Curious if anyone is currently using MOC (Market on Close) imbalance postings in their trading? I see a few old posts from 2013 but nothing recent. I'm also curious if I missed anything on my understanding on MOC orders.

I use the market news service from Financial Juice to receive relatively live figures, and try to incorporate it into my trading. I often see MOC move the market (SPY, SPX, ES, MES, NQ etc.) on the final announcement, and usually in the opposite of final value direction.

Here's my quick understand of MOC:
- Its the net value of Market orders that will be processed at close
- Early numbers are published at 30 min before close, 20min, and 15 min.
- Final numbers are published at 10 min before close
- From what I read online, additional MOC orders in the same direction of the final imbalance are not allowed after final announcement
- All MOC orders are locked in 7 minutes before close, and cannot be added or edited


Heres an example of the published numbers on 8/4
- (30 min before close) 1. Early MOC Imbalance 155 mln sell-side.
- (20 min before close) 2. Early MOC Imbalance 155 mln sell-side.
- (15 min before close) 3. Early MOC Imbalance 155 mln sell-side.
- (10 min before close) MOC Imbalance 1.8 bln sell-side.

On 8/4, we had a massive move down from 4560 to 4498 intraday (before early MOC). I've found that intraday volatile moves eliminate or dampen the volatility that MOC brings. And we infact had a lackluster MOC, with the 3:50EST candle basically continuing the previous downtrend on the 5 min. But then bounced and closed higher than from initial MOC value.

8/4 ES prices during that time (from 1min candle close on min before)
- (30 min before close) 4502
- (20 min before close) 4496
- (15 min before close) 4495
- (10 min before close) 4496
- (9 min before close) 4494, wicked to 4493 "the MOC move"
- (Market Close) 4499

All of that to say, a larger intraday move usually means a less volatile MOC. If you go back a few days and do the same analysis, you can see that the initial MOC move usually goes in the opposite direction the final value. Then (usually again) the price action likes to reverse if the initial reaction isnt too strong / doesnt create a new trend on TA.

Does anyone else do something similar with MOC? Different at MOC? Just ignore MOC?

jlabtrades 

Curious if anyone is currently using MOC (Market on Close) imbalance postings in their trading? I see a few old posts from 2013 but nothing recent. I'm also curious if I missed anything on my understanding on MOC orders. I use the market news service from Financial Juice to receive relatively live figures, and try to incorporate it into my trading. I often see MOC move the market (SPY, SPX, ES, MES, NQ etc.) on the final announcement, and usually in the opposite of final value direction. Here's my quick understand of MOC: - Its the net value of Market orders that will be processed at close - Early numbers are published at 30 min before close, 20min, and 15 min. - Final numbers are published at 10 min before close - From what I read online, additional MOC orders in the same direction of the final imbalance are not allowed after final announcement - All MOC orders are locked in 7 minutes before close, and cannot be added or edited Heres an example of the published numbers on 8/4 - (30 min before close) 1. Early MOC Imbalance 155 mln sell-side. - (20 min before close) 2. Early MOC Imbalance 155 mln sell-side. - (15 min before close) 3. Early MOC Imbalance 155 mln sell-side. - (10 min before close) MOC Imbalance 1.8 bln sell-side. On 8/4, we had a massive move down from 4560 to 4498 intraday (before early MOC). I've found that intraday volatile moves eliminate or dampen the volatility that MOC brings. And we infact had a lackluster MOC, with the 3:50EST candle basically continuing the previous downtrend on the 5 min. But then bounced and closed higher than from initial MOC value. 8/4 ES prices during that time (from 1min candle close on min before) - (30 min before close) 4502 - (20 min before close) 4496 - (15 min before close) 4495 - (10 min before close) 4496 - (9 min before close) 4494, wicked to 4493 "the MOC move" - (Market Close) 4499 All of that to say, a larger intraday move usually means a less volatile MOC. If you go back a few days and do the same analysis, you can see that the initial MOC move usually goes in the opposite direction the final value. Then (usually again) the price action likes to reverse if the initial reaction isnt too strong / doesnt create a new trend on TA. Does anyone else do something similar with MOC? Different at MOC? Just ignore MOC?

