FOMC day generally stay quiet in a small range before announcement.

I will likely fade the VAH, possibly around 3895 to 3900 area with the expectation of downward push and test of 3800.

If we don't get a bounce, then I'm unsure whether I want to chase the market. In that scenario, I may get into scalping mode later in the day.

I may even stay in the sidelines for today and have a fresh look tomorrow once the dust settles down.

Sticking to my plan outlined above.

Short 3892.

Looks bullish but it's purely a bet based on support resistance stuff. If I'm lucky, we may visit 3800 support. If unlucky, then may go upto 3950.

Not bothered with the outcome as it's just 1 contract. Just for the joy ride

2:1 Risk. Let's see.

Perfect entries. May be early exit but willing to get short again.

Short from 92. Scaled in @ 77.

Scaled out @ 29 and full exit @ 16.

If we make new low, will consider shorting the bounce again.

When it was testing the lows, I was remembering you as you had said you wanted to hold it until it hits 90 odd points in your favor. I thought you might have holded it off for the big payout as it was 'a 2:1 ratio, don't care much' trade.

lightsun47 

When it was testing the lows, I was remembering you as you had said you wanted to hold it until it hits 90 odd points in your favor. I thought you might have holded it off for the big payout as it was 'a 2:1 ratio, don't care much' trade.

Thanks for calling me out on that one

My plan was to go flat around 3802 and that would have been a 90 pts in my favor. However, when price reached 100% of 5 days ATR, my 'exit' FOMO kicked in. Despite knowing well that FED days can easily reach 150% range, my itchy fingers were in action. I exited 13 points earlier.

That's why I love the 'Market on Close' MOC orders in interactive brokers. It takes me out of the exit decision and the results are beautiful on trend days. I could have bagged another 40 points.

‘Oh what a tangled web I weave, When I want to take profits in trading’

Good but not good enough

Next paradigm shift

I'm currently reading 'Best loser wins' by Tom Hougaard. I believe Late Mark Douglas had said enough in this area of psychology (Brett if you want to go deeper).

Though Tom has a lot of unncessary and typical stories you would normally find in other trading books, he hits the bull's eye when it comes to fear vs hope. He also delves a bit deeper.

Taking partial profits i.e scale out can be one such example. It's usually driven by losing paper profit, atleast in my case.

In addition to my current agenda for the rest of 2022 to scale up from 2 to 3 in my winning trades, I'm also trying to NOT scale out. Atleast on days with high relative volume with strong past stats where the odds of trend days are higher.

Post FOMC day prep.

Stats are (surprisingly) bullish for today despite overnight bearish price action.

However, my EMA crossover entry system is NOT giving me long signal yet. I need to see aggressive buyers with good volume first and then I will try to enter on retrace.

If I am able to get in the 3700s, then I could ride the bounce until 3800. The bearish posture/trend would still be intact. Though I still have bearish bias, it feels like we marched down too quick I may be brave enough to try a short but will be very quick to switch my bias to long if the momentum shifts.

Yesterday's VIX movement was strange at it closed DOWN after a volatile down day in ES. I am not sure whether that means anything. Currently learning about VIX contango/backwardation and hopefully will put it to good use in my ES trading soon.

Long 3720.

Not a great entry but I want to test the bullish thesis with just a taster position. 3700 support seems to be holding but I don't count on it much.

If my bullish theory is proven right by moving above 3740, then I may scale in. Otherwise, will consider bailing out below 3700 support.

Price action feels crazy, presumably due to thin order book (though I don't look at or trade using orderbook). Price is slicing through several points like they are vacuum.

Price moving in my favor now @ 3750 and above vwap. Still down gap and significant overhead resistance but I'm playing for reversal day. Potentially upto 3800.

I wanted to add to my long @ 27 but missed the entry by a couple of points. Not chasing yet. Bulls are barely winning and no reason to load up. Not yet.

Even if I end up holding just 1 contract, I'm ok as it's a high volatility environment and 80 pts per contract is not a bad trading outcome.