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Since I was asked to start a journal of my own after posting on GFIs1 on and off, I will do so herewith.
It will be nothing spectacular but absolutely "symple". I will start with a few chart analyses on my part so that interested readers get an idea of where the journey should go.
I am currently not active in the market and will therefore post from different markets. But since I live in Switzerland at the moment, the DAX will certainly come first.
If I become active in the market again, this will be as before mainly in the American market. My profi tools are not active at the moment (Option Analysis Tool and Chart analysis Tool), which is not necessary in this situation because the internet has a lot to offer.
Have fun.
An other good entry point, as we have a double top in the DAX (One hourly chart)
On the daily chart alterntively I can see this range in the DAX. It is an alternative to trade with over night position.
Following is the Standardvolatilit in the DAX (One hour per candle) This number I will need to make some math for any targets which may appear during the trading day:
Maximal target today I would see at around 15'510 in case market goes dowm. On the upper side, which I not expect, I would see it at around 15'790.
On the other hand, when I look at the put/call premium ratio, I see a huge volume in the call options and this does not exactly speak for a long rise. At least from my point of view. There are still ten days until the expiration date (03/17/23) and therefore a lot can still happen.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.
This makes markets a bit unsure.
When looking at the vola, you can see a starting rise.
When looking at the option chain, you can see that the IV of the put atm is lower compare to the IV of the call atm.
Looking at all this, just my personal view is a buy of puts as low IV and low of SV. Still, there is no confirmation to see in this in the market, at least for now.
A few afternoon updates on the "DAX". The market will move during the time I make this explanations here, but the screen shots are all made around 13.30.
There are times during the day you can or even should choose to look at what the market is doing. It is not mandatory to sit the whole day in front of your screen, but follow your rules when you want to watch and make your analyses during the day. Your choice, I only can tell you how I do it: Pre market opening Europe, lunch time, pre market opening US, closing of the day Europe. This counts for the "DAX".
Morning trade time is over and how looks the market? The move up so far is done but will it continue? How to find out in a symple way or even only with a stop loss?
As you may know: There are different ways to calculate any targets in current market situations. What ever you choose, be sure to recognize that in general after big moves, there will be less moves in the market in case there is no special event world wide happening or with out any important data from any important meeting happening the next day again.
Today we have an other testifies from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Markets are again a bit nervous about this.
Now looking at the "DAX" option chain, at least at the data around atm and itm for the current months options. Check the O Interest and you will see the biggest blocks in puts at 15'100 and the biggest blocks on calls at 15'500. This, at least to me, does not look to bullish.
Going to the option "Greeks". Here the Implied Volatility "IV" is an important source. Today atm call and put at 15'500 and 16'000 are, even as different pairs, more or less at the same level. This means that, at least for the moment, there is a neutral outlook at the market situation. If you compare with yesterday, where most where bullish and I recomended the puts, you see the different. Still, the above meeting ist not done, so changes can happen in the market in the coming hours.
Let's quickly check the "Standard Volatility" SV in the future market and even here it is a bit quit, means every body is waiting for the results of the meeting.
Why do I all this bring up? In future trading you can use different tools to analyse any market and then jump into a pure future trade or in any trade strategy you may like. I prefer a game with options and futures in different ways. But this is personal choice and all you see here is to take as education on: "Future Trading and how it is done in different ways". But all sreen shots you see here are done at the time when I see markets move in a specific way. Keep this in mind.
For the moment, I see for today, at least the morning session, the DAX rather go down. My target on the downside is around 15'500 -15'480 if the whole day is a short day.
In practical trading, the trade from yesterday would have remained open overnight after I studied the US market at the end of DAX trading. There was already to see that the Indicies in the US go down. Now the logic behind it: If the US stock market goes down, the DAX will follow. Thus, the decision was clearly justified. The levels of yesterday, which I mentioned in the above posting, are also clearly reached at the moment. Here is now the question of whether profit is taken or should the trade continue? If I am with two Legs in the trade, then I take profit with one Leg of it and let the second Leg continue today, because in my opinion there is still room down.
At the moment vola is furhter rising. Targets I see in my todays calculation ((Using the 15'404 level) on the downside are at around 15'270. Max levels on the upside would be around 15'550.
On the option side you can see the loss in the calls.
The IV in the puts is quit low, what me surprises.
Last week was about from my side testing some non professional tools. This way of testing in any market is ok for me, as I do not believe in Sim accounts. Even in my earliest stages (1998) when starting trading with different stocks, I did it always in the real market with real money. At this time it was pure in the Swiss Market. When starting in the US market with a pro mentor on options and futures, it was the same. Later on in a company was an other level.
Resume:
Some links from last week, like in this case only one charting tool on the "DAX", was fast and others, specially on options and "SV" only showed mostly delayed data of at least 20 min, which is especially in early morning sessions, if may needed for fast decisions, are to be looked at with skeptics and distance.
Finally it all depends on what kind of trading ideas I have and want to implement in the traded market. But I let this stay for the moment as it is and will comment later on this point if needed.
This week I will concentrate and test what free, delayed option and charting tools will provide me on data during the day from US markets. So lets see how it goes. I mean: Decisions last week on those free tools on the "DAX" still did not make a very bad look, at least to me, as long as I know what I am looking for.
I am in contact with" Metastock" and I am in contact with "OptionVue" about reactivating at least those two professional tools. But lets see what is needed most as even my old, private broker offers me some trading tools.
Any way: Have a nice start into the new week which I see more on the southern side and less on the northern side, as the next bank debakel in the US happens.
Moody’s Investors Service cut its view on the entire banking system to negative from stable.
The big three rating firm cited a ”‘rapidly deteriorating operating environment” despite regulators’ efforts to shore up the industry.
All is green and only hope is helping at the moment that it ends finally green. Ok, the FED is printing again in the interest of the government. Some topics to this I am not allowed to post here for certain reasons I absolutely respect, but CDBM is a topic to watch. If all push this thoughts away, then I am surely become a believer of maybe propaganda I do not want to be involved in. Just my view.
