Missed the long boat during PB to 3830. Limit buy @ 26 was too greedy!

Now short from 3860. Betting on mean reversion. vwap 20 target.

Less likely to visit 3900 but if RV and Delta remains strong above 70, will consider bailing out.

SPY Options call and put volumes have been bearish but I'm still learning about their intra day correlation with ES. Just observation and not necessarily an actionable tool yet.

Went Flat @ 75. Not a bad theme for short but distracted due to family calls and hence took the loss. -15 pts.

30+ from my 1st long and gave 1/2 when I'm short.

I didn't pay much respect to volume delta force today. When buyers were actively buying @ open, I got out of my longs. Same mistake when I reversed my bias changed to short. Buyers weren't done yet. As i'm typing, sellers gathering steam and price down to 70. Howeve, I'm done for the day.

Need to tend my new born twins so that my wife can get some sleep

Back to business.

Short again from 93. Will add more if we revisit 3900.

Obvious reason is we are hitting the resistance i.e put wall with low volume and lack of support from option chain so far.

I will most likely hold this short overnight even if we stay above 3900 without pullback. The reason is statistical edge. When ES closed above 2%(>200 occurunces in 20 years), it not only has a bearish follow up the next day, we are also more likely to gap down. That's a juicy prospect, especially when we have tailwind from the option market. Will see.

My weekend Overnight short paid me a little over 15 points. Not a lot but I will take anything other than a loss. Gap down open as expected but less bearish than I expected.

Since overnight price was compressed and directionless, I went flat @ RTH open.

Currently momentum and internals are still mildly bearish. Hence have a bracket breakout order to the downside if we revisit 3881.

If we make a new HOD, then my bias will become bullish and will look into entry on PB.

New short @ 3881.

Not super confident but the momentum is still down. Hence going along for a ride. Won't be surprised with quick move back to vwap and won't hesitate to reverse my bias to long.

Closed my short - Flat for the day.

Very poor relative volume.
Choppy and directionless market.
Pre FOMC days.

I will find better things to do until volume picks up with conviction.

Short again 3891.

Volume picked up quite a bit, but the range is still very compressed. Just 35% of 5 day ATR.

I'm not sure whether this is all we are going to get today. Normally I would say yes, during the week of FOMC. However, looking at the volume, I think there is quite a bit of interest now in getting us out of this tight range. It's more likely to be the downside.

However, if we test 3900 again, I'm out.

Edit. Flat again. Breakeven. Expected a quicker decisive move but we are back to chop. Not worth it now. May revisit during closing hour.

2 quick short trades. Initially expected a low volume choppy pre FOMC day. Surprised to see responsive selling and quick rejection above 3900.

1st short 90 to 75.

2nd one is stop sell breakout at 70. Usually my worst entries happen with this style but today got lucky and out at 55.

15 pts is generally scalping trade for me but I will take it before FOMC.

Long 69.

Playing the mean reversion play to 3900 or vwap.

Its more risky than usual but bears seemed to be loosening their grip with distribution in the 60s.

Currently slightly underwater as bears emerging again. Feels like unnecessary trade and should have stayed out. Will see

Still long but losing faith. Price is stuck in a narrow 15 pts range for 2 hrs.

Bailed out BE.

EOD for me. Not a bad day.

Bearish bias for tomorrow but no game plan yet.