappointment to you. I also wonder how much time and effort you have actually put in yourself to learn from what they teach and really work hard at applying it and improving yourself, before righting it off as rubbish.

And lets not forget to ask how price can have momentum (mass x velocity).
How do we get the mass of price?

volume / sec is our velocity I suppose.

But mass?

By momentum then we might mean the ratio of market to limit orders.

Sounds like order flow to me.

Many people in this thread seem to be trying to reduce this discussion down to a binary yes or no, all or none type of answer. Unfortunately it's not quite that simple.

As several recent participants (including, I believe @OpalDragon) have tried to point out, orderflow is often used not as a primary tool but as a supplemental tool.

A breakout or momentum trader, for example, may use orderflow to provide confirmation for entries and exits. Indeed this is quite common among price action traders as well. They may identify a level on a price chart where they expect to see a reaction, and then study the volume, delta, and the movement of bids and offers to help them decide whether and how to trade the level.

I've done quite a bit of work with cumulative delta, and one of the most important early lessons I learned was that context is absolutely critical. All of my early attempts at developing a systematic (algorithmic) strategy based on delta, footprints, or order flow alone failed because I found that certain setups only work in trending markets, others only work in consolidations, etc. I'm sure that countless others have had similar experiences. Many probably convinced themselves that orderflow just does not and cannot work, while others dug a little deeper and realized that, in certain markets, under certain conditions, orderflow can become a very valuable tool.

Using orderflow as your only tool will probably lead to failure. Using it as a supplemental tool may dramatically improve your performance, or even turn a losing strategy into a winner by filtering out false or weak setups.

A master carpenter does not build a high-end cabinet using only a mitre saw. the same concept may apply here with orderflow. You don't have to embrace it, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it either.

ninjus 

And lets not forget to ask how price can have momentum (mass x velocity). How do we get the mass of price? volume / sec is our velocity I suppose. But mass? By momentum then we might mean the ratio of market to limit orders. Sounds like order flow to me.

Everyone who mentions momentum in trading means how fast is price changing.

If we were physicists we would call it velocity. But we're not physicists, so it's "momentum."

The terminology gets me sometimes too, but that's trading life.

(No actual point to this post, except I just got an impulse to make it when I saw the physics formula. Carry on. )

Bob.

matthew28 

"looking for a stream of contracts to keep coming".... so that we will be a flow of orders. To me that sounds a lot like, wait for it order flow I haven't bought an Axia course but I have watched a number of their YouTube videos and they constantly talk about Bid or Offers holding or refreshing and there videos show a screen full of DOMs. All a DOM shows is the flow of orders traded and the orderbook ie the two raw components of orderflow. How could they not be using orderflow if that's what they look at, they haven't just got them up on their screens to look 'Pro' or 'cool' in videos. Even only watching a few of the free videos I know they are news traders, they trade events, and most of their trades seem to be breakout, momentum trades ie they buy because the market is strong or sell because it is weak. Even trading large size they are not trying to buy the low of the day or sell the high of the day like the general retail trader trying to turn the market round with their one lot. They are taking the path of least resistance and making money (a great deal of it by all accounts). I find the fact that you don't recognise any of that as orderflow surprising and wonder what you think orderflow actually is. And also wonder why you bought their course in the first place as what you are describing sounds very much similar to the snippets one sees in their free videos (though presumably much more comprehensively explained). I assume you would have done some investigation of them beforehand by at least watching those free videos before signing up for the course, yet the contents of the course seems to have been not at all what you were expecting and obviously a disappointment to you. I also wonder how much time and effort you have actually put in yourself to learn from what they teach and really work hard at applying it and improving yourself, before righting it off as rubbish.

Thank you Matthew for a well balanced commentary. You have hit the nail on the head pretty much for every point I was planning to respond with. Many people dismissing one or another concept, method or a strategy just because it does not match their personality or because they have not placed a sufficient effort into learning and understanding it. It's is mind boggling. I can understand that a very narrowed approach can lead to this type of conclusions but this is exactly what separates traders into those who will make it in this business because they "understand" the context of the market and those who simply looking for another Red / Green Buy / Sell indicator.

The truth of the matter is that Order Flow is just another tool and if you are a professional, you need many tools in in your tool box. I have posted before on this thread that OF consists of TWO main components: Traded volume and An order Book (Passive / Aggressive market participants). DOM is simply an analogy of a B&W Photography that combines BOTH these channels of information and just like with B&W photography one truly needs to be a master to depict and reflect the depth and complexity of what he sees through the lens of his camera. Yes, the new trillion pixel color digital cameras are very nice and expensive, but if one lacks the knowledge and talent to use it properly it is nothing more than shiny toy. While even the primitive B&W camera in hands of professional photographer will yield phenomenal results.

Yes, we are all "momentum" traders. Doesn't matter if we use Order Flow or not. I have not yet met a consistently profitable trader that only does reversals. On a long run it NEVER works. We all strive to find the trend and ride it simply because it dramatically increases our chances of a successful trade. And if one knows how to identify these signals of momentum using the DOM (aka Order Flow) he will have much better chance of success than the one simply relying on the indicator and wating for a green light to flash.