How do you access MOC data on Financial Juice?

Thanks!'

Joseph Connors 

How do you access MOC data on Financial Juice? Thanks!'

Via Twitter https://x.com/financialjuice

MOC orders are good for a little volatility and may be used for better entries and exits, but I largely ignore them. They are like a little blip in the larger overall afternoon moves.

Mies 

Via Twitter https://x.com/financialjuice

So these are just in the form of summary news headlines? Do they have more detailed info available?

Thanks!

Joseph Connors 

So these are just in the form of summary news headlines? Do they have more detailed info available? Thanks!

They are squawked live in financial juice and posted on the web site. However, they are also nice enough to tweet the figures shortly after. There is not more detailed info, just the number.

As a quick note, I remember the very day that someone turned on their MOC algos at 3:50. It was during 2020, and I posted about it the day/week it started happening in the spoo thread, but I'm a bit too busy to dig it up right now. This is just to say that this 3:50 MOC algo has ruined the close for trading (for me anyway) for the last few years). :-| Before all of this, there was no volatility increase at 3:50.

TL;DR, IIUC, FWIW:

MOC info is mainly used by large players to hedge overnight risk.
I've always loved trading the Open but hated trading the Close. Trading against fat-finger Freddies opening, closing, or hedging large positions at EOD can put me on tilt so I try to avoid it. Not sure if MOC data is helpful to intraday traders.
I'll just throw these links in her if anyone is curious.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-much-does-the-moc-imbalance-matter-2019-09-27

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/viewpoint-a-global-perspective-on-market-on-close-activity-july-2020.pdf

Joseph Connors 

How do you access MOC data on Financial Juice? Thanks!'

twitter like shown or https://www.financialjuice.com/home

you can search for past days values using the search, or if you are doing it live you can turn on the live new squawk in top right

josh 

They are squawked live in financial juice and posted on the web site. However, they are also nice enough to tweet the figures shortly after. There is not more detailed info, just the number. As a quick note, I remember the very day that someone turned on their MOC algos at 3:50. It was during 2020, and I posted about it the day/week it started happening in the spoo thread, but I'm a bit too busy to dig it up right now. This is just to say that this 3:50 MOC algo has ruined the close for trading (for me anyway) for the last few years). :-| Before all of this, there was no volatility increase at 3:50.

Very interesting! I has assumed it was always a think

Brookwood 

Trading against fat-finger Freddies opening, closing, or hedging large positions at EOD can put me on tilt so I try to avoid it. Not sure if MOC data is helpful to intraday traders.

@Brookwood,

Your instinct to avoid it is well-founded, and the data backs you up.

The MOC imbalance publishes in stages: preliminary at 3:45 PM ET, updated at 3:49, then final at 3:50. The moment that 3:50 number drops, algorithms start hedging in ES and index futures -- which is exactly the volatility spike you're feeling. The NYSE Closing Auction processes over $18B in notional value daily (roughly 9% of total NYSE volume, up from 4% a decade ago), so the moves are real and the players are large.

The reason the pressure is so predictable: index funds and ETFs must execute at the official closing price to avoid tracking error. Predictable, though, doesn't automatically mean tradeable for retail.

As for edge -- one study of large imbalances (>$2B) found about 69% directional accuracy, but average P&L was marginal after spread costs. And since around 2020, that window has gotten even more crowded with algos. The edge that exists is largely being captured before manual traders can act on it.

Practical takeaway for ES intraday traders:

• Treat 3:50 PM as a risk management window, not an entry opportunity
• Widen stops or reduce size on existing positions before the data drops
• Don't initiate new positions into the chaos unless MOC dynamics are your specific edge

Good links -- BlackRock's 2020 ViewPoint on market-on-close activity is thorough for anyone who wants the institutional mechanics in full detail.

Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"Knowing when not to trade is a skill that takes just as long to develop as knowing when to."