People have a tendency to make things complicated while they trade rather than simply understanding the mechanics of the market. I know a very successful person who thaught himself OF by simply looking at the action for almost 2 years, replaying the tape, Foot Print and DOM after each session and now this guy makes millions by trading only ONE (!) market - CL. No expensive software or Guru's that charge thousands of dollars.

Yes, it can be done. Putting the time and effort into it - whole another story.

Cheers,

Mek.

Schnook 

Many people in this thread seem to be trying to reduce this discussion down to a binary yes or no, all or none type of answer. Unfortunately it's not quite that simple. As several recent participants (including, I believe @OpalDragon) have tried to point out, orderflow is often used not as a primary tool but as a supplemental tool. A breakout or momentum trader, for example, may use orderflow to provide confirmation for entries and exits. Indeed this is quite common among price action traders as well. They may identify a level on a price chart where they expect to see a reaction, and then study the volume, delta, and the movement of bids and offers to help them decide whether and how to trade the level. I've done quite a bit of work with cumulative delta, and one of the most important early lessons I learned was that context is absolutely critical. All of my early attempts at developing a systematic (algorithmic) strategy based on delta, footprints, or order flow alone failed because I found that certain setups only work in trending markets, others only work in consolidations, etc. I'm sure that countless others have had similar experiences. Many probably convinced themselves that orderflow just does not and cannot work, while others dug a little deeper and realized that, in certain markets, under certain conditions, orderflow can become a very valuable tool. Using orderflow as your only tool will probably lead to failure. Using it as a supplemental tool may dramatically improve your performance, or even turn a losing strategy into a winner by filtering out false or weak setups. A master carpenter does not build a high-end cabinet using only a mitre saw. the same concept may apply here with orderflow. You don't have to embrace it, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it either.

That's actually what I meant.... and better explained... Thanks Schnook - and great Mjölnir on the profile pic.

There is value derived from the videos of the 2 to 300 trader that I was talking about .... but it is not 100% like they are talking about.

It is more how I am talking about. You have to put it in the context of Sustained Order Flow Velocity.... I never really liked the term momentum either -- because price doesn't have a mass so to speak.

Unless -- maybe -- we give it a theoretical mass value to it so that we can then start applying classical mathematical formulas to it and see if they provide any value.

Nothing says I can't give a "tick" a let's say 1 Gram theoretical value.....

There is nothing that says that is really illegal. So we can give it 1 Gram of completely of theoretical mass and then start running formulas on it.
But the problem with that is that you have to assume that classical physics apply to price and ticks movement.

It would be kind of interesting to test if it would apply in some way. >Shrug<

bobc 

Hi Niko Thank you for your prompt response.I will have a look at Rob Smith. Another question. How do you project a bullish/ bearish position for Gold in say Dec.? regards bobc

Currently I am trading the Grains and the Crude Oil, but I will take a look at Gold. You have
to study the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and Hourly candle formations according to Rob Smith's
approach. Basically, you have similar color candles (red, or green) across these time frames,
is called TFC for Time Frame Continuity and the candles better be in agreement either for
bullish, or bearish projection. Looking at XAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar) seems that Gold is approaching
a top. Hope it helps. Maybe, by looking up Rob Smith's videos on youtube, could help you
get the concept. He has a video called "The greatest story ever sold" that gives a good picture
of his method. Have fun.......

nikotron1124 

My trading is based on options where I can set my targets and my stops by using the right strikes based on my bullish, or bearish projection. For price discovery I have been using for a long time Rob Smith's approach, the "strat" You can follow him on Twitter @Rob in the black.

thanks for introducing me to rob smith, took a look his videos, was very impressed initially, then realized that it could be a different story to actually trade his theory.

kingfish8877 

thanks for introducing me to rob smith, took a look at his videos, was very impressed initially, then realized that it could be a different story to actually trade his theory.

Don't know if you are aware that one of the members here on Fut. io wrote an indicator to help with Robs Smith theory of Time Confluence,
I do not trade his system, but I will tell Time Confluence is a very interesting gauge of what is happening in a very precise moment...when all 4 time periods agree. There is a level of confidence that comes into play.

kingfish8877 

thanks for introducing me to rob smith, took a look his videos, was very impressed initially, then realized that it could be a different story to actually trade his theory.

Yes, you are absolutely right. It is very challenging to trade his method, BUT with the right time frames and some exposure to this method on a steady basis you will discover that once you have (what he calls) a "RevStrat" you practically have an almost 100% trade setup with very well defined exit points, just in case something really major shook up the market. Of course, you can trade what he teaches in his course, but this "RevStrat" setup is (almost over 98%) a success. Getting the time frames from the 15 minute up to monthly line up is a sure banking success.
The challenge is to stay away from any indicator (at least at the beginning) so as to not bias in any way your trade selection. Now, if you know about options and their almost infinite way of setting a trade using them, makes you decision to enter a trade much, much easier and less agonizing. Wishing the very best in your trading. Remember, one has to walk before one can run